January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Browser was open on my phone but I was watching the orange bowl. Lol

I have nothing to add. Gfs jumped big with losing wave 1 and much more confluence. Long lead so who knows. Jumpy models cannot be trusted especially beyond their useful range. 

 

Hopefully the gefs shows some consistency.   

that was a terrific orange bowl. All in all a great night for the southeast folks all around 

[Amped]

MEH don't like this look on the GFS and CMC.  Once those shortwaves are cutoff over Oregon they rarely come east and produce anything. March 93 was a rare exception.

 

 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm with you buddy

 

[Amped]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Just popped a 5hr energy in my bourbon.  It's ugly night and I'm in.

Only storm I ever lost sleep on this far out was Sandy. Even last years storm when the H5 pattern had KU written all over it 8 days out. Not worth sweating over at this point.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs backed way off on both waves for our area. Not a good run. 

[ErinInTheSky]

I'm not staying up for Euro. It'll be there in the morning alongside a new GFS.

 

Mulligan.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs backed way off on both waves for our area. Not a good run. 

Eh not great, but not awful. Still some decent hits. Definitely a few more members that dont have much of anything compared to 18z. There are about 5 members with solid events that are misses to the south. I am in the camp that does not believe suppression will be the problem when the virtual becomes reality.

[CAPE]

Some good signs on the 0z GEFS down the line. Looks like a ridge building out west towards the end. Maybe we will finally see the PNA flip. Still a solid -NAO, and weaker ridging along the east coast than previous runs.

[AmericanWxFreak]

lol I'm out. Don't look at the euro 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

lol I'm out. Don't look at the euro 

10 models a-leaping...What's it saying this time?

[RedSky]

5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

lol I'm out. Don't look at the euro 

Lucy good grief lol

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Lucy good grief lol

 

 

 

"The models always lose the storm in this range only to bring it back later" - anonymous weenie

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Not a good overnight suite to wake up to. Wow. 12z will be telling.


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[WxUSAF]

6z GEFS has a fair bit of similarity with the 0z Euro and EPS, but still has many members with a storm offshore, enough to have some indication on the mean.  Pretty amazing how the Euro and several GEFS members just completely lose the shortwave out west.  Dump it into the Pacific and it's gone forever.

[Bob Chill]

That was one of the more impressive vanishing acts. Eps agrees. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

That was one of the more impressive vanishing acts. Eps agrees. 

Blame Canada.  

 

 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

6z GEFS has a fair bit of similarity with the 0z Euro and EPS, but still has many members with a storm offshore, enough to have some indication on the mean.  Pretty amazing how the Euro and several GEFS members just completely lose the shortwave out west.  Dump it into the Pacific and it's gone forever.

Sampling, man. Sampling.

[psuhoffman]

Overnight runs did something that hurt our chances for the day 7 threat, and it was across the board on all the guidance.   Around day 5-7 the heights out west, especially in the southwest, are higher. More ridging west and so the trough dumps into the east fully. No southeast ridge at all. Hello suppression city. That squashes and washes out the system ejecting from the Rockies that was our storm. But hey some people that were crying about the pna and wanting the trough in the east got what they wanted, congrats enjoy your cold dry week. 

That said the gefs actually keeps things close enough to at least watch for a shift back. We're still way out. EPS mostly supports the op in squashing everything totally.  Both the gefs and EPS still leave the door open to possible events after as the cold relaxes. Often that's how we roll here but we also just saw a pretty major shift so anything after is a bit suspect until we see how this settles in. 

Way out still looks ambiguous but there are signs the pna might want to cooperate more and still signs on the gefs of nao help. EPS is mostly a muddy useless mess in the long range. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Blame Canada.  

 

 

I'm confused. Is this guy saying it's just a skewed run or is that why it wasn't there?

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z GEFS has a fair bit of similarity with the 0z Euro and EPS, but still has many members with a storm offshore, enough to have some indication on the mean.  Pretty amazing how the Euro and several GEFS members just completely lose the shortwave out west.  Dump it into the Pacific and it's gone forever.

