Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: looks to re-emerge north of WPB, Actually MAYBE Vero Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just a reminder about the GFS and HMON over deepening tendicies that many agencies including NHC have noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 SAV hit at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: This is what scares me the most right here. It hits Miami then goes back over the Atlantic then hits the Carolinas after that. Hour 150-174 look like Georgia's streak may be coming to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just a reminder about the GFS and HMON over deepening tendicies that many agencies including NHC have noted. yeah, not buying the strength, but what are you thoughts? could still be a cat 4 in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Tack on 40 mb and it's still a disaster for Miami and Dade County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 IRMA is looking great on sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I mean lets be realistic here. Yes the GFS is most likely to be overdone on the pressure, however even if you take it and jack the pressure up 40-50mb, you are still talking about a Cat 2 re-emerging off the coast of FL, paralleling the coast of GA and based off 180, making another landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Hilton Head area of SC. This has the makings of a catastrophic and life threatening event for millions of people alone prime real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: Tack on 40 mb and it's still a disaster for Miami and Dade County. Catastrophic damage and loss of life if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Decent trough swinging into the upper Midwest on this run... will be interesting to see if/how it interacts with Irma after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 That is a significant shift north, means a ton of difference for Florida and further north. If it went into Cuba like 6Z GFS said, it wouldn't be as strong, with little Cuba interaction far worse. Also looks more like the Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah, not buying the strength, but what are you thoughts? could still be a cat 4 in that area? I've been away so sort of watching this from afar. But I certainly would watch it I I lived in S FL too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Ignore pressure forecasts! They have never been accurate. Just know it's very likely to be a major hurricane upon landfall, that's enough to consider at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Decent trough swinging into the upper Midwest on this run... will be interesting to see if/how it interacts with Irma after landfall. yep....completely non-existent on 06z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Question, due to this being a large spread out cane, would the downsloping off the Cuba mts aid in the dryslotting on the SE quadrant as it starts its turn toward SoFL weakening it a bit, versus a more compact cane that would have minimal impacts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Goin to merge with front in great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 To top it, post landfall, it takes a terrible track for the mountains of NC and SW VA. Would be mega rainfall with the amount of forcing being pushed up against the mountains to generate heavy upslope rainfall in prone areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: yep....completely non-existent on 06z run... So does the trough help to pull the storm more NW once making a second landfall in GA/SC or does it help boot it out? Looks like it would help pull the storm in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Decent trough swinging into the upper Midwest on this run... will be interesting to see if/how it interacts with Irma after landfall. Saw that too... Probably gonna pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Still huge run to run differences in the upper level pattern > 120 hrs ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just a reminder about the GFS and HMON over deepening tendicies that many agencies including NHC have noted. This. Also the initial GFS pressure looks a little high. Doesn't have it down to the current pressure until passing the islands. Gives me GFDL flashbacks from 15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, WesterlyWx said: So does the trough help to pull the storm more NW once making a second landfall in GA/SC or does it help boot it out? Looks like it would help pull the storm in more. Verbatim, it would probably cause a more northward (but still slightly nw'ward) movement vs. the last 4 runs of the GFS....ie would head into PA/NY states vs. buried into WV/TN/KY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: So does the trough help to pull the storm more NW once making a second landfall in GA/SC or does it help boot it out? Looks like it would help pull the storm in more. The trend after LF would be a drop to less than Cat 1 in less than 24 hours. The rains will be a huge issue along with uprooted trees. Also, numerous category 1 tornadoes in the front right quarter. This will be a fast mover so no 30"+ rains as with Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12Z Canadian has a further east track from south florida all the way along and up the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Pressure obviously isn't realistic overall, but that run seems a lot more realistic than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Verbatim, it would probably cause a more northward (but still slightly nw'ward) movement vs. the last 4 runs of the GFS....ie would head into PA/NY states vs. buried into WV/TN/KY.... 2 minutes ago, winterymix said: The trend after LF would be a drop to less than Cat 1 in less than 24 hours. The rains will be a huge issue along with uprooted trees. Also, numerous category 1 tornadoes in the front right quarter. This will be a fast mover so no 30"+ rains as with Harvey. So theoretically she could still be a high end TS up in PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Turns into one hell of a great lakes storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Question, due to this being a large spread out cane, would the downsloping off the Cuba mts aid in the dryslotting on the SE quadrant as it starts its turn toward SoFL weakening it a bit, versus a more compact cane that would have minimal impacts? Storms don't have to be right over Cuba to feel the impacts of the mountains. Dry air entrainment is possible even likely to some degree, but the water is warm and the general airmass will be favorable so disruptions will likely be somewhat minimal if the core stays 30, 40 or 50 miles north of land in Cuba. There will likely be some impact though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Quite the H5 change in the Pacific between hr 156 at 12z, and 162 at 6z. ULL in SOCAL is south while the GOAK trough is sharper. This allowed for that trough to dig in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Meanwhile, Irma continues to look better on IR/VIS stat. loops....I continue to believe CAT 4 attainment will be reached within 6-8 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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