Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Crazy! Gone from worse and worse all day to this. Just shows you anything is possible. So far away, no need to give up, and that run just showed why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Smacks the SER in the face and says let's dance. Euro should be fun and the GEFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Well here is the clown map. I think most here would be happy with this, even half this. Tonight's run was a perfect track and HP placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The GFS doesn't get my backyard above freezing until the Friday following that storm. Total QPF this run: 1.36" all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Pretty harsh ICE event for Midlands of SC and ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Big changes on GEFS through day 5. Higher heights in west and deeper trough in east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This would cripple metropolitan areas for days to weeks in ice areas. Interested in the Ens members. I recall the CFS saying this would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Big changes on GEFS through day 5. Higher heights in west and deeper trough in east. Great news, skill scores at day 5 are around 85+%. Euro around 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: So this confirms that the 12z were either out to lunch, or something has recently developing between then and now that made the models change. I still say we all should wait for the Euro and the EPS. I'm hopeful about this, but I wouldn't get that excited/presumptuous just yet. There's still time for the models to swing back tomorrow. Really, until our first wave makes it ashore, there's still the potential for the models to shift some stuff around. Undoubtedly, though, this is a great trend to see across multiple models and their ensembles tonight. Edit: Wait, I just saw the second part of your post . Yeah, definitely wait for the Euro, but even then I would still want to see several more model runs of similar solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I don't know....such a dramatic shift. GEFS mean snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Mind-boggling how off everything except ukmet was today. Some new raob data must have not been avalaible or contaiminated. Never seen the whole model suites go all one way and 12 hrs latter go 180 degrees back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This isn't too far off what the 0z Euro showed. It narrowly missed being a blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 0z GEFS height change from 48 hours ago run. Until this gets muted hard to trust anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Alright, so what happens if the EURO makes it a clean 0z sweep (GFS/CMC/EURO) do we make anything of it or...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 sigma values are still very high after hour 150 on the ens members. Think tomorrow models will start to converge on a vague solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Alright, so what happens if the EURO makes it a clean 0z sweep (GFS/CMC/EURO) do we make anything of it or...? I would say if we have a similar solution by 12z Sunday then we can begin to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: I don't know....such a dramatic shift. GEFS mean snowfall. How does that change including the period from 192-216 where it's still snowing in the Carolinas on the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Alright, so what happens if the EURO makes it a clean sweep (GFS/CMC/EURO) do we make anything of it or...? It's 8 days away. So nothing. All this would mean is that we have a very interesting run. But it's just one set of runs of many to come for this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Alright, so what happens if the EURO makes it a clean sweep (GFS/CMC/EURO) do we make anything of it or...? To me Sunday night was always the benchmArk because all the players would be in position, raob scope and under 120. Then today 12z was a doorslam. So if things stay on pace next 3 to 4 runs the it's time to get excited imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Alright, so what happens if the EURO makes it a clean 0z sweep (GFS/CMC/EURO) do we make anything of it or...?Of course.Euro ensembles have only recently had bad runs, GFS has been all over the place. If we get the Op and more importantly the EPS back on board, it's something to take seriously. Of course not the 00z verbatim, but a more southern solution. Euro was consistent extremely far out on this one, so I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to reel it in once more. As Pack has pointed out the 500mb look is all over the place nevermind the individual players and amplitude of the waves. Long way to go, but all options are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: It's 8 days away. So nothing. All this would mean is that we have a very interesting run. But it's just one set of runs of many to come for this potential event. This is true, BUT...if it happened (hypothetically) how many times have we ever seen the big 3 show a very similar solution 8 days out? That just seems crazy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 33 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: UKMET still bringing it ,colder at 120-144 again. Carry on. You'll never have to convince me of ukmet value. Been a firm beleiver in it for years. Its a master at phased storms by the way. Second to none, not even the doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 And how many times have we seen models show a good storm way far out, lose them, and then show them again? Still a lot of time to go, but shows how much potential there is with this with things all over the place the last two days. I think we have done good here in the past with storms when the models have done this dance in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: How does that change including the period from 192-216 where it's still snowing in the Carolinas on the OP. Went up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: You'll never have to convince me of ukmet value. Been a firm beleiver in it for years. Its a master at phased storms by the way. Second to none, not even the doc The UK is crazy cold day 5-6. Hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Can someone post the GEFS panels when they come out? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The east coast heights fell early in the run tonight. Noticed right off bat first 72 hrs. Not sure why and it has to be a net effect from something upstream , pacific my 1st guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, CaryWx said: Can someone post the GEFS panels when they come out? Thanks Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: The UK is crazy cold day 5-6. Hard to believe. I remember a couple of years ago when the -EPO really drove the bus, cold was relentless and aimed more at the south and east, even when modeling pointed it somewhere else post day 6/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: You'll never have to convince me of ukmet value. Been a firm beleiver in it for years. Its a master at phased storms by the way. Second to none, not even the doc It's also been the most consistent with its solutions the last couple of days with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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