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About Msalgado

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    College Station, TX

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  1. Yeah I don't disagree at all, which is why I don't think there's going to be much more than an isolated threat unless they're completely wrong on that front. The S shape occuring below 700 mb is never good for low level rotation.
  2. That day had a long lived supercell that went up through Central OK though. What ruined the action own in Texas was ongoing elevate convection that eventually made it to the target area and just grew immediately upscale into an MCS. After that initial convection passed I remember getting a rotating supercell after dark in N Central TX. There are plenty of days where VB profiles still cause supercells. I'd agree that they generally look less than favorable and we probably won't see more than an isolated weak tornado tomorrow though.
  3. The windshear that causes the tornadoes is on a much smaller scale than the wind shear that disrupts hurricanes. A small eddy in the band of a hurricane can produce a tornado. We even saw some supercell like storms when Harvey came ashore because of this. However, windshear in the upper levels on a scale of the hurricane itself distrupts how efficently the circulation can transport heat form the ocean to the upper levels of the atmosphere and thus reduces the strength of the cyclone.
  4. Cloud tops along the western portion of the CDO had warmed over the past 3ish hours or so. However, the lastest GOES 16 images definitely show the eyewall on the western side cooling again. I suggest visiting the page below and viewing the same animations with different IR color schemes to get a better view of what's going on in the core. Yeah, its obvious Irma has weakened but its not clear that this trend will matter too much in the long run.
  5. Not sure why the full gif I linked isn't showing, but yeah, the last frame of the the gif is the scan you posted.
  6. I'll be very intersted to see how large the eye is after the EWRC is complete. It seems to be much larger via MW imagery.
  7. Irma is pretty damn near the theoretical maximum for hurricanes in that part of the world. There's no where left to explode to. The fact that it's maintaining the strength it is for so long is astounding.
  8. Nah most of us aren't stupid. There are always a few people who do it though. It's asinine.
  9. Probably see redevelopment within a couple of hours. Already signs of it on the western suburbs like Katy.
  10. Yup! I don't think I've ever seen this much lightning associated with a tropical system. Those storm tops are incredibly high. 55k ft!
  11. Houston NWS going to issue a flash flood emergency soon. Situation is deteriorating quickly.
  12. Obviously there could be areas worse than Rockport. I said that Bayside didn't get it worse than Rockport. Neither were along the NE quadrant but Rockport is also the largest city in the landfall area so I do doubt there will be much structural damage in other areas that comes close. You can't lose a 4 story hotel if you don't have one to begin with, for instance.
  13. There's not much there and there's no way it got anything worse than Rockport/Fulton.
  14. People doubting the end totals need to just look at some of the rain totals already. Just south of me we're already seeing areas that have gotten 10 inches of rain according to dopler estimates. Over the course of several days 4-5 inch daily amounts easily turn into 20 overall.