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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There's not a lot of places I'd want to live in the Whites that get decent upslope snow. Obviously Pittsburg does really well, but there's not much for a livability factor. The higher els E of HIE are OK, but they don't get the upslope you do at the elevations where there are actually residential homes. My QPF hole here is bad enough...I couldn't handle the one around HIE.

Yeah the only spot I've seen is Alex's 1,500ft spot at Bretton Woods.

But I don't know the region around there.  And I'm like you...I couldn't live there. Too remote.  At least over here you've got BTV and MPV within quick access...and I haven't been near Jackson/Conway area but I'd assume its similar to the Stowe/Waterbury region with tons of restaurants and actual things to do that feel more urban in a rural setting.

 

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Models continue to be pretty robust for several rounds of upslope snow though...should be interesting to see what totals are by Sunday.  This could be fairly decent as the first round tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning is a wetter snow for the mountains (maybe even starting as rain in town) but models are healthy with up to half inch QPF for the mountains. 

The second one on Friday afternoon through Saturday morning looks best with good snow growth and some of the models really go to town. 

Could be interesting...wouldn't surprise me to see 12" over a 3 day period.  If ratios and a good upslope band develops that's the stuff that drops a quick 6-8" overnight or something too.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the only spot I've seen is Alex's 1,500ft spot at Bretton Woods.

But I don't know the region around there.  And I'm like you...I couldn't live there. Too remote.  At least over here you've got BTV and MPV within quick access...and I haven't been near Jackson/Conway area but I'd assume its similar to the Stowe/Waterbury region with tons of restaurants and actual things to do that feel more urban in a rural setting.

 

Gorham to Jackson on 26 is just beautiful with magnificent views and very close to Noth Conway which has all the fixings. Myself I like being close but far enough away from traffic and such. North Conway is a resort nightmare. 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Models continue to be pretty robust for several rounds of upslope snow though...should be interesting to see what totals are by Sunday.  This could be fairly decent as the first round tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning is a wetter snow for the mountains (maybe even starting as rain in town) but models are healthy with up to half inch QPF for the mountains. 

The second one on Friday afternoon through Saturday morning looks best with good snow growth and some of the models really go to town. 

Could be interesting...wouldn't surprise me to see 12" over a 3 day period.  If ratios and a good upslope band develops that's the stuff that drops a quick 6-8" overnight or something too.

yes this is a Greens pattern coming up with LES streamers too.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gorham to Jackson on 26 is just beautiful with magnificent views and very close to Noth Conway which has all the fixings. Myself I like being close but far enough away from traffic and such. North Conway is a resort nightmare. 

When my father was looking for a place to buy, we almost ended up with the White Deer Motel in North Conway.

Thank god that fell through. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winds gusted 50-65mph regionally..and there was quite a bit of tree and power line damage

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Winds weren't super strong, but powerful for a prolonged time. 

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got what I was expecting. The wind, while impressive, was not disruptive.

 

The winds were not quite as strong as I expected.  They certainly were not region wide.  The 50+ was mainly in southeast Mass and along the coast and over the ocean

 

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                        GUST            OF
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...
   BRISTOL                 47   636 AM  1/24  TRAINED SPOTTER

MASSACHUSETTS

...ANZ232...
   10 N FISHERS LANDING    49   450 AM  1/24  BUOY 44020

...ANZ235...
   6 WSW CUTTYHUNK         51   100 AM  1/24  BUZM3 BUOY

...ANZ250...
   8 SSE BASS ROCKS        49   804 AM  1/24  BUOY 44029

...ANZ251...
   8 NNE MINOT             49   350 AM  1/24  BUOY 44013

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   WELLFLEET               59   900 PM  1/23  MESONET
   PROVINCETOWN            51   209 AM  1/24  AIRPORT
   MARSTONS MILLS          48  1028 PM  1/23  HAM RADIO
   NORTH TRURO             47   324 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   FALL RIVER              49   236 AM  1/24  NOS BLTM3
   WESTPORT                48   242 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO

...DUKES COUNTY...
   AQUINNAH                49  1137 PM  1/23  HAM RADIO
   EDGARTOWN               48   721 PM  1/23  HAM RADIO
   3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      46   835 PM  1/23  MVY AIRPORT

