JNichols Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Whats the liklihood of Western Kentucky getting a white Christmas? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 29 minutes ago, JNichols said: Whats the liklihood of Western Kentucky getting a white Christmas? lol Looks pretty cold, so 100% if you buy a snow machine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 The EPS says hold on a minute. Supports a SER and the trough buried in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 And those Dew points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JNichols Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Looks pretty cold, so 100% if you buy a snow machine No plans on buying a snow machine but hoping for the real thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: You sound like a teacher with all your stats and logicology Burnsie. Wait, nevermind...... This is more in the common sense realm. If we have year after year of above normal temperatures common sense should tell you that when they recalculate the averages using those years and dropping off colder years on the other end the average will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 EPS is slower with getting the se ridge out of the way than the GEFS/GEPS but at least all models look the same toward d14-15. Narrowing down the conflict to timing feels a lot better than seeing ens guidance at complete odds with each other. lol. EPS looks like the GEFS heading into the holiday with a strong CAD signal. Mean temps are AN but that's most likely a byproduct of spread. If a strong HP parks to our N like this, it won't be warm for the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Wonder what the white Christmas chances are for me right now based of the current runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Wonder what the white Christmas chances are for me right now based of the current runs Dart......dartboard.....throw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Wonder what the white Christmas chances are for me right now based of the current runs If I had to guess, I would say somewhere between 0 and 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Dart......dartboard.....throw Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: If I had to guess, I would say somewhere between 0 and 100% that’s better than the 00z burn run last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Wonder what the white Christmas chances are for me right now based of the current runs In orangeburg? About zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Wow lol With the way the last 3 winters have gone, if this verifies and we do get a LP to develop in the Gulf, it will probably cut right up through the Appalachians and scour out all of the cold air out in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: With the way the last 3 winters have gone, if this verifies and we do get a LP to develop in the Gulf, it will probably cut right up through the Appalachians and scour out all of the cold air out in front of it. It couldn't go north; that's an extension of high pressure from the west to the east. Really with that look I would think a miller A southern slider would be more of an option to a miller B CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It couldn't go north; that's an extension of high pressure from the west to the east. Really with that look I would think a miller A southern slider would be more of an option to a miller B CAD setup. Jan 88 redux!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 That was an impressive look for Xmas day event for someone on the Op Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Wow lol "Clark, this is just a real nice surprise." Hopefully the King is still King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, jburns said: This is more in the common sense realm. If we have year after year of above normal temperatures common sense should tell you that when they recalculate the averages using those years and dropping off colder years on the other end the average will go up. Just asking but why would you drop years?Are you wanting to get a satellite era report. 30's was some of the hottest decades but they keep adjusting the temps down to make it look cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: The EPS says hold on a minute. Supports a SER and the trough buried in the SW. It does. It is improved over the 0z run so hopefully we are losing more of the torch members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It does. It is improved over the 0z run so hopefully we are losing more of the torch members To borrow a quote from the legend himself. EPS was "Delayed but not Denied". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 32 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It couldn't go north; that's an extension of high pressure from the west to the east. Really with that look I would think a miller A southern slider would be more of an option to a miller B CAD setup. Haha if I had an inch of snow for every time I've heard that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Both global models has a storm signal in the sourthast. Confidence is growing on this. Got to love the Euro and what is is sniffing out for Christmas across the Georgia, Carolinas and Virginia. If the HP verifies we could see a Christmas miracle for most on the board. I may set my alarm tonight for the next Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 The canadian was also going somewhere fun at the end of its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, CADEffect said: Both global models has a storm signal in the sourthast. Confidence is growing on this. Got to love the Euro and what is is sniffing out for Christmas across the Georgia, Carolinas and Virginia. If the HP verifies we could see a Christmas miracle for most on the board. I may set my alarm tonight for the next Euro run. we talking about a Feb. 2010 like-event that all the way to the coast will get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 49 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: With the way the last 3 winters have gone, if this verifies and we do get a LP to develop in the Gulf, it will probably cut right up through the Appalachians and scour out all of the cold air out in front of it. If there's a decent SE ridge at all as been modeled, I think that's exactly what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: we talking about a Feb. 2010 like-event that all the way to the coast will get snow? Not to be a buzzkill but I would certainly be surprised at a storm like that in this pattern. I lived in Cola for a while and its hard enough there to get events. I would put the chance of any snow in orangeburg before christmas at less than 5% and probably just higher than 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 36 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It does. It is improved over the 0z run so hopefully we are losing more of the torch members Yeah Im just trolling the weenies.... Bob explained it really well. I think we have a relaxation period then a reload... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 18z GFS = Dukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: 18z GFS = Dukie! That cutoff bowling ball over the southwest has gotta go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: 18z GFS = Dukie! Hold the phone, 1041 mb near Ohio valley, another wave in TX, might get the ice storm a little after Christmas, wedge should set up in next few frames!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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