Dec 12 Snow/ice threat

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Yeah RGEM looking like that is encouraging.   Now that we're within 24 hours I trust it more vs GFS?

I would. Differences really aren't THAT big. GFS is maybe a little weaker with the thump early tomorrow. That makes some difference. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm not seeing it at these graphics--but I"m not sure when things change either.

Well you just posted a snap shot at 12z. Not sure how that tells you what fell before that. But if you look before, it snows pretty good for a few hours. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Still thinking 3-5" for N ORH county.  Been pretty much that since the crazy Euro run last week

[wxeyeNH]

Well finally.  After the last several winters of watching storm after storm go south its our turn up here.  I like my area for 6-9".   

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well you just posted a snap shot at 12z. Not sure how that tells you what fell before that. But if you look before, it snows pretty good for a few hours. 

I edited my earlier reply. 

Let's hope we can toss the GFS though.  It might be okay from north of Rt. 2, thoguh.

Actually, while this the GFS is worse for southern areas, it might be giving a little more to northern areas of SNE.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Doesn't appear anything has changed to me....RGEM is a little better than GFS and EURO

[blizzard24]

number one to many tv stations are going with warm storm and are not seeing the cold air will not move out fast for sne area . models have trend colder each run . For sne area  snow later today and monday morning with ice 4- 7 inches totals for hartford area and inland sne area north i -95 area . The models warm up to fast all the time .

I dont see any big warm up late dec . watch out for late next weekend for good storm .

[JC-CT]

number one to many tv stations are going with warm storm and are not seeing the cold air will not move out fast for sne area . models have trend colder each run . For sne area  snow later today and monday morning with ice 4- 7 inches totals for hartford area and inland sne area north i -95 area . The models warm up to fast all the time .

I dont see any big warm up late dec . watch out for late next weekend for good storm .

Yeah, it's one thing to throw out random bs with no support, but it's another to actually misrepresent what the models are showing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, it's one thing to throw out random bs with no support, but it's another to actually misrepresent what the models are showing.

well played. 

[codfishsnowman]

10 minutes ago, blizzard24 said:

number one to many tv stations are going with warm storm and are not seeing the cold air will not move out fast for sne area . models have trend colder each run . For sne area  snow later today and monday morning with ice 4- 7 inches totals for hartford area and inland sne area north i -95 area . The models warm up to fast all the time .

I dont see any big warm up late dec . watch out for late next weekend for good storm .

that is an extraordinarily ambitious forecast, I am sticking with 2 inches or less hfd to cef, 3 to 6 northern half of mass north

[dryslot]

GYX went with Winter Storm Warnings here

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't appear anything has changed to me....RGEM is a little better than GFS and EURO

More often than not is seems if models (GFS, EURO) can agree on a swfe event a week out then you pretty much already know what you're getting for snow in the interior.  2-5" weaker waves 4-8" stronger systems.  

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

RGEM is solid within 24hr, and GFS has a tendency to rush surface warming. If 12z euro today is similar to the RGEM then I'd lean towards those two. 1-3" is probably a reasonable call for much of EMA. 

[CoastalWx]

This looks like a nice event western MA-ORH-Interior NE MA. I think even nrn CT may put up a few 4 spots or so.

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX went with Winter Storm Warnings here

Congrats, Jeff--enjoy.  You are a possible jackpot winner amongst the posters.

[mahk_webstah]

 Although yes I am a wienie I have to say grays rationale for not having a winter storm warning anywhere in Merrimack County seems a bit weird. They seem quite reluctant to break out while county zones even when they should. I don't see anyway possible that Sanford Maine gets more snow than salisbury New Hampshire Andover New Hampshire and all the other areas out this way.   Seems to me that I still end up in the 6 to 8 inch range regardless of whether they issue a winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory

[dryslot]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Congrats, Jeff--enjoy.  You are a possible jackpot winner amongst the posters.

Thanks, But i'm expecting 5-7" or so, I think there may be a 10 spot out there up here

[Semper911]

Anyone have any thoughts about ice/freezing rain during the morning commute in Metrowest/south of the Pike? No one's really mentioning it, and it seems like it could really be an issue tomorrow. Seems like the changeover might take a few hours, and the in between time could be a sh*tshow.

Who has some thoughts on this?

[dryslot]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

 Although yes I am a wienie I have to say grays rationale for not having a winter storm warning anywhere in Merrimack County seems a bit weird. They seem quite reluctant to break out zones even when they should. I don't see anyway possible that Sanford Maine gets more snow than salisbury New Hampshire Andover New Hampshire and all the other areas out this way.   Seems to me that I still end up in the 6 to 8 inch range regardless of whether they issue a winter storm warning or a winter weather advisory

Well, I think i would still feel the same if i got 6" and they went WWA rather then WSW...........lol

[dryslot]

I guess GYX thinks there is 10" out there too

 

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Well, I think i would still feel the same if i got 6" and they went WWA rather then WSW...........lol

YesYes of course… And it's ocean wx I think who did the discussion so you have to respect his knowledge. But I still question whether Sanford should be in a winter storm warning and Merrimack County north of Concord shouldn't be

[512high]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I guess GYX thinks there is 10" out there too

Gosh, i have gone from 5-7, 3-6 to this????

[512high]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

Gosh, i have gone from 5-7, 3-6 to this????

*****My bad just saw the date stamp!

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, 512high said:

Gosh, i have gone from 5-7, 3-6 to this????

lol, No, Had to clear the cache, Looks like 4-6" for you

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Gosh, i have gone from 5-7, 3-6 to this????

Check the image date 

[jbenedet]

There's a few factors working in favor of a colder/snowier solution, particularly further north and east.

The peak of the storm looks to occur around dawn, so we will be at a solar minimum, which should help to slightly mitigate surface warming.

Precip rates will be robust with this, so areas right along the freezing line will benefit from dynamic cooling.

Eastern locations should hold onto the cold longer as surface WAA will be weaker, further away from the decaying surface low over the Great Lakes.

As a result I think the largest gradient for higher snow totals will be centered around 495 and the pike. I would take the RGEM snow accums and shift that south and east approx 25 miles.

[512high]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There's a few factors working in favor of a colder/snowier solution, particularly further north and east.

The peak of the storm looks to occur around dawn, so we will be at a solar minimum, which should help to slightly mitigate surface warming.

Precip rates will be robust with this, so areas right along the freezing line will benefit from dynamic cooling.

Eastern locations should hold onto the cold longer as surface WAA will be weaker, further away from the decaying surface low over the Great Lakes.

As a result I think the largest gradient for higher snow totals will be centered around 495 and the pike. I would take the RGEM snow accums and shift that south and east approx 25 miles.

If we get rain at the tail end, will there be a gradual drop in temp towards dusk? and not a flash freeze for snow removal operations etc.?

[512high]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Check the image date 

Ya, sorry, my bad on date stamp! ty

[amc]

GYX tweaked the totals a bit, looks like Windham will be a split between the north and south side of the town, Monday's commute and driving at work looks like it'll be slow going. Wonder if we'll be able to open snowmobile trails with this.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, amc said:

GYX tweaked the totals a bit, looks like Windham will be a split between the north and south side of the town, Monday's commute and driving at work looks like it'll be slow going. Wonder if we'll be able to open snowmobile trails with this.

I would think not, That is not enough snow to ride on unless your bombing around some fields, All this will do is cover up the obstructions, Thats how most folks wreck there sleds and themselves for that matter, It would be good if it had some meat to it to start a base.