weathafella Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I'd rather Ray melt vs me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'd rather Ray melt vs me. What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 51 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: LOL! I haven't melted that bad that I'm actually going to move up north. Actually we are building a house in boscawen and on a great piece of land on a little hilltop so excited about that but it's not going to really change my climate at all from Webster. I'm more interested in where to go when there's upslope snow in the mountains. When I've been to Whitefield it's really A shiat hole for snow while 15 minutes away in Randolph is awesome. if I can find a good hotel or nice inn or something I can go up there and spend the night and hang out when there's a Big upslope storm. I'm pretty sure Alex mentioned building cabins on his property in Bretton Woods, there is one option, maybe you can get an Americanwx discount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What do you mean? CJs are ok IMBY, 128 specials naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 I tend to agree with Jerry ...whether he knows his better argument or not (haha) seriously... all you need is couple shallow latitude bombs, to sneak off the Jersey coast, the kind that dump 15" on ORH and 1" on ALB ...They traverse the quintessential 1.5 D S of LI (climo favored), with a pisser frontogenic mid level meso band or two. Suddenly, all those blanked statements regarding idiosyncratic nuance in various shorter and longer termed Teleconnector influences, land, air or extra-terrestrial in origin, ...look pretty poorly correlated. Which they should, both intuitively and logically. First of all, including "incoherent MJOs" together in the same list/sentence as "solar min" is entirely flawed logic ... for a few reason. You can't conflate those, because if anything, their respective correlation on modulating winter patterns are NOT linear. For one, MJO are not 'coherent' during preceding Octobers or Novembers, when winter predictions are typically made. The wave is intrinsically dynamic/stochastic, and cannot be ascertained in either time or space at those sort of long leads. So saying creating a sentiment that the MJO anything is false. As to solar min, that's a decadal phenomenon ... it certainly doesn't direct a seasonal variability. You could certainly argue that it factorable/contributory... but "how" so is still in research. Solar mins are highly correlated to SSWs ...which supports cold and storminess down to middle latitudes, and directly oppose using that in present context. The +QBO, okay, ...but, if there were never an SSW during a +QBO that would be another thing. Anyway, my point being ...there were just as many factors back on Dec ...10 or so, that argued for a better second half? I think that's entirely fair.. I think the more responsible less heavy handed observation is that there's more to all this than we/science can quantify as causal, and sometimes what precipitates out of the chaos of all that uncertainty...it's just not going to snow every winter, as much as we like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is a small, but densely populated area NW of Boston that is below avg. I have 18.5" Glad we don't live there......wait? Yeah this has been a below average year here to logan (where the records are kept) and we will start to fall behind pretty fast once we're into FEB if it doesn't pickup soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Euro not as deep as the Canadian. Clipper around the 1st is further N across C/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I tend to agree with Jerry ...whether he knows his better argument or not (haha) seriously... all you need is couple shallow latitude bombs, to sneak off the Jersey coast, the kind that dump 15" on ORH and 1" on ALB ...They traverse the quintessential 1.5 D S of LI (climo favored), with a pisser frontogenic mid level meso band or two. Suddenly, all those blanked statements regarding idiosyncratic nuance in various shorter and longer termed Teleconnector influences, land, air or extra-terrestrial in origin, ...look pretty poorly correlated. Which they should, both intuitively and logically. First of all, including "incoherent MJOs" together in the same list/sentence as "solar min" is entirely flawed logic ... for a few reason. You can't conflate those, because if anything, their respective correlation on modulating winter patterns are NOT linear. For one, MJO are not 'coherent' during preceding Octobers or Novembers, when winter predictions are typically made. The wave is intrinsically dynamic/stochastic, and cannot be ascertained in either time or space at those sort of long leads. So saying creating a sentiment that the MJO anything is false. As to solar min, that's a decadal phenomenon ... it certainly doesn't direct a seasonal variability. You