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   ROCKPORT                62   155 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO
   PLUM ISLAND             60   614 AM  1/24  NONE
   GLOUCESTER              58   100 AM  1/24  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 NE LAWRENCE           48   829 AM  1/24  LWM ASOS
   NEWBURYPORT             48   353 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   2 ESE NANTUCKET         50   733 PM  1/23  ACK ASOS
   NANTUCKET               48   418 AM  1/24  NOS NTKM3

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   3 SSW MILTON            61   504 AM  1/24  MQE ASOS
   WRENTHAM                53   223 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO
   BROOKLINE               51   638 PM  1/23  HAM RADIO

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   1 N EAST BOSTON         52   335 AM  1/24  BOS ASOS
   WINTHROP                52   452 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO
   CHESTNUT HILL           49   158 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   3 WNW WORCESTER         46   204 AM  1/24  ORH ASOS

RHODE ISLAND

...ANZ236...
   2 SSW NAG CREEK         46   400 AM  1/24  NOS PTCR1

...KENT COUNTY...
   2 NNW WARWICK           46   644 AM  1/24  PVD ASOS

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   POTTER COVE             46   400 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   CHARLESTOWN             61   937 PM  1/23  HAM RADIO
   WESTERLY                59   301 AM  1/24  HAM RADIO
   BLOCK ISLAND            58   656 PM  1/23  BLOCK ISLAND JETTY
   2 SSE WESTERLY          46   451 AM  1/24  WST ASOS
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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jackson 

 

Yeah I'd pick that over Conway for weather anyway...higher elevation but still in a ridiculous CAD/snow retention spot. Even further up the road is Pinkham Notch (about the weeniest spot there is) but you can't really live there...there's no housing.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Exactly. The 28th signal . I didn't post about a blockbuster massive storm like you said 

I don't think the signal was ever huge though...it was a hint of something then, but far from a golden nugget in the ensembles.

 

Early February looks more active to me...we'll have the airmass too...the only negative is the trough axis is far enough west that cutters are a legit possibility...but in this pattern, no risk, no reward.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah I'd pick that over Conway for weather anyway...higher elevation but still in a ridiculous CAD/snow retention spot. Even further up the road is Pinkham Notch (about the weeniest spot there is) but you can't really live there...there's no housing.

Head up into the Carter Notch Rd.  Elevation is around 2000'

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

I'm just upset because I was so sure we were in for a wire to wire blockbuster once we got through December.  I'm embarrassed at the level of my bust because in each previous instance I shouted big winter snow wise it happened (see 2010-11 and 2014-15).

Dude none of the signals were there this time. We have a strong stratospheric PV, a +QBO/solar min, colder waters in the GoA, incoherent MJO, displaced Aleutian ridge. Read Isotherm in NYC thread. The pattern has been obvious.

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2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Dude none of the signals were there this time. We have a strong stratospheric PV, a +QBO/solar min, colder waters in the GoA, inciherent MJO, displaced Aleutian ridge. Read Isotherm in NYC thread. The pattern has been obvious.

NYC and the mid Atlantic is not New England . . Different weather different climates 

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This winter it has been tough to gain any traction which is giving the illusion of it being crappy. Most are running near average with regards to snowfall to date. These long lulls between wintery weather systems and the warmups have been grinding. I suspected that this winter would not be good for snowpack retention and that appears to be the case...well atleast in my hood. Perhaps this will be one of the winters that despite average snowfall, will be quickly put in the rearview and forgotten easily. Still half way to go. 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NYC and the mid Atlantic is not New England . . Different weather different climates 

Temperatures are running way above average this winter in both places. NNE is actually farther above normal in temps than NYC: BTV is like +11 while NYC is +7. But the same SE ridge/-AAM/+QBO pattern is affecting both places.

Just now, Hazey said:

This winter it has been tough to gain any traction which is giving the illusion of it being crappy. Most are running near average with regards to snowfall to date. These long lulls between wintery weather systems and the warmups have been grinding. I suspected that this winter would not be good for snowpack retention and that appears to be the case...well atleast in my hood. Perhaps this will be one of the winters that despite average snowfall, will be quickly put in the rearview and forgotten easily. Still half way to go. 

Snowfall is only one indicator of the harshness of a winter. This year, we have above average temperatures with below average snow cover. Those aspects of a winter are just as important as overall inches of snowfall in determining how harsh a winter is.

There have been plenty of winters with average to above average snowfall that weren't very good. 71-72 had average snowfall in NYC but all the storms mixed and the snow didn't stick around; it is perceived as a poor winter. Last year the blizzard brought us above average snowfall, but it was one day and the rest of the winter was poor.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Oh shiat...Mark is looking for a new place.