The biggest problem I saw was the higher heights in the southwest allowing the trough to dig more in the east and squash the se ridge. The vort we were tracking is weaker then coming through the ridging in the west then what's left gets washed out when it ejects out of the Rockies into the suppressive flow in the east. 

[mappy]

lol 10-day threats get you all every time


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[poolz1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The biggest problem I saw was the higher heights in the southwest allowing the trough to dig more in the east and squash the se ridge. The vort we were tracking is weaker then coming through the ridging in the west then what's left gets washed out when it ejects out of the Rockies into the suppressive flow in the east. 

I agree...Trough much deeper in the east in means.  So much for seasonal trends...for now at least.  You called it though with respect to the LR and the SER.  Its not nonexistent but its not completely killing us either.  To me, the pattern looks soooooo close to being beautiful.  

[ldub23]

Joe Bastardi says the cold will get here later and Feb will get snowier and colder.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, ldub23 said:

Joe Bastardi says the cold will get here later and Feb will get snowier and colder.

Ok enjoy the warm weather next week then. 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Overnight runs did something that hurt our chances for the day 7 threat, and it was across the board on all the guidance.   Around day 5-7 the heights out west, especially in the southwest, are higher. More ridging west and so the trough dumps into the east fully. No southeast ridge at all. Hello suppression city. That squashes and washes out the system ejecting from the Rockies that was our storm. But hey some people that were crying about the pna and wanting the trough in the east got what they wanted, congrats enjoy your cold dry week. 

This is  a bit silly and overstated. We have had nothing but warm cutters followed by cold and dry with the mean trough out west. I will take a western ridge eastern trough pattern every single time and roll with it.

[aldie 22]

I'm going to give it until Saturday to come back on the models before I give up

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is  a bit silly and overstated. We have had nothing but warm cutters followed by cold and dry with the mean trough out west. I will take a western ridge eastern trough pattern every single time and roll with it.

But your using broad generalities when each setup is unique and involves lots of moving parts. What is the right piece for one car isn't for another.  Take away the ranking AO and NAO combined with the EPO that set up this cold push and yes then we probably would need PNA help. But if you have a displaced PV lobe squashed down into Quebec and a broad longwave pattern ridging out west is just going to be a suppressive pattern. I was arguing with people the last few days that were lamenting that the trough axis keeps dumping into the west. Given all the other factors in this particular setup that wasn't a bad thing. The biggest change last night was to dump the trough fully into the east and you saw the result. Look at the h5 on the last two euro runs below. Are you saying you would take the second (cold dry) over the first (produced a big storm)?

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

So is it unusual for the models to all show something and then not showing it ~12-18 hours later?

Not ops at range but having solid ensemble support for multiple runs in a row and then in one suite the ops and ens nearly drop the entire idea isn't that common. 

It could easily pop back up though in the next few days. But an impressive Houdini act nonetheless

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But your using broad generalities when each setup is unique and involves lots of moving parts. What is the right piece for one car isn't for another.  Take away the ranking AO and NAO combined with the EPO that set up this cold push and yes then we probably would need PNA help. But if you have a displaced PV lobe squashed down into Quebec and a broad longwave pattern ridging out west is just going to be a suppressive pattern. I was arguing with people the last few days that were lamenting that the trough axis keeps dumping into the west. Given all the other factors in this particular setup that wasn't a bad thing. The biggest change last night was to dump the trough fully into the east and you saw the result. Look at the h5 on the last two euro runs below. Are you saying you would take the second (cold dry) over the first (produced a big storm)?

 

 

I dont disagree that the "suddenly" modeled dumping of the cold over the east messes up this specific set up. It may not be real. Models have a tendency to overdo cold air intrusions that crush waves and shove the baroclinc zone too far south. I was only responding to the bolded part of your original post, which was a broad generalization, and a bit whingy

You do great work here, and its much appreciated, as I have stated before.

[eurojosh]

There's a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth, but as of now isn't it GFS and Euro vs GFS para and CMC? Could change when 6z para comes out, but the 0z runs of those two models still look decent, no?