could certainly argue that it factorable/contributory... but "how" so is still in research. Solar mins are highly correlated to SSWs ...which supports cold and storminess down to middle latitudes, and directly oppose using that in present context. The +QBO, okay, ...but, if there were never an SSW during a +QBO that would be another thing. Anyway, my point being ...there were just as many factors back on Dec ...10 or so, that argued for a better second half? I think that's entirely fair.. I think the more responsible less heavy handed observation is that there's more to all this than we/science can quantify as causal, and sometimes what precipitates out of the chaos of all that uncertainty...it's just not going to snow every winter, as much as we like. Amen to this. Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Hazey said: This winter it has been tough to gain any traction which is giving the illusion of it being crappy. Most are running near average with regards to snowfall to date. These long lulls between wintery weather systems and the warmups have been grinding. I suspected that this winter would not be good for snowpack retention and that appears to be the case...well atleast in my hood. Perhaps this will be one of the winters that despite average snowfall, will be quickly put in the rearview and forgotten easily. Still half way to go. No illusion in my neck of the woods. Just coming off of a lovely 24+ rain storm that only adds to what seems to be one rainer after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: All that voodoo indicies stuff is only a very small part of things. No one thought it would be a cold winter simply due to Nina. Jerry is talking snowfall. SNE and NYC are at or AN which is all anyone cares about. Not everyone. Getting my average snowfall in between 38 degree rainfalls by the time April has come and gone with hardly any snow on the ground for significant periods of times sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 19 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah i think its a long short. Suppression depression until the end of jan. Euro looking a bit better for YYT for the Monday/Tuesday s/w eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Big trough out W at day 10 on the Op Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 The Clipper/Coastal storm on the 30th/31st looks better on the models, the EURO actually closes off for a time at H5, trough sharper and deeper, needs a few more ticks to the northwest to hit us, but trends are on our side. Plus another 4 days until the shortwave is sampled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 That's one to watch. The flow relaxes over the Gulf/Florida. The 582 dm isotach ...sort of a bench mark, has receded S in latitude and the 'gap' between that contour and the 576 dm isotach has widened. That means the compression as a factor, is less negative interfering... If it holds, that trough gets ejected out of the west into an inherent +PNAP (even if low amplitude at that time) and suddenly we have something to track that isn't instead getting absorbed by an already azz hauler crazy gradient. Question is, does it hold? I started noticing attempts to relax those southern heights about three weeks ago, but it seems the models were/are rushing that, if it happens at all... Maybe now that will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's one to watch. The flow relaxes over the Gulf/Florida. The 582 dm isotach ...sort of a bench mark, has receded S in latitude and the 'gap' between that contour and the 576 dm isotach has widened. That means the compression as a factor, is less negative interfering... If it holds, that trough gets ejected out of the west into an inherent +PNAP (even if low amplitude at that time) and suddenly we have something to track that isn't instead getting absorbed by an already azz hauler crazy gradient. Question is, does it hold? I started noticing attempts to relax those southern heights about three weeks ago, but it seems the models were/are rushing that, if it happens at all... Maybe now that will work out. Which one Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 James, the la-la range ... D9-11... Not so much because that depiction has any prayer of really evolving as the model has it... but, the flow observation is one more conducive to actually bringing events east without as much off-setting/negative interference. As far as the 28th - the 31st ...yeeeeah, there's impulses there, but they are not rippling through a flow that supports amplitude S of the 40th latitude/parallel...anywhere east of the Rockies. As I said earlier, the higher compression/fast balanced flow supports shallower latitude systems, but they also have to be quite strong still. It's really not complicated...it's just that writing it out is tough in cohesive, easy to understand short sentences. If the flow, overall, has a lot of (too many) lines in it, that means