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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Finally? I feel like they've looked good out in the extended for a while now....the change in pattern for end of January they showed about a week ago looks pretty good to verify, and the huge EPO ridge has shown up more recently in the past couple days.

LOl its Kevin

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

From Ryan Breton

 

Ski Country

Mt. Washington - 147"
Wildcat - 111"
Cannon - 95"
Waterville Valley - 90"
Bretton Woods - 85"
Attitash - 59"
King Pine - 54"

Northern New Hampshire

Pinkham Notch - 75"
Randolph - 75"
Madison - 52"
Jackson - 52"
Colebrook - 48"
North Conway - 47"
North Stratford - 43"
Jefferson - 43"
Berlin - 40"
Lancaster - 36"

Central New Hampshire

East Wakefield - 57"
East Sandwich - 52"
Center Sandwich - 49"
Tamworth - 45"
Hopkinton - 43"
Strafford - 43"
Northfield - 40"
West Unity - 40"
Laconia - 39"
Meredith - 39"
Northwood - 37"
Belmont - 36"
Bristol - 36"
Concord - 32"

Southern New Hampshire

Bow - 41"
Northwood - 37"
Greenville - 36"
Weare - 35"
Keene - 32"
Manchester - 30"
Auburn - 30"
Dunbarton - 29"
Hudson - 28"
East Milford - 27"
Nashua - 26"
Epping - 26"
Dover 26"
Hollis - 24"
Salem - 19"
Stratham - 19"
Greenland - 19"
Durham - 18"
Exeter - 18"
North Hampton - 12"

 According to that table, Keene NH  has the exact total as mi casa for the season. 

 To me that speaks volumes of how much better nickel and dime, SWFE,  latitude dependent winters treat the WNE weenies.  It ain't epic but at least it feels wintery  and sort of has for the past two months.  Not to mention the pre-Halloween event was a treat.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Finally? I feel like they've looked good out in the extended for a while now....the change in pattern for end of January they showed about a week ago looks pretty good to verify, and the huge EPO ridge has shown up more recently in the past couple days.

Just would be nice to sink our teeth into a stormy look. We've got the cold.. we need storm

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Just would be nice to sink our teeth into a stormy look. We've got the cold.. we need storm

Storms can pop up on little notice...it might be dry for the next 6-8 days, but I wouldn't start worrying about storms beyond that. Even the next 6-7 days isn't set in stone...that clipper could still come south.

It's looking more active for early February...but the pattern is one that can produce cutters too....hopefully we avoid them. We seemed to keep getting them back in December at least excuse imaginable when a good redeveloping SWFE would have been nice and easily could have happened.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Storms can pop up on little notice...it might be dry for the next 6-8 days, but I wouldn't start worrying about storms beyond that. Even the next 6-7 days isn't set in stone...that clipper could still come south.

It's looking more active for early February...but the pattern is one that can produce cutters too....hopefully we avoid them. We seemed to keep getting them back in December at least excuse imaginable when a good redeveloping SWFE would have been nice and easily could have happened.

Pattern first week of Feb matches well with Pattern first week of Jan, pulled these off Mammoth forecasters site

post-7-0-19049000-1485355782.gif

post-7-0-59387200-1485355782.gif

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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I thought the winds were the best part of this storm.  Otherwise it was boring

one plus was little rain so my basement stayed dry

it cranked overnight for sure, didn't you end up with decent snowcover, you want meh, cmon down, loved being in a deform rain band last night from a LP at the bM

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54 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I was just looking at the New England snow table and realized, that although winter has seemed pretty meh' out here, that is only due to the lack of  sustained  cold or big events.

 Nobody from Greenfield  north and west should be complaining too much.  Sure, January has been disappointing but December was pretty damn good as MPM, Lurker and I Have had 50% or better snow cover in our yards for almost 6 or 7 weeks.  

 I miss the cold and the confidence it brings for pond ice safety but it doesn't look like this winter is going to feature much in the way of record cold snaps.  I've burned almost 1/3 less wood to date,this winter over last.

Last winter was very warm, December was an absolute blaze last year, and you've burned less wood this winter to date, than last so far???  That seems odd to me....

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Bring on the biggies.  If you want a parade of 1-3/2-4 move to Chicago.

Ithaca, NY....lol. Drove me insane after a while...not because I didn't like the snow in the air all the time, I did, but because it became infuriating watching New England get hammered with a 17" storm while you got scraps.

