Jon Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 This was too good not to post...haha. CFS says there's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, MichaelJ said: Well at least we didn't start a storm thread! Trends look really bad now and you know the saying "the trend is NOT your friend" I don't see any trend at all. Just look at the GFS today at 0z, 6z, and 12z. Middle of the road, suppressed and weak, then wrapped up and more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: While the pattern is not really all that great for a big winter storm, it's still close enough for small variations to make a big difference. Something like a shortwave not being sampled well or a model amping up one piece of energy vs. another can make huge differences at these leads. My gut feeling is that we'll get some sort of Miller Bish look. I doubt we see a big wound up storm heading toward the Lakes. On the other hand, this nice suppressed overruning look that we search for every year that never pans out may be difficult to come by also. Still plenty of options legitimately on the table at this point. But my instinct tells me that more liquid is likely to fall than frozen for all but the upper portions of the SE. Really, you don't want to be in the bullseye 7-8 days out! That gives me hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, msuwx said: I don't see any trend at all. Just look at the GFS today at 0z, 6z, and 12z. Middle of the road, suppressed and weak, then wrapped up and more intense. Yep. It's more or less folks living and dying by each operational. Full freak out mode today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, msuwx said: I don't see any trend at all. Just look at the GFS today at 0z, 6z, and 12z. Middle of the road, suppressed and weak, then wrapped up and more intense. I think this will end up being a overrunning event. I have a good feeling about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, Jon said: This was too good not to post...haha. CFS says there's hope Looks like a Jan '88 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12z Euro so far is stronger with our SE Canada PV which is good. It was way weak on it at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Looks like a Jan '88 redux We'll get you that foot of snow yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Out to 135 on Euro, hard to say if end result will be much diff, but it looks it little better at 500mb....wave out west isn't blasting out quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: We'll get you that foot of snow yet You're in my boat now, neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Big 'ol 1040 high covering the country by 144. Faster that arctic air can push east the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Cold just doesn't press south like the UKMet. Looks like it's going to be a prolonged overrunning event, but with the goods to our NW, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, Jon said: This was too good not to post...haha. CFS says there's hope Gotta love seeing either a foot+ of snow or absolutely nothing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, ajr said: Gotta love seeing either a foot+ of snow or absolutely nothing.. Now don't be sad. Cuz 3 out of 4 ain't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Heights crashing ahead of the SW compared to previous runs. good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 At 162, it's snow from OK/KS to most of VA except SE corner, up to SW PA...GFS/Euro/CMC coverged today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: At 162, it's snow from OK/KS to most of VA except SE corner, up to SW PA...GFS/Euro/CMC coverged today Lower levels are not responding accordingly. Euro shifted to the old GFS run. Flip flop. Classic overrunning event incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Lower levels are not responding accordingly. Euro shifted to the old GFS run. Flip flop. Classic overrunning event incoming. Good! We need a long duration rain, to help our drought ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Wave is slowly making its way into the southern plains at 186 for another burst of precip...snow now in central TX to PA on round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Good! We need a long duration rain, to help our drought ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Second wave is an apps runner at 192... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Euro lets the southern wave shear out in the SW. See this a lot on the models in this range. Just needs to hold its own as the northern energy passes by instead of letting it suck it up and stringing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Models are somewhere between wintery mess to highs in the 60-70's next Friday-Sat. Euro is the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Changeover this run makes it to New Orleans and Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Looks much better then GFS. Obviously we want the UK look over the Euro at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Looks like significant snow across a lot of WNC by 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Looks like significant snow across a lot of WNC by 192 If it can snow with 850 temps at +12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Wow said: Euro lets the southern wave shear out in the SW. See this a lot on the models in this range. Just needs to hold its own as the northern energy passes by instead of letting it suck it up and stringing it out. Problem is that the heights over the SE never fall...the cold air gets held up and can't plunge more effectively into the SE. Only the UKMet shows the needed cold press and hard to say if that would even work based on how the SW wave would kick out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Wow said: If it can snow with 850 temps at +12 Whoops, 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Greg Fishel 5 mins · "INTRIGUING" IS ALL I CAN SAY ABOUT LATE NEXT WEEK Here are a couple of reasons to not get too excited about snow/ice talk for late next week. First, it's a week out, and you know how that goes. To this day, I still wish we did a 5-day forecast and not a 7-day, but one has to pick their battles :-). Second, there is a reason the mean annual snowfall at RDU is 6.1". It takes a special set of meteorological variables to come together in just the right fashion to pull it off. Any one parameter missing? You're goose is cooked. Even the "normal" snowfall numbers are misleading. Take January, climatologically our snowiest month with an average of 2.9". For you statistic buffs, the 50th percentile is .7". That means half the time we see .7" or less in January, and .7" or more the other half. A few active Januarys drive the mean upward, but long time residents of North Carolina know the real truth. So what about this thing late next week? It is true that a large mass of arctic air will take over much of the U.S. and that a very strong frontal zone will set up over the southeast part of the country. The more thermal contrast you have, the more potential there is for at the very least waves of low pressure to form, and at the most, major cyclones to develop.You don't need a major storm with abnormally low pressures to get abundant amounts of precipitation. All you need is a moisture source, a mechanism to make the air rise, and of course cold air if your desire is snow or ice. The one thing that bothers me about this potential event next week is the positioning of the Arctic High pressure area supplying the cold air. It's forecast to be in the Plains and not over the northeast U.S. Surface features are a reflection of what's going on in the upper atmosphere, and our most prolific winter storms here do not occur with a High over the Plains. In this scenario, the cold air has to make it over the mountains, and usually does so in a modified state. A High over the Northeast provides a direct discharge of cold arctic air into the piedmont with no orographic barriers in the way. Does this mean we have no chance for wintry weather next week? Absolutely not! It's the 'ole "wait and see" game playing out once again. Just don't want you snow lovers to get your hopes up for nothing. Better to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised than to turn low probability into high expectation, only to be disappointed once again. And for you snow haters out there, all I can say is, the odds are always in your favor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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