griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 192 - weak pac waves shearing out into S Plains. 850 0 deg from Georgetown, SC to Memphis to S Oklahoma. Initial sfc high is off MA coast, but strong now positioned over MN. Very light snow in W TN to northern half of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 198 - very light snow in most of NC except SE corner and parts SC upstate to Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, griteater said: 192 - weak pac waves shearing out into S Plains. 850 0 deg from Georgetown, SC to Memphis to S Oklahoma. Initial sfc high is off MA coast, but strong now positioned over MN. Very light snow in W TN to northern half of SC Good trends tonight. Thanks Grit, nc_hailstorm and jon for pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 204 - very light snow in E NC and NE SC. So it basically sheared out a weak system moving W to E across Dixie. Big trough off west coast now...looks to me like that one will easily cut when it comes out. Hard not to like/love the trend tonight, but just one model cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Good trends tonight. Thanks Grit, nc_hailstorm and jon for pbp. NP. Thanks grit for the Euro PBP! Stormvista is fast. lol Huge trends, EPS should be good considering the differences at 500mb when comparing 12z to 00z tonight...worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Thanks for all the PBP tonight guys. Everyone grab some shuteye and I will see yall for the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Thanks guys. Nice to have more agreement on the cold back in the pic. Any reliable potential storm/precip details (favorable or unfavorable) are too much to expect a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Cold first, storm later always works well for us and we have seen on various ensembles and op runs the past few days that this is the first wide-spread chance for us all. I feel pretty good with the 00z runs, and the EPS will hopefully look better later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jon said: NP. Thanks grit for the Euro PBP! Stormvista is fast. lol Huge trends, EPS should be good considering the differences at 500mb when comparing 12z to 00z tonight...worlds apart. Thanks guys, agree that EPS should be interesting / improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I will throw this doggie bone out...I distinctly remember the Christmas 2010 storm initially being too far north and the UKMet was the first model to take it south, leading the way with the others following...with GFS the last to bring it south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Warning...lots of images, but... Key feature in 00z GFS being a blockbuster is a slower progression of the wave east, doesn't actually start moving out until 140hrs or so...allows it to narrowly miss the ridge that builds over Texas, allowing the s/w to stay suppressed and eventually bomb out. Euro also has the ridge, compare the 00z GFS with the Euro Then look at the 18z GFS and the 12z Euro from yesterday 18z GFS 12z Euro Feature also present in latest CMC, albeit west. and the GEFS ensembles versus the 18z GEFS ensembles Not sure if it actually matters, but it's a trend I'm seeing build on the modeling...it's late, forgive me. This may actually end up being a bad thing in the long run if the energy hangs out west too long. Something to watch on the means. I have no doubt the EPS will produce a decent ridge over Texas around 1/8, good news is no SER with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I like what you guys are selling. Thank you all for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Thankfully the 06z GFS gets rid of the ridiculous ice storm down this way in Columbia/ I-20. Some Wintry weather in Northern Al, Ga, good chunk of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 DGEX just dropped the hammer for the first time all season. It's showing a couple feet of snow for the upstate with temps in the mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaredcohen Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 GEFS ensembles looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 RAH discussion: The forecast for the end of the week has become increasingly uncertain. In previous days, the models depicted a broad, positively- tilted trough aloft from a vortex near Hudson bay WSWwd to the West Coast, and a flat subtropical ridge centered across FL and Cuba. 00Z/31 guidance maintains the vortex near Hudson Bay, but now separates an upper low from the positively-tilted trough, which meanders near the Pac NW coast, while the rest of the trough progresses into the Ern U.S., poleward of a much more suppressed subtropical ridge well into the Caribbean. Related differences at the surface now favor a more prominent/bodilyEwd movement of arctic high pressure from the Plains to the Appalachians --suggestive of cold and dry conditions Thu-Fri-- whereas the previous solutions favored a more elongated arctic surface high that remained centered over the Rockies/Plains, and allowed for moisture return into a milder regime across the Southeastern and Middle Atlantic states. Given this recent significant change in guidance, this forecast package will simply trend toward a drier and cooler end of the week. **looks like RAH is at least going for the colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Ensemble percentages look even better with the 6Z GEFS. There's even a small area of 0-10% of 18" in 24 hours over the CLT metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Queencitywx said: Ensemble percentages look even better with the 6Z GEFS. There's even a small area of 0-10% of 18" in 24 hours over the CLT metro. Sounds great! How about a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This is what happens when I start to doubt things and take a break... 0z GFS jumped right back closer to its runs a couple of days back with a strong PV establishing the cold and building HP over the east. It keeps the first wave intact to give us a nice one. 6z weaker and more sheared out but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Ensemble percentages look even better with the 6Z GEFS. There's even a small area of 0-10% of 18" in 24 hours over the CLT metro.What websites can I see this at Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6Z bufkit is back to showing a nice hit of snow for RDU friday night/saturday morning. At least it is the weekend and won't affect much work/school stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 6 hours ago, griteater said: 192 - weak pac waves shearing out into S Plains. 850 0 deg from Georgetown, SC to Memphis to S Oklahoma. Initial sfc high is off MA coast, but strong now positioned over MN. Very light snow in W TN to northern half of SC I still believe suppression is the least of our worries. In this pattern I will take my chances with the euro and ukmet. This has room to come north in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Sounds great! How about a map? It's a weatherbell product so I shouldn't. There is a large 10% area of 12" across most of NC and NW SC, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It's a weatherbell product so I shouldn't. There is a large 10% area of 12" across most of NC and NW SC, also. They are ok with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Is it me and maybe I'm looking at it wrong but the gfs this morning has seem to back off of the snow it was showing last night Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, Wow said: Was just about to post this...waves along CA were also sampled, possibly helping set up the cold/evolution of pattern upstream ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, odell.moton said: Is it me and maybe I'm looking at it wrong but the gfs this morning has seem to back off of the snow it was showing last night Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You're correct ... moisture is lower on 06z run. Look for flucuations like this until things can get sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 You're correct ... moisture is lower on 06z run. Look for flucuations like this until things can get sorted out.Thanks manSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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