EastCoast NPZ Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Some kind of nice outside today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 47 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Some kind of nice outside today. Perfect day definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Spent a couple hours exploring the Cape Charles, VA area on my way home from the Outer Banks. Visited the State Park and National Wildlife Refuge. Beautiful day and area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 1 hour ago, ThePhotoGuy said: Spent a couple hours exploring the Cape Charles, VA area on my way home from the Outer Banks. Visited the State Park and National Wildlife Refuge. Beautiful day and area. I've never been down the eastern spine of Virginia having only gotten as far as Crisfield and Chincoteague before taking the ferry across to Point Lookout, but a friend of mine spent a week in the Cape Charles area recently and loved it. I've heard from a few friends that the area down there is incredibly beautiful. Glad that you had a nice day for exploring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I've never been down the eastern spine of Virginia having only gotten as far as Crisfield and Chincoteague before taking the ferry across to Point Lookout, but a friend of mine spent a week in the Cape Charles area recently and loved it. I've heard from a few friends that the area down there is incredibly beautiful. Glad that you had a nice day for exploring. Yeah, it is very beautiful area. Very "natural." It is pretty rural area. Might try to make it down next spring/summer for a couple days. I will post some pictures this week in the photo thread. It is a great area for kayakers, boaters, fisherman, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Looks like it may be a wet week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I've got fresh grass seed down. I'll take the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Good read today from the WPC http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Great weekend, weather-wise. Yesterday was pretty much perfect. Been putting it off, but I'd love to put down my grass seed this week. Problem is that we're getting a new deck put in, and I fully expect that any new grass will be trampled as soon as it emerges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 We will be lucky if the grass gets wet (out here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Hmmm... another GFS vs EURO fight... from this afternoon's LWX disco: Guidance is more solid on the low pressure that develops either redeveloping further west or being pulled west by the upper low on Thursday, with most guidance showing at least some rain across the region. It should be noted that while the GFS is fairly dry with more showery weather, the more southwesterly storm development depicted by the ECMWF nows shows several inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 For those talking grass: Its a great time for planting. You don't need to worry about rain until after it germinates. Then you'd better worry. After it does, mow it as soon and as often as you can. Also, if not planting, this is the best time of the year to kill weeds in the lawn. Just thought I'd try to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Latest qpf map from WPC has 3-5" across the region over the next 5 days. My forecast has up to 4" through Thursday. Seems the Euro idea is being favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 The GFS continues to hate DC for the upper low period. Latest run is maybe 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Tonight's rain appears to be headed for more of a wet driveway effect than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We will be lucky if the grass gets wet (out here) Bingo. Picked up a 0.02" soaker. Lasted almost 3 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Today was an EC NPZ special. I approve. Definitely appreciated the sunless day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 45 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Bingo. Picked up a 0.02" soaker. Lasted almost 3 minutes. It was brutal up here. The ground under the trees almost got wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 18z NAM actually printed out some okay severe numbers for Thursday evening - obviously it's the NAM at range so take it with many grains of salt. But with a big closed H5 someplace to the west it's worth keeping one eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 that's a lot of rain on the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 This is better than still 100 at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 .08" overnight. I'm pacing myself. You don't want to overdo it this early in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 HA! I'll believe rain when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Iatest from wpc....hmmm. 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Iatest from wpc....hmmm. That's 5-day QPF...meh. Call me when it's the Day 1 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 I got .67 from yesterday/overnight event. I bigly over performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 .45" from the overnight/morning showers. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 DAYS 2 AND 3... ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH EXPECT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HELP CONCENTRATE AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AROUND AND STRENGTHEN AROUND THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. INCREASINGLY STRONG AND BACKING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RATHER QUICK RESURGENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE UP NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH 250 MB RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL FACILITATE THE EXPANSION OF A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE LED BY THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SUGGEST HEAVY RAINS WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN PA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A THREAT FOR SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING...AND AS SUCH...A SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BACK AROUND FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND DOWN INTO KY. THIS IS WHEN SOME OF THE BIGGER MODEL DISAGREEMENTS SHOW UP AS THE ECMWF INSISTS ON THE UPPER LOW FOCUSING FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS/NAM/UKMET AND CMC ARE FARTHER EAST. THE ECMWF POSITION WOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT BACKING OF THE FLOW FOR THERE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE FLOW RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST PA...WESTERN MD...CENTRAL WV AND FAR WESTERN VA. THE REMAINING MODELS SUGGEST THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW OCCURRING A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC BUT INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NORTHERN VA INTO CENTRAL PA. THE GFS SUGGESTS 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES REACHING OVER 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL OVER CENTRAL PA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF FOCUSES THESE ANOMALIES FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WPC AT THIS TIME HAS DECIDED TO LEAN GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE ECMWF IN FAVOR OF A CONSENSUS THAT IS CLOSE TO A GFS/UKMET COMPROMISE. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH ENHANCED ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THE SET-UP FOR THIS EVENT BASICALLY IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF AN EAST COAST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER GIVEN THE LONG-FETCH ATLANTIC TRAJECTORY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. A MODERATE RISK IS BEING INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN MD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. LATER MODEL RUNS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL FINE-TUNING OF THIS OUTLOOK...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 0.27" from last nights showers. hoping for several inches over the next few days 63 and overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1.13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 This is looking like the usual severe precip cut-off at the Blue Ridge event. I'll be shocked to see even .50" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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