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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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6 minutes ago, wxmx said:

113 kts surface winds from dropsonde during this last pass.

This was recorded about 20 miles south of Freeport

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I know there's an obs thread but I think we should log the highest gusts at land stations in FL each hour.

22z (6 pm EDT)

42 mph (north) at West Palm Beach and 41 mph (northeast) at Vero Beach.

 

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1 hour ago, adelphi_sky said:

Long time lurker. I have noticed that there is a lot of extrapolating from current headings as if Matthew's current trajectory won't be influenced an hour, two, three, or 8 hours from now by the same atmospheric patterns that are steering it now. We've gone from cone-watching to micro-adjustments and making predictions off of the micro-adjustments. I thought that was a no-no in these threads. I've heard very little on the overall patterns guiding Matthew today.  

It's on track.

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Seems like the outer eye wall is shrinking. Signs of strengthening, after the ERC is complete (if it ever is complete.)

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26 minutes ago, Thesolmachine said:

Wow, It's been doing that for a few frames too. What is the steering force pushing it back to the North? Sorry for being a noob. 

Eyewall convergence.

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21 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Unless Matthew is screaming up the coast, it won't travel in a perfectly straight line paralleling the coast.... thus even if the models never make landfall, the trochoidal wobbles, will certainly increase the chances of multiple landfalls if indeed Matthew rides just offshore by 20 or 30 miles...

Nevertheless I think the East Coast of Florida from Melbourne northward will periodically at least be in the western eye wall...

... and that is not even mentioning the often difficult to model land interaction of a core so close to land....

Correct.

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Seems like the outer eye wall is shrinking. Signs of strengthening, after the ERC is complete (if it ever is complete.)

Even with the decay of the inner eyewall, the organization looks to be improving with symmetry of the CDO and the center becoming more well placed in it as it expands.

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7 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Incredible battle between the inner and outer. Outer looks wicked right now. biggest eye to make landfall? 

Really interesting radar loop..  I think any wobbles or direction changes people are seeing with the inner circulation are more related to this interaction than the overall movement of the system.  As some posted above watch the movement of the outer eyewall feature to determine system movement.

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2 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Really interesting radar loop..  I think any wobbles or direction changes people are seeing with the inner circulation are more related to this interaction than the overall movement of the system.  As some posted above watch the movement of the outer eyewall feature to determine system movement.

 

Still headed in the direction of Cape Canaveral and Melbourne.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Blast from the IEW, fighting again. Fascinating to watch. Looked like the dry moat was filling in and then it reappeared.

The Miami radar is amazing as the outer wall tightens it grip on the inertial while the friction of closing is almost retrograding the inner eye.

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Freeport Bahamas is getting demolished by that NE Eyewall. Too bad Josh didn't head there. Town of 55k. Pictures out of there will be devastating most likely.

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The thing about wobbles is if it goes one way it usually comes back the other, it may take several hours though. My guess is it goes west of the track and then turns east of it again and we get 5000 more radar hallucination posts.

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22z HRRR continues to bring the eye of Matthew right along and over the coast for a long distance, from about Vero Beach north.

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