that well prior to any arrival of a short wave in that flow, the wind velocities are in an agitated/higher than normal static flow. Short wave tries to move through the flow with it's own wind maximum, and, the wind max ends up with smaller amount of differential positive vorticity advection, ...which then means weak negative omega, which means weaker lift in the synoptic scale, which means...less inflowing/restoring mechanics (jets) and...weaker systems prevail. One has to go through the atmospheric equations of motions (which tie in thermodynamics with fluid mechanics and the Coriolis force...) to fuller grasp; just trust me, too many lines "outside" the S/W its self isn't good. It's just that it's hard to resist the temptation to get all giddy when we see a big curvi-linear bulge out west and very low heights coring out an atmospheric singularity over southern James Bay ...but, that can just as well become too much of a good thing if the ratio of lines in the flow reflect too much gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Tip, the EURO is better amplified for the 28-31st time frame shortwave, the main shortwave trough is more amped than the previous shortwaves were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: James, the la-la range ... D9-11... Not so much because that depiction has any prayer of really evolving as the model has it... but, the flow observation is one more conducive to actually bringing events east without as much off-setting/negative interference. As far as the 28th - the 31st ...yeeeeah, there's impulses there, but they are not rippling through a flow that supports amplitude S of the 40th latitude/parallel...anywhere east of the Rockies. As I said earlier, the higher compression/fast balanced flow supports shallower latitude systems, but they also have to be quite strong still. It's really not complicated...it's just that writing it out is tough in cohesive, easy to understand short sentences. If the flow, overall, has a lot of line in it, that means the well prior to any arrival of a short wave in that flow, the wind velocities are in an agitated/higher than normal static flow. Short wave tries to move through the flow with it's own wind maximum, and, the wind max ends up with smaller amount of differential positive vorticity advection, ...which then means weak negative omega, which means weaker lift in the synoptic scale, which means...less inflowing/restoring mechanics (jets) and...we systems prevail. One has to go through the atmospheric equations of motions (which tie in thermodynamics with fluid mechanics and the Coriolis force...) to fuller grasp; just trust me, too many lines "outside" the S/W its self isn't good. Yeah, I see that Day 10 panel and I see that trough out W breaking off from the mean flow out of the NW allowing the cold to build out of Canada in the Midwest and into the E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Tip, the EURO is better amplified for the 28-31st time frame shortwave, the main shortwave trough is more amped than the previous shortwaves were. Trough axix is waaaaaaay to far E to alow for any amplification before it hit us. That storm has a better shot at hitting NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, I see that Day 10 panel and I see that trough out W breaking off from the mean flow out of the NW allowing the cold to build out of Canada in the Midwest and into the E. Yup ...pretty much. It's as much about visualization game that is balanced with experience and education ... whatever the ratios should be there, if done in sufficient measure you can start calling out vulnerable periods that are more or less valid in the latter mids and extended ranges... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 Interesting... The CDC doesn't reflect the CPC's PNA evolution beyond the first planned spike in the PNA slated to max out in five or so days. Both have the five day (or so) max, then part company beyond., The CDC then drops the index less than 0 SD; while simultaneously flagging a modestly favorable NP (weak -WPO/-EPO) ... so, something there is a tad off a little with CDC - it could work out that way, but it's not an entirely stable circulation medium.. The CPC, on the other hand, has a secondary PNA rising toward a max out there beyond D10, which is actually a better fit for the CDC's AB Pacific in that range. If you follow this...just say "O, I C" J/k... But a secondary PNA would be a nice signal for the the first 10 days of February... particularly happening in a medium that has antecedent cold and source to work with. Particularly (again) if the flow does relax some down S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Euro not as deep as the Canadian. Clipper around the 1st is further N across C/NNE. Seems like most guidance has it in some form... obviously differing in intensity and location. CMC was a nice way to get a good snow event down here out of it. Track it