 

Anyways, hopeful that the clipper may dip south a little. That could be a fun event if it manages to slide underneath us.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

From Ryan Breton

 

Ski Country

Mt. Washington - 147"
Wildcat - 111"
Cannon - 95"
Waterville Valley - 90"
Bretton Woods - 85"
Attitash - 59"
King Pine - 54"

Northern New Hampshire

Pinkham Notch - 75"
Randolph - 75"
Madison - 52"
Jackson - 52"
Colebrook - 48"
North Conway - 47"
North Stratford - 43"
Jefferson - 43"
Berlin - 40"
Lancaster - 36"

Central New Hampshire

East Wakefield - 57"
East Sandwich - 52"
Center Sandwich - 49"
Tamworth - 45"
Hopkinton - 43"
Strafford - 43"
Northfield - 40"
West Unity - 40"
Laconia - 39"
Meredith - 39"
Northwood - 37"
Belmont - 36"
Bristol - 36"
Concord - 32"

Southern New Hampshire

Bow - 41"
Northwood - 37"
Greenville - 36"
Weare - 35"
Keene - 32"
Manchester - 30"
Auburn - 30"
Dunbarton - 29"
Hudson - 28"
East Milford - 27"
Nashua - 26"
Epping - 26"
Dover 26"
Hollis - 24"
Salem - 19"
Stratham - 19"
Greenland - 19"
Durham - 18"
Exeter - 18"
North Hampton - 12"

That's not north and west of him. Anyway, we have had snow since the beginning of December but it has often been thin and there has been virtually no cold, resulting in a lot of open water bars in the woods. I was up in the NEK this past weekend and was shocked at the open streams and wet areas on the trails. Many of these areas were at 2000' or so. That is downright strange. The totals don't tell the entire story, for Vermont at least. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ithaca, NY....lol. Drove me insane after a while...not because I didn't like the snow in the air all the time, I did, but because it became infuriating watching New England get hammered with a 17" storm while you got scraps.

 

Anyways, hopeful that the clipper may dip south a little. That could be a fun event if it manages to slide underneath us.

Anything you see that would make that happen?

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8 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

It's certaintly been a year of nickel and dimes but I'm running pretty much avg here. Nothing over 6" but 30" YTD. Only a couple inches short of last years total 

and i'd call that lucky relative to the limitations i've noted/observed about this winter (so far), to date. 

If most places were currently reporting a dearth I wouldn't have been surprised, either.    

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

From Ryan Breton

 

Ski Country

Mt. Washington - 147"
Wildcat - 111"
Cannon - 95"
Waterville Valley - 90"
Bretton Woods - 85"
Attitash - 59"
King Pine - 54"

 

You can almost double those up for Vermont.  How does Bretton Woods have only 50% of the snowfall we've had so far?  That surprises me with a lot of westerly/northwesterly upslope.  I think we'll see these numbers grow over the next 4-5 days.

Jay Peak...212"

Smuggs...148"

Stowe...164"

Bolton...149"

Sugarbush...183"

Killington...121"

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45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ithaca, NY....lol. Drove me insane after a while...not because I didn't like the snow in the air all the time, I did, but because it became infuriating watching New England get hammered with a 17" storm while you got scraps.

I get the point but I'd bet J.Spin is a bit more wintery than Ithaca, haha.  When the storms come he does well and when they don't come he'll nickel and dime it just fine.  No one would complain with his winter to date I bet, even though he may even be a little below normal.  It is very rare for him to get screwed out of snow in the larger picture.

As Jerry said, total snowfall is the holy grail of winter...not snowcover or temps or whatever. 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You can almost double those up for Vermont.  How does Bretton Woods have only 50% of the snowfall we've had so far?  That surprises me with a lot of westerly/northwesterly upslope.  I think we'll see these numbers grow over the next 4-5 days.

Jay Peak...212"

Smuggs...148"

Stowe...164"

Bolton...149"

Sugarbush...183"

Killington...121"

We haven't had the larger upslope events I've seen in the past this year. It's always been less than ideal flow for us, amounting to not much. Here's my records - the ski resorts probably measures higher up which makes sense (and I measure at the end of the storm, sometimes a day or two later). Mine add up to just over 60" 

 

20-Oct 3
25-Oct 0.25
31-Oct 0.25
11-Nov 0.25
21-Nov 3
22-Nov 3
24-Nov 0.25
27-Nov 1.5
2-Dec 2
3-Dec 0.25
4-Dec 0.5
5-Dec 2
8-Dec 0.25
9-Dec 2.5
11-Dec 2
12-Dec 4
13-Dec 2
14-Dec 3
15-Dec 4
17-Dec 5
18-Dec 0.25
19-Dec 0.5
25-Dec 12
31-Dec 2
2-Jan 2
4-Jan 0.25
6-Jan 0.5
13-Jan 0.5
18-Jan 1
18-Jan 0.5
24-Jan 2
25-Jan 1
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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

yes can't be right this years Dec -Jan 24th HDDS are 1834 in his area, last year 1611

 

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Big difference there...he must be using his heat more lol!! 

 Ha, Ha,  I might just be getting better in my wood stove skills.  ;  )

Actually it is probably due to not having my chimney cleaned until December last year.   Maybe I was being more cautious but I feel like I burned more wood early season last year for what ever reason.

 This year definitely had a better cold shot early on and I probably was lazy and used the furnace a little bit more .

 Let's face it, I love wood to heat but it is a pain in the azz.

 

 

 

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Wintry appeal late this afternoon while walking the dog along the river behind my place.

Its not deep winter, but 4-6" of depth that probably has 2" of liquid in it along with 1/3" of ice on the trees.  Last winter changed my opinion on what winter is.  This is not last winter.  All is good with the world as long as its not last winter.

16252558_10102840346045620_6550023265104

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