FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Can't believe it is so quiet here after that run. I think most are taking a breather. It's going to be a long 5-7 days and possible longer of model tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 NAVGEM has flipped (colder) to the GFS solution (at least up until 18z Friday). Colder and shows light snow (as far as I can tell) over NC into the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 18z GEFS with nice ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Can't believe it is so quiet here after that run. Big game on. I'm trying to hold down my expectations till after 12z tommorrow. Weber had a good tweet, post earlier those 2 shortwaves or the first one gets into alot of raob areas tonight. But yea been great runs, trends since last night 0z runs no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 What happened it was all doom and gloom yesterday at this time it was over the entire winter was over?? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: What happened it was all doom and gloom yesterday at this time it was over the entire winter was over?? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The bath tub sloshed!! JB on Facebook, talking about Guinea pigs! Lol itll be back to gloom and doom by tomorrow! Everybody is probably watching Clemsux play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: What happened it was all doom and gloom yesterday at this time it was over the entire winter was over?? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk They're either 1)... getting drunk at a New Year's eve party. 2) ... scared to jinx the 0z model runs. or 3) ... afraid to show their faces after punting January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The bath tub sloshed!! JB on Facebook, talking about Guinea pigs! Lol itll be back to gloom and doom by tomorrow! Everybody is probably watching Clemsux play! Guinea pigs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Guinea pigs? Yeah, check him out on FB. Some corny joke about it takes a big man to stoop dos and feed a Guinea pig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: They're either 1)... getting drunk at a New Year's eve party. 2) ... scared to jinx the 0z model runs. or 3) ... afraid to show their faces after punting January. No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 hours ago, ajr said: 18z GEFS with nice ensemble support How much of that is after Jan. 11? I leave for San Diego that day and I want to know what I'm missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Whoa! That 18z ensemble is a sweet suite. Only two whiffs in my area and one still scores a tad. Bring on the Guinea pigs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 JB and Ryan tweetQuite the flip-flop by ECMWF 00z with strengthened Arctic blast for Midwest and Eastern US late next week. All that snow in 12z went poof.may be back though on later runs. Until Short wave is in plains, trust no model JMA still has major eastern stormSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 LC still thinks cold east starting roughly the last week in Jan. Expecting a warm-up just prior to that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: LC still thinks cold east starting roughly the last week in Jan. Expecting a warm-up just prior to that period. Yeah, He's been saying that for a good while now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 LC still thinks cold east starting roughly the last week in Jan. Expecting a warm-up just prior to that period.Yeah, Euro Weeklies have been pretty consistent with mid-Jan warmup then a somewhat stellar pattern to start Feb with the possibility of an +PNA/-EPO connection and looks at a -AO.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yeah, He's been saying that for a good while now.... Only about 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 ^^ Yeah fellas...LC put out the only winter outlook that I remember seeing that showed a good back end for the east. Hopefully, those weeklies will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^^ Yeah fellas...LC put out the only winter outlook that I remember seeing that showed a good back end for the east. Hopefully, those weeklies will hold serve. How have the weeklies faired recently. Last i saw they did not have a decent pattern until mid to late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: LC still thinks cold east starting roughly the last week in Jan. Expecting a warm-up just prior to that period. Wait....what?... Am I understanding this correctly? He doesn't think any cold air will get here until the last week in Jan? Surely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Jon said: Yeah, Euro Weeklies have been pretty consistent with mid-Jan warmup then a somewhat stellar pattern to start Feb with the possibility of an +PNA/-EPO connection and looks at a -AO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk A warm-up from what? Regardless of whether we get any snow or not the next two weeks, I'm hoping for a least a few days of notable chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Wait....what?... Am I understanding this correctly? He doesn't think any cold air will get here until the last week in Jan? Surely not. No, I didn't do a good job of relaying the info. He thinks we'll get a warm up after this upcoming cold shot, before the cold returns in late Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, Met1985 said: How have the weeklies faired recently. Last i saw they did not have a decent pattern until mid to late month. That's a good question. Not sure how well they've been verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: That's a good question. Not sure how well they've been verifying. Yeah not picking on your post but just thinking as of last week I believe they where not showing a decent pattern until like week 3 or 4. Here we are tracking an arctic front and maybe, maybe some snow the first week in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah not picking on your post but just thinking as of last week I believe they where not showing a decent pattern until like week 3 or 4. Here we are tracking an arctic front and maybe, maybe some snow the first week in January. Yeah I get ya. It seems like they've been flip-flopping a bit, but that's just anecdotal. I don't have access, so I only go by what I read here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 If anyone was wondering, 0z GFS is a dumpster fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: If anyone was wondering, 0z GFS is a dumpster fire ? Initial wave still puts down 1-2" in nc and upper sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 If anyone was wondering, 0z GFS is a dumpster fireAnd, we must be looking at completely different models, then. I like what I see on the 00z. Cold and snow. Details will be worked out later.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Energy is a mess though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Energy is a mess though It's just the model having a difficult time with the new pattern. Too much going on right now. Worry about the details as we get closer. Right now the most important ingredient seems to be there on every run and that is the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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