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weatherdude888

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  1. I've never really noticed....is it usually like that or is this an error in the 11PM discussion?
  2. Somewhat confused then (my apologies if I am misunderstanding), but that line shows 12H....why then is the time difference only 9 hours then?
  3. So this is the forecast position from NHC's 11PM discussion: INIT 06/0300Z 17.4N 61.1W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH Looking at this, it's only showing a gain of .7N over 12 hours, but it's current heading is 285.....shouldn't the N gain be somewhat larger than .7N, assuming a fairly constant heading? Also the first line is 06/300z and the second is 06/1200z which is 9 hours and not 12....
  4. I'm very concerned that the models are going to "jump" east by a large amount and someone on the east coast is going to get caught unaware. I remember reading something a few pages back about the model initializations giving a lot of weight to the current direction and speed of the storm when doing the plots. Is it possible that the anomalous SSW motion we saw earlier was somehow being magnified by the models and now that it looks to be heading NNW that a jump could occur?
  5. Heavy Sleet and ice pellets in New Springville.....wind is quite strong still, but only about 4-5 inches of snow (probable compaction and sleet on top of that)
  6. All of a sudden the pingers went silent........ripping heavy snow right now, wind is howling.
  7. Intensity has increased markedly in the last 10 minutes in Staten Island (New Springville), wind is up, but still mostly sleet / ice pellets.......so far a big disappointment, but hoping we get in to those heavier echoes and can overcome the warmth.....
  8. 25% Snow, 75% sleet in Staten Island.......radar returns appear as heavy snow........warm layer?
  9. If that verifies with ~70MPH over Staten Island, we are going to have major power issues.....99% of our power lines are above ground and with all of the trees + a heavy wet snow.........could be very significant outages
  10. Plain rain here in Staten Island.....Mid-Islandish Think we may be out of luck for anything frozen this go around.
  11. One brief period of snow 30 minutes ago....appears to be plain rain here on Staten Island....very concerned....2 hrs of precip wasted thus far.
  12. The NHC forecast around hour 96 has then ~750 Miles out I had looked earlier and at the 120HR mark, the storms appeared to be at the same latitude with a longitudinal separation of 9 degrees, which yields ~ 560 mile separation. From what I reviewed earlier it said interactions for tropical system begin at ~900 miles out. Haven't seen the later models, guessing they are showing more separation now?
  13. I asked this before but it got lost in the avalanche of recon reports earlier. Given the relative proximity of Matthew and Nicole, what effects can we expect from a Fujiwara interaction, on both the currently modeled track and the loop scenario as depicted by the EURO?
  14. What potential role could the Fujiwarha effect play in to the track modeling (are the models even programmed to account for this possibility). Based on what I've read, interaction appear to start at about ~900 miles between the systems. Over the next few days, both Matthew & Nicole will be at or closer to that value, could a possible interaction be disturbing or altering the track as depicted, or a track on the future?
  15. And with nothing to force it up, it kind of meanders around dumping buckets over SC......That would be an epic deluge.... Thanks for the information!