If I moved Mark...I'd probably head NE up to the NH side of IZG around North Conway. You average more snow and you get CAD and snow preservation that is just as good, if not better. The upslope spots in the Whites would be too frustrating for me with E flow. Also, in the summer you can get some torchy near 100F days up there with compressional flow off of the Presidentials. There's good rad cooling too.

 LOL! I haven't melted that bad that I'm actually going to move up north. Actually we are building a house in boscawen and on a great piece of land on a little hilltop so excited about that but it's not going to really change my climate at all from Webster. I'm more interested in where to go when there's upslope snow in the mountains. When I've been to Whitefield it's really A shiat hole for snow while 15 minutes away in Randolph is awesome.  if I can find a good hotel or nice inn or something I can go up there and spend the night and hang out when there's a Big upslope storm.

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5 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Temperatures are running way above average this winter in both places. NNE is actually farther above normal in temps than NYC: BTV is like +11 while NYC is +7. But the same SE ridge/-AAM/+QBO pattern is affecting both places.

Snowfall is only one indicator of the harshness of a winter. This year, we have above average temperatures with below average snow cover. Those aspects of a winter are just as important as overall inches of snowfall in determining how harsh a winter is.

There have been plenty of winters with average to above average snowfall that weren't very good. 71-72 had average snowfall in NYC but all the storms mixed and the snow didn't stick around; it is perceived as a poor winter. Last year the blizzard brought us above average snowfall, but it was one day and the rest of the winter was poor.

All that voodoo indicies stuff is only a very small part of things. No one thought it would be a cold winter simply due to Nina. Jerry is talking snowfall. SNE and NYC are at or AN which is all anyone cares about.

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9 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Temperatures are running way above average this winter in both places. NNE is actually farther above normal in temps than NYC: BTV is like +11 while NYC is +7. But the same SE ridge/-AAM/+QBO pattern is affecting both places.

Snowfall is only one indicator of the harshness of a winter. This year, we have above average temperatures with below average snow cover. Those aspects of a winter are just as important as overall inches of snowfall in determining how harsh a winter is.

There have been plenty of winters with average to above average snowfall that weren't very good. 71-72 had average snowfall in NYC but all the storms mixed and the snow didn't stick around; it is perceived as a poor winter. Last year the blizzard brought us above average snowfall, but it was one day and the rest of the winter was poor.

Well you are getting subjective. I agree with you that the harshness level is what makes it memorable but there are those folks out there that it's all about the numbers. Doesn't matter what the winter "felt" like. It's the final total that goes in the books that counts. I can see both arguments as being valid. Personally I'm more about the tenor of the winter vs the finally tally but that's me. 

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1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Pittsburg is a horrible place for snow.  Who wants to get 150 inches in 1 to 3" increments?  I think the novelty of having to clean off your car and scrape the driveway would wear off after the 60th "event" in early Feb.

Wouldn't it be more fun to get your season total in 5-6 storms?

Agree.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All that voodoo indicies stuff is only a very small part of things. No one thought it would be a cold winter simply due to Nina. Jerry is talking snowfall. SNE and NYC are at or AN which is all anyone cares about.

There is a small, but densely populated area NW of Boston that is below avg.

I have 18.5"

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is a small, but densely populated area NW of Boston that is below avg.

I have 18.5"

BOS itself is below average too...your area to BOS is kind of the hole so far this year. BOS kind of got shafted relatively speaking in the Jan 7th storm.

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anything actually materialize, or is it one of those H5 blizzards?

Yeah its like a high end advisory or low end warning event...but obviously take it for what it's worth at d7.

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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

Dude none of the signals were there this time. We have a strong stratospheric PV, a +QBO/solar min, colder waters in the GoA, incoherent MJO, displaced Aleutian ridge. Read Isotherm in NYC thread. The pattern has been obvious.

You worked similar arguments in 2010-11 and my comment was -see you in April.   When I thought a ratter was incoming in 2011-12 you were highly skeptical.  There's more to SNE winters.  This time you MAY be correct.  I just look at ratter winters when I was growing up in the same metro area you are and probably with equivalent snow climo  (Teaneck vs Dobbs Ferry) and note in several cases SNE including BOS/BDL did well. So we can't apply the same things.  I was dead wrong but snow retention is not a credible judgement as it is subjective.  Total snowfall is the holy grail.  A warm snowy winter ala 2012-13 would be perfect to me.

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