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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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Could be a real close call for a little freezing rain Tuesday night? Nothing big if anything freezing. 

 

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 

But until then CCCold is the word...........

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 4 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 13. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
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37 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I hope this is wrong...if the trop PV heads over to AK/Siberia into the last week of Jan it will take a long time to get out of that pattern.   EPS was wrong about the 10" yesterday so it's probably wrong about this.  Would be fun though....#winterover?

 

IMG_3913.PNG

IMG_3914.PNG

Agree Pack- I think winter is over. A great big endless torch. I am already looking at next winter 

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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

The original packbacker statement was not so categorical, just a statement of concern at the position of the PV as modeled by the euro ensemble ( I presume the mean)

Yep...that was meant as I don't know but personally I don't think so....#dieNina

Agree on above statement about checking back in mid Jan or so.  Enjoy the warmth until then.  

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I think the models are bringing the cold back too quickly I don't believe there will be any wintry threats even through the first week of February. Second week on possibly but only saying that because of the long range uncertainty. Believe there will still be another event but likely for climo areas. This could come as late as the 3rd week of February.

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24 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Joe Bastardi Retweeted Joe Bastardi

note monster ridge comes first before trough develops late Jan Feb into March in east

Thanks. That's great too know that the ridge will not be our final nail in the coffin for the winter. I was hoping we could keep the majority of our North to South snow cover, but we may just have to restart winter again at the end of the month.

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24 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Not sure I've ever see an overall warm look like this at the hart of winter. Day 10 euro 850 temps:

 

euro850day10_2.jpg

Yea I'm already sending the punter out on the field for Friday January 13- Thursday January 19. That's as far as I'm willing to go. By then I'll evaluate if I need to call him back out and punt another week.

Think by mid to late week well be able to see the next pattern change on LR ens/ models, trough in the east. Not sure we'll get another cold press like we are currently having this winter, so our next opportunity if we get one will have to go back to the traditional late winter NE HP in position, cad type deal for our cold. Probably would get burnt, but I wouldn't mind taking a shot with a big coastal.

 

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

By Thursday pti, Greensboro will be below normal temp wise for met winter and above normal snowfall already achieving a seasons worth of snow. Been a long time since we just about crossed the halfway mark of met winter and could make those claims. 

But hasn't GSO done quite well the last several years relative to average snowfall, last year being an exception?

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49 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Not sure I've ever see an overall warm look like this at the hart of winter. Day 10 euro 850 temps:

 

euro850day10_2.jpg

I know...when i looked at the euro this morning..i was pretty shocked.....for all of north america, it looked like a map you would see in april or even early may at 850mb. This is an all new level of suckage for mid january. 

ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

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22 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

But hasn't GSO done quite well the last several years relative to average snowfall, last year being an exception?

Yes. Never get shutout and we've had some nice backend to winters the past couple years. Last year just timed one up right to avoid shutout in a miserable winter pattern. 

Also I'm 50/50 on second half of winter. Thought it would be front-loaded and it has been for the most part. Well see, it's never good to be entering the dead f winter seeing a 850 map like the one above from the euro. Jan 5 through Valentines day is really our peak season to score in SE. Sure we hits some Dec events and quite a few late Feb and early March deals, but for the most part odds start going down after v day.

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33 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I know...when i looked at the euro this morning..i was pretty shocked.....for all of north america, it looked like a map you would see in april or even early may at 850mb. This is an all new level of suckage for mid january. 

ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

That ought to allow for some slight erosion of the snow pack to our north.  Sigh.

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42 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yes. Never get shutout and we've had some nice backend to winters the past couple years. Last year just timed one up right to avoid shutout in a miserable winter pattern. 

Also I'm 50/50 on second half of winter. Thought it would be front-loaded and it has been for the most part. Well see, it's never good to be entering the dead f winter seeing a 850 map like the one above from the euro. Jan 5 through Valentines day is really our peak season to score in SE. Sure we hits some Dec events and quite a few late Feb and early March deals, but for the most part odds start going down after v day.

Cant say for sure whether or not we return to the horrible pattern in late Dec. Quite dismal looking as of right now. This time around, the warmth gets more folks than just the southeast crowd.

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