DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 much better run, colder in nc, snow rdu north at 177hr it looks like on the instant maps. great look at 180 too, rn/snow line sagging south. precip incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 SER starting to flex its muscles at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Better blocking on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Atlantic ridgng looks better this run.... Edit, ninjas by pack...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Cold press isn't as good as 18z...don't think we're gonna like the end result here... 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: more moisture at 165 than 18z for sure out towards tx and la 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: much better run, colder in nc, snow rdu north at 177hr it looks like on the instant maps. 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: SER starting to flex its muscles at 168 Anyone else see a pattern here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Precip arrives much earlier this run, like the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Anyone else see a pattern here? Yes. We're doing model analysis and you're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 195 looks like precip still going in nc, snow line right at or north of rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Important thing here is we still have a strong storm signal on the GFS to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, TiltedStorm said: Important thing here is we still have a strong storm signal on the GFS to track yes, will continue to change big time over the weekend into next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Still have a storm. That's good (obviously) but this one isn't as generous to the SC/RDU peeps. I want everyone to get in on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Jonathan said: Still have a storm. That's good (obviously) but this one isn't as generous to the SC/RDU peeps. I want everyone to get in on this! Yeah, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just compared the two previous runs of the GFS precip the (current run) arrives faster in the CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 @ 198, there's a 1031 High over PA, rain/snow line still around I-40. @ 210, precip is gone (except some IP in eastern NC), but high temps just above freezing for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Still have a storm. That's good (obviously) but this one isn't as generous to the SC/RDU peeps. I want everyone to get in on this! Sounded better for RDU to me according to what Doppler posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Double high at 162 becomes one at 168 (1033). It is sliding East and is a pretty good latitude, however, it does not seem to be strong enough to push the cold further South. Snow line form N Mississippi to Asheville, but never drops below that. High camping out around Ohio at 186/192, but weakening to 1031, then sliding to Penn at 198. This is a no go for most below I-40. Need that High stronger and SER just too strong. This has been the pattern all Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Sounded better for RDU to me according to what Doppler posted. it is, not a huge amount of qpf but temps are better. not much qpf at all up into va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Isn't there a mid Atlantic thread for VA people?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Not really a big event at all. General 1-3" in areas that stay all snow (verbatim) the purples in NC are mainly ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Will take that any time... wanting my SC friends to cash in. I have a feeling there will be some good ensemble members due to the marginal temps on the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Precip over at 210, 540m line lifting North, never got below Boone. This won't do it for most. As usual, cold looks to be the main issue on this particular run, cold just doesn't want to come past the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Say what you will. I'll let the numbers do the talking. Regardless of what P-TYPE it is, this is a MUCH smaller, lighter event than what the 18z showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Shears out all pieces of energy and keeps it a strung out line of light precip. Not bad to see at all right now. Once it consolidates on one wave, we'll see a good storm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Yes. We're doing model analysis and you're not. Thankyou for being real with it being a light event other people are taking it out of proportion and don't understand snow/ice totals. This looks like a light event and we don't need it to trend warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 ^Looks better for those in LA and MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Say what you will. I'll let the numbers do the talking. Regardless of what P-TYPE it is, this is a MUCH smaller, lighter event than what the 18z showed. Depends on where you live!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Shears out all pieces of energy and keeps it a strung out line of light precip. Not bad to see at all right now. Once it consolidates on one wave, we'll see a good storm out of this. Are you confident that will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Isn't there a mid Atlantic thread for VA people?? I'm so over this and not even sure why I'm bothering with this again. 4 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: Thankyou for being real with it being a light event other people are taking it out of proportion and don't understand snow/ice totals. This looks like a light event and we don't need it to trend warmer. You're welcome. The only analysis welcome here is analysis that sensationalizes snow. I don't know as much as others, but I know how to compare two model runs to each other and see what's what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Theme from this run is more suppresion. The gefs and EPS members where signalling that some today. Worth noting. If your in va or MA they need a nudge from ser and stronger wave. Get it strung out, weak and or no mechanism to turn the flow then it's dry cold for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Thoughts: 00z GFS: Looked decent overall with the cold press, but wave came out quicker than ideal...hard to complain about that run at this stage though 18z GFS Para: Cold press is even better than the 00z GFS, but it has a more consolidated wave that is slower to come out of the SW and it's wintry mix to ice to rain. Cutter into the Ohio Valley with solid high over the MA and NE, but retreating off the coast 00z CMC: Canadian hasn't had a single good model run which is.....weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.