south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Nice changes on the EPS today. Finally they show a nice look 11-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice changes on the EPS today. Finally they show a nice look 11-15 Finally? I feel like they've looked good out in the extended for a while now....the change in pattern for end of January they showed about a week ago looks pretty good to verify, and the huge EPO ridge has shown up more recently in the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I was just looking at the New England snow table and realized, that although winter has seemed pretty meh' out here, that is only due to the lack of sustained cold or big events. Nobody from Greenfield north and west should be complaining too much. Sure, January has been disappointing but December was pretty damn good as MPM, Lurker and I Have had 50% or better snow cover in our yards for almost 6 or 7 weeks. I miss the cold and the confidence it brings for pond ice safety but it doesn't look like this winter is going to feature much in the way of record cold snaps. I've burned almost 1/3 less wood to date,this winter over last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I was just looking at the New England snow table and realized, that although winter has seemed pretty meh' out here, that is only due to the lack of sustained cold or big events. Nobody from Greenfield north and west should be complaining too much. Sure, January has been disappointing but December was pretty damn good as MPM, Lurker and I Have had 50% or better snow cover in our yards for almost 6 or 7 weeks. I miss the cold and the confidence it brings for pond ice safety but it doesn't look like this winter is going to feature much in the way of record cold snaps. I've burned almost 1/3 less wood to date,this winter over last. Ummm, don't mention that to eyewall or Apache Trout or me, for that matter. Pretty sure that north and west of you, away from the mountains, is having a poor, at best, winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, mreaves said: Ummm, don't mention that to eyewall or Apache Trout or me, for that matter. Pretty sure that north and west of you, away from the mountains, is having a poor, at best, winter. From Ryan Breton Ski Country Mt. Washington - 147" Wildcat - 111" Cannon - 95" Waterville Valley - 90" Bretton Woods - 85" Attitash - 59" King Pine - 54" Northern New Hampshire Pinkham Notch - 75" Randolph - 75" Madison - 52" Jackson - 52" Colebrook - 48" North Conway - 47" North Stratford - 43" Jefferson - 43" Berlin - 40" Lancaster - 36" Central New Hampshire East Wakefield - 57" East Sandwich - 52" Center Sandwich - 49" Tamworth - 45" Hopkinton - 43" Strafford - 43" Northfield - 40" West Unity - 40" Laconia - 39" Meredith - 39" Northwood - 37" Belmont - 36" Bristol - 36" Concord - 32" Southern New Hampshire Bow - 41" Northwood - 37" Greenville - 36" Weare - 35" Keene - 32" Manchester - 30" Auburn - 30" Dunbarton - 29" Hudson - 28" East Milford - 27" Nashua - 26" Epping - 26" Dover 26" Hollis - 24" Salem - 19" Stratham - 19" Greenland - 19" Durham - 18" Exeter - 18" North Hampton - 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I was just looking at the New England snow table and realized, that although winter has seemed pretty meh' out here, that is only due to the lack of sustained cold or big events. Nobody from Greenfield north and west should be complaining too much. Sure, January has been disappointing but December was pretty damn good as MPM, Lurker and I Have had 50% or better snow cover in our yards for almost 6 or 7 weeks. I miss the cold and the confidence it brings for pond ice safety but it doesn't look like this winter is going to feature much in the way of record cold snaps. I've burned almost 1/3 less wood to date,this winter over last. If it isn't epic... it's meh. Given the talk in some of these threads... you would think most people haven't seen a flake this year, which obviously isn't the case. A lot of people.... from ORH area down to Eastern Conn and all of eastern ma have been on a pretty epic multi year run in the averages. This skews people's thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 I only need about 15 inches to reach annual average. Still on track to finish above average given that Feb is historically our snowiest month down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, mreaves said: Ummm, don't mention that to eyewall or Apache Trout or me, for that matter. Pretty sure that north and west of you, away from the mountains, is having a poor, at best, winter. Yeah, I guess I was sort of thinking from here to S//W VT. You guys have been sort of screwed. I'm sure the folks in E NY are not exactly thrilled either. That being said, none of us in that group have experienced the potential bliss, of a slow moving coastal in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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