mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Always good when New Orleans can get snow before most of SC/NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Always good when New Orleans can get snow before most of SC/NC! A common occurrence these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Great post by Greg. He loves snow more than anyone, but NEVER gets his hopes up and wishcasts. He knows that the conservative approach is the best one around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 From Alan's tweet! For NC the GFS isnt ice for anyone. 12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC rain for NC.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaredcohen Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: From Alan's tweet! For NC the GFS isnt ice for anyone. 12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC rain for NC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Bummer trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 If you go back and compare the 12z Euro run (snowy) from Wed to the latest today you can see the problem. The 50/50 from Wed is now much further west so heights rise in the east. 0z EPS was in between more or less. Other ways to get this done which was talked about above but getting favorable Atlantic blocking is seeming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 ^ The block on the southern tip of Greenland on Wednesday's run is the biggest difference on those maps, Pack. It is much stronger and farther west. It suppresses heights all along the east coast. Also, the western trough is deeper in today's run. The Aleutian block is slightly stronger too, but that's not what's making the difference. With a -EPO/-PNA pattern, you really, really need a stout west-based -NAO. In this pattern, if you don't have that, you can pretty much forget about it. So, as we get closer to the event, we're seeing weaker blocking which is farther east, a deeper western trough and lower heights across Canada. This is leading to a SER that's a bit stronger and has a more SW/NE orientation. Definitely not the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Quote Great post by Greg. He loves snow more than anyone, but NEVER gets his hopes up and wishcasts. He knows that the conservative approach is the best one around here. He doesn't want to end up in a fountain again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12z EPS not showing love either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I am hoping the 18z isn't as phase happy as the 12z. There has to be a middle ground somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 32 minutes ago, ajr said: 12z EPS not showing love either EPS is horrible...EPS could bounce around this far out, but the trend isn't a good one. With that said, there's still a ton of spread on the EPS individual member low locations for this system. Not consolidated at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miserable Midlands Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Sitting back looking at previous big storms in the Carolina's Jan 2011 was a -PNA but a strong west based -NAO. Feb 2014 was a +NAO but -EPO and +PNA. My opinion is there is no way we can do it without a strong -NAO in a winter that's been dominated so far by a -PNA so far, and I see no indication of the PNA going positive. And we all know we can't buy a long lasting -NAO in the winter anymore. So with that said it's going to take pure luck to get anything to come together in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, Miserable Midlands said: Sitting back looking at previous big storms in the Carolina's Jan 2011 was a -PNA but a strong west based -NAO. Feb 2014 was a +NAO but -EPO and +PNA. My opinion is there is no way we can do it without a strong -NAO in a winter that's been dominated so far by a -PNA so far, and I see no indication of the PNA going positive. And we all know we can't buy a long lasting -NAO in the winter anymore. So with that said it's going to take pure luck to get anything to come together in the next two weeks. From the looks of the indices today the NAO looks to go negative by New Years Day and stay that way for the rest of the run. I admit it is not the best of patterns, but it does have more potential than just "pure luck" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12Z Para-GFS tries to get funky and give us a west based -NAO/-AO/+PNA late in the run. Of course it would probably be dry. Nice to see a west coast ridge on a model though. Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 21 minutes ago, Miserable Midlands said: Sitting back looking at previous big storms in the Carolina's Jan 2011 was a -PNA but a strong west based -NAO. Feb 2014 was a +NAO but -EPO and +PNA. My opinion is there is no way we can do it without a strong -NAO in a winter that's been dominated so far by a -PNA so far, and I see no indication of the PNA going positive. And we all know we can't buy a long lasting -NAO in the winter anymore. So with that said it's going to take pure luck to get anything to come together in the next two weeks. Good post. And welcome. If the base of the SW trough would break off, sort of like the 0Z Euro was showing, that would help pump up heights in the western US. Big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 17 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: 12Z Para-GFS tries to get funky and give us a west based -NAO/-AO/+PNA late in the run. Of course it would probably be dry. Nice to see a west coast ridge on a model though. Keep hope alive! I'll take an Alberta clipper and associated flurries at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 JB on Euro Weeklies Taken literally, the Euro is cold through mid Jan, backs away, then trends colder again Jan 25-Feb 15. I have my reasons to doubt the prowess of its warm up The coldest week is seen here, the week ending 00z the 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 18z GFS isn't going to cut it. Same as 12z if not worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 So I have been researching the PNA since some of the posters here think it is the number 1 index for SE winter divination. According to the ncsu site +Pna's are correlated with el Nino's and vice versa. So what was the PNA doing last winter during our Godzilla el Nino and how did that fit into our ridiculous xmas temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So I have been researching the PNA since some of the posters here think it is the number 1 index for SE winter divination. According to the ncsu site +Pna's are correlated with el Nino's and vice versa. So what was the PNA doing last winter during our Godzilla el Nino and how did that fit into our ridiculous xmas temps? The insanely warm December last year was likely a result of a combination of a very bad MJO phase and a couple of other factors which teleconnected to a SE ridge. That was truly a perfect storm of a disaster pattern. The analogs largely favored a somewhat mild but wet December for the east and southeast given the El Niño. But the El Niño was somewhat trumped by a few other factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Miserable Midlands said: Sitting back looking at previous big storms in the Carolina's Jan 2011 was a -PNA but a strong west based -NAO. Feb 2014 was a +NAO but -EPO and +PNA. My opinion is there is no way we can do it without a strong -NAO in a winter that's been dominated so far by a -PNA so far, and I see no indication of the PNA going positive. And we all know we can't buy a long lasting -NAO in the winter anymore. So with that said it's going to take pure luck to get anything to come together in the next two weeks. When you say it's harder to get a long lasting -NAO is this the general trend that you're referring to? http://www.pnas.org/content/98/23/12876.full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Well, if next weekend doesn't work out, it could just be setting us up for some thing better down the road. I always look at the last 10 days of January for something special to happen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Well, if next weekend doesn't work out, it could just be setting us up for some thing better down the road. I always look at the last 10 days of January for something special to happen around here. I look for high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Looking at the EPS some more....the pacific is a big problem with the 12 run. With EPO in the tank we have such little HP filtering in the plains with the 12z run. Such a big change from the 0z and yesterday's 12z run. I was wondering why it was so much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 So which you going to believe, yesterday's or today's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: So which you going to believe, yesterday's or today's? We'll let you know tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, CaryWx said: We'll let you know tomorrow Precisely my point!!! It'll be different tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Cold rain sucks! Cold dry , is gangsta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: So which you going to believe, yesterday's or today's? Well the problem starts day 5 with big low crashing into the west coast...it's quicker on today's run. So if it's going to change it needs to do it tonight as EPS is really good inside day 5. We need to get back to conus wide HP, with such strong -EPO nosing into western Canada you would think that was given but we can screw some winters storms up down here. Amazing that little timing difference has such huge implications down stream. It's a wonder it ever snows here. All this energy coming ashore is great but would be nice if a ridge could pop just off the coast to allow the HP to pour in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Agree, Def If it don't change by 12z tomorrow we're probably toast again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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