Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Is it me or is this thing getting delayed by 6-12 hours every run? Yesterday we were looking at a Fri-Sat event...last night we were looking at a Sat AM event...this morning we're looking at a Sat PM event? When does it stop? Im confused. On the other board someone said snow was in North AL on Thurs night and it's gonna take 2 days to make it to your area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Horrible GFS run. Barely any for Charlotte. Too zonal. We got the high's but no low's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: 12z GFS snow map: Good looking map there! Little lighter accums than 0z!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Im confused. On the other board someone said snow was in North AL on Thurs night and it's gonna take 2 days to make it to your area ? 12z yesterday: Precip arrives 1pm Fri 18z yesterday: Precip arrives 7pm Fri 00z yesterday: Precip arrives 1pm Sat 12z today: Precip arrives 1pm Sat (Carolinas) Just noticing an overall timeframe change, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Horrible GFS run. Barely any for Charlotte. Too zonal. We got the high's but no low's. At this range we'll continue to get different solutions with each run. Important thing is to keep this south of us and get the cold air in first. So personally I think this is still a good run (at this range). **just remember yesterday's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: 12z yesterday: Precip arrives 1pm Fri 18z yesterday: Precip arrives 7pm Fri 00z yesterday: Precip arrives 1pm Sat 12z today: Precip arrives 1pm Sat (Carolinas) Just noticing an overall timeframe change, that's all. May be good, if it's not too delayed, but better chance for cold to be established!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet has a big cold push again, but it dives the sfc high into the Memphis area at 144. Wave at that time is kicking out and is just west of Salt Lake City. Hard to say where it would go from there but not an awesome look overall other than the initial good cold airmass Not surprised, the 0z UK 144 anomaly map had a stout +NAO...the GEFS/EPS keep some sort of block which does help slow down that HP with keeping the PV lobe shoved further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, FallsLake said: At this range we'll continue to get different solutions with each run. Important thing is to keep this south of us and get the cold air in first. So personally I think this is still a good run (at this range). **just remember yesterday's runs Exactly! I think 99% of people would like the look of this mornings GFS runs so far as compared to yesterday's 12 z runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just a FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 What Falls said. Good look at this range for NC. Don't concentrate on precip totals right now. Too far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, SimeonNC said: As far as I'm concerned, this is a perfect run this far out. Upper levels are a mess. SW gets thrown through the shredder and miraculously forms a low in the Atlantic and even that's suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Exactly! I think 99% of people would like the look of this mornings GFS runs so far as compared to yesterday's 12 z runs! I can see the 12z and 0z runs of todays runs pan out. I think ultimately these are the two scenarios for this event. We should get more clarity in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z CMC is a apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Where the 12z diverged from the 0z solution was when the western s/w came on shore. 12z weakened the wave too quickly which allow some of the energy to escape out in front of it while the 0z managed to phase the vort energy around it and hold it together. Some of that might to due to less interaction with the N Pac ULL compared to the 0z. Small differences that make the biggest changes in the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Comparing the 12z UK at 144 v/s the 0z EPS at 156....the UK has stout +NAO and EPO has turned positive. So trough just swings through it looks like. Hopefully GEFS/EPS hold onto the greenland block and -EPO...or does UK score a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, DopplerWx said: No. It won't. We go over this every single year, soil temps can easily be overcome and have little to no effect on accums. We go over it because it is not a simple yes or no as to the question "does soil temps affect snow accrual?" There are way to many factors to consider to just say yes it does or no it doesn't. I personally have seen both situations where a warm ground did and did not seem to affect accrual; but living in the upstate, I can assure you there are more times (especially with small and light events which is what we are most likely to get) than not where warm ground temps limited or prevented any accrual. Your perspective on this is likely to be built upon your experience. AirNelson made a comment about if the temps get cold enough it the ground will cool quickly, which is of course true. And being in Boone, that probably matches his experience much more than mine here in the upstate. Most of our snows are with surface temps of 29-32, which will take a long while for snow to cool the ground enough for good coverage. Boone usually gets snow in the 20s or even teens so the ground would freeze much faster and harder. Surface temps certainly affect ground temps in a big way, as will snowfall rate, duration, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just a FYI. Check out the mslp verification. Euro trumps all, easily.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 29 minutes ago, FallsLake said: At this range we'll continue to get different solutions with each run. Important thing is to keep this south of us and get the cold air in first. So personally I think this is still a good run (at this range). **just remember yesterday's runs Agreed. At this point it will be Monday or Tuesday before we get a clearer picture of how all the moving parts eventually unfold. Until then it's kind of fun having something of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 GFS and CMC ensemble means look quite good. Wavy sfc pressure off the SE coast moving in tandem with sfc high to the north. Haven't seen the member breakdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z GEFS mean snowfall v/s 0z (right). Getting some consistency (knock on wood). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: Agreed. At this point it will be Monday or Tuesday before we get a clearer picture of how all the moving parts eventually unfold. Until then it's kind of fun having something of interest. it has been my experience and observation that even DURING an unfolding winter event the details are still UNKNOWN.....the 1993 storm as example the locals were calling for a dusting to an inch 24 hours out, then during the event with 3 inches already on the ground they changed to maybe up to 3 inches.......we ended up with 18 inches in pelham.......NO model yet is accurate enough to know the details even 48 hours in advance, the general setup yes but the fine details no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z GEFS mean snowfall v/s 0z (right). Getting some consistency (knock on wood). Looks like a classic Banana High to the N and NW and low pressures to the SE. Track almost exact of 0z this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 23 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z GEFS mean snowfall v/s 0z (right). Getting some consistency (knock on wood). Thanks for the side by side, Pack. Definitely some consistency with the last two runs, which is always a good thing. Amazing the difference from just 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 33 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS and CMC ensemble means look quite good. Wavy sfc pressure off the SE coast moving in tandem with sfc high to the north. Haven't seen the member breakdown I feel like if we can get to this look by day 5 we have a chance...assuming wave starts coming out day 6-7. These ensembles should have some skill day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Love where we are sitting right now with the GFS op since we usually get the NW trend, and the ensembles look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This issue that's bothering me about trusting the ensembles is that there are about three different clusters of scenarios on the table with individual members to match each one. There is a low probability of one of the "BIG DOG" members being correct. Many have no snow at all. How can we just average those together and say that has a better chance of being right? Maybe we should be more worried about the standard deviation (how spread out the results are) instead of the mean average???? EDIT: After seeing the individual members that Brick just posted, they do seem a little tighter clustered than previous runs (for NC anyway). Hopefully they are starting to zero in on a correct outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 looking at the euro out to hour 96 and it looks colder than the 12z run from yesterday. **comparing 24 hour increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 For Euro, so far through 120 the greenland block is weaker then 0z run, heights are rising in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 GSP wants euro support and so do I. Problem is that our air mass would be supportive of some amount of wintry precip across the area long/N of I-85. This could be a mess, or could be nothing at all. Readers are strongly cautioned to keep expectations low this far out, until we see some agreement with the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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