moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: LOL. I'm losing faith in this winter being anything more than average. I'll need to confirm where I stand, but I think I'll need 30+" to get there. Certainly attainable but I could just as easily miss. I came strong out of the gate but the momentum is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I am somewhere around 33 or 34 inches of snow/sleet for the season. 50-50 if I get to the average of 70ish. Jeff should get his, you are in same boat as me. Most of SNE probably gets their's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 winters with somewhat similar personalities: 1959-60 1996-97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: 2 winters with somewhat similar personalities: 1959-60 1996-97 I think we go big late, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 The end of Jan potential still has enough ensemble support to keep me interested. 6z gefs looked ok for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we go big late, too. Ray, meaning bigger storms? February ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray, meaning bigger storms? February ? I originally thought Jan and March, but Jan. just hasn't worked out....so I guess Feb. or March. I do think we get some NAO assist eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 The way I see it, weakening pv will lead to a -ao/nao combo to deliever a huge backloaded winter for most of the east coast. For how long it stays though is to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hazey said: The end of Jan potential still has enough ensemble support to keep me interested. 6z gefs looked ok for this far out. Good luck with that. I think Jan. is skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I originally thought Jan and March, but Jan. just hasn't worked out....so I guess Feb. or March. I do think we get some NAO assist eventually. thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Guidance is trying hard to drop the AO and NAO in the 11-15 day. Rather pleasing to see. We'll see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 DT is excited about next week. Maybe we can steal something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 I'm seeing a pretty significant caveat for pattern favorability coming up ... Beyond a week from now, there's now multi-cycle consistency for the PNA to neutralize, while perhaps relaying into a modest -EPO signal, which the operational version seems to hit the latter EPO, harder - interesting. After having evaluated the individual members ... I think the differences come down to handling the flow during a general "theme", where said theme is what is paramount: heights should remain ridgy if not blocky in the west. That idea is better reflected when looking over the indexes provided by the CPC in this case, because those/their index values are derived using mid level geopotential height anomalies. If the heights are sort of fragmented in the west, with portions migrating into a ridge node over the Alaskan sector, while mid latitudes farther south show more zonal tendencies... that would tip the low level mass flux anomalies (CDC) in favor of a -PNA, which obviously takes a bit of a backseat to -EPOs of sufficient strength. The operational run, DEFINITELY has had consistency with EPO islands up there. So the take away there is that cold loading into the Canadian shield should be robuster more so than not. Just on the surface we think, 'ha! more cold - good'... Yeeeah, yes and no though. The problem and caveat (which by the way is wonderfully illustrated by the product Brian presented above that shows the evolution of the Feb 5-7 1978 blizzard) is that in 2017 January, the heights across the entire breadth of the southern tier are some degree above normal. This is unilaterally the case from ...well, south of Japan all the way around to the Sargasso Sea. We keep referring a lot of the limitations on the winter thus far as "...the SE ridge" ... It's true that there is a default ridge, but it doesn't really reflect what's actually in crisis with this winter. The problem is that warm-ish height anomalies are more pervasive than just the SE ridge. Southeast ridging can materialize when the medium is more normal, and cause the same limitation - so, we sort of dance around and call it the same thing but it's not really. If you look at Brian's loop above, you can see that the southern heights medium in general ...and this is important, as it exists beneath the shenanigans of the westerlies, is really not much higher than 576 dm other than occasional very transient Rosby roll-throughs. Why that is a problem and caveat now is because, as the EPO tips negative, that higher height tendency down south abuts it and that creates the same damn problem with 'too much gradient' overall. The wind velocities physically starts screaming, and that intrinsically becomes a destructive interference wrt to individual features that would otherwise create storms. ..shear. It can storm in that scenario.. .but they tend to be shallower in latitude and move very quickly. I would like for NJ type lows there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: DT is excited about next week. Maybe we can steal something I think trough axis is too progressive, but we'll see. At least through 1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: DT is excited about next week. Maybe we can steal something There is a storm there, it's just well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 DT says the only way there is a siggy storm is if the sw energy comes out and phases. We can look at that and see if that energy shows signs of moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Can't rule out that system next week, but it needs some work. Going forward though we should have chances even if that one doesn't materialize. That's a pretty poleward EPO ridge out in the 11-15...so we're gonna restore our cold source very well...finally get rid of the putrid muck that has plagued us since a few days after the coastal storm a couple weeks ago that dropped all the snow in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Can't rule out that system next week, but it needs some work. Going forward though we should have chances even if that one doesn't materialize. That's a pretty poleward EPO ridge out in the 11-15...so we're gonna restore our cold source very well...finally get rid of the putrid muck that has plagued us since a few days after the coastal storm a couple weeks ago that dropped all the snow in SE MA. Definitely agree with that much ... The fetid polar... actually, wasn't even 'polar' - I don't know what you call that... how about cooled off industrial exhaust -haha. Whatever it was it was no good for any possible application to any corporeality walking the Earth. From beady -eyed obsessive turbo weather nerds to vapid Valley girls that couldn't define the word weather and back, no living soul could benefit from that air mass. Truly a remarkable accomplishment in pure unredeaming - I just hope that with heights remaining pervasively high-ish in the deep south, that we don't end up gradient surplussed - if we do, we'll get that same thing going that happened back before the era of fetid air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 12z EURO keeps and potential "storm" before the end of the month well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I heard that good things happen around the 8th of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: I heard that good things happen around the 8th of February. Epicosity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 There is a clipper system on Day 8/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Can't rule out that system next week, but it needs some work. Going forward though we should have chances even if that one doesn't materialize. That's a pretty poleward EPO ridge out in the 11-15...so we're gonna restore our cold source very well...finally get rid of the putrid muck that has plagued us since a few days after the coastal storm a couple weeks ago that dropped all the snow in SE MA. I'm out on that one- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 A long shot chance Mon/Tue... a few GEFS members try for a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: I heard that good things happen around the 8th of February. Better things on the 10th, just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, CT Rain said: A long shot chance Mon/Tue... a few GEFS members try for a miller B. Yes that's the one I have been eyeing. You're right, it's a long shot but it's all we have at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Better things on the 10th, just sayin Big one this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 hours ago, Hazey said: Yes that's the one I have been eyeing. You're right, it's a long shot but it's all we have at the moment. Yeah i think its a long short. Suppression depression until the end of jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Hope it's rain. #endthisdroughtonthecp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, 8611Blizz said: Hope it's rain. #endthisdroughtonthecp It's ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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