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NCSNOW

Valentine's Day Storm Obs

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Very heavy freezing rain in Elkin now. Maybe thunder and above freezing rain over the snow-pack for some overnight.

 

This is a setup where there will be puddles of water in your yard on top of the layer of ice protecting your snow. Saw it once sometime between the year 2000 and 2005. 

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It's been below 32 for 48 hours here, and I don't see a single icicle. This is odd.

The neighbors behind us have a row of leyland cypress trees and we have Pines. Usually those are the first to start drooping and they are still standing straight with a little snow on them. Why isn't this freezing to anything?

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29/28 in Easley. Have yet to see the first flake, pellet, or droplet come down from the sky for the entire event. Went to bed last night with 26/5. Total wetbulb and evap cooling fail for this one. I have found that evap cooling only works if there is a big initial burst of precip, otherwise it does absolutely nothing to help you. Precip still hours away - looks like I won't see a single droplet of frozen precip from this - total failure of a system for MBY anyway. Congrats to those further north in NC/VA/TN and up who got to see some. Maybe next winter will deliver more goods for the upstate (we say that every year)!

Exactly. It was said time and again that a lot would be dependent on getting heavier precipitation rates and during the day Monday. You don't get evaporation cooling if there is no precipitation evaporating. Again, this is the inefficient wet bulbing I mentioned yesterday.

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The neighbors behind us have a row of leyland cypress trees and we have Pines. Usually those are the first to start drooping and they are still standing straight with a little snow on them. Why isn't this freezing to anything?

 

Yep, large crepe myrtles outside my office window on the 2nd floor. Literally zero accretion. I never wanted a crippling ice storm, but still, this is annoying that I can't figure it out!

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Exactly. It was said time and again that a lot would be dependent on getting heavier precipitation rates and during the day Monday. You don't get evaporation cooling if there is no precipitation evaporating. Again, this is the inefficient wet bulbing I mentioned yesterday.

Must have missed that. Yeah, it's really been the story here in most of the upstate. All models had us getting in on some precip by daybreak today at the latest and some even starting last night before midnight. There have been a few scattered showers here or there, but I think most have yet to see any precip.  

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Must have missed that. Yeah, it's really been the story here in most of the upstate. All models had us getting in on some precip by daybreak today at the latest and some even starting last night before midnight. There have been a few scattered showers here or there, but I think most have yet to see any precip.

I hear ya. Frustrating system. This is a quote from the discussion I put out 8am Sunday morning.

" A HUGE key to this forecast tomorrow is getting heavier rates of precipitation into the dome of initially very cold, extremely dry air. For the areas north of I-40, I like the odds of getting at least some decent snow for a period of time late tonight into tomorrow morning, which should help to lock the wedge in for a while.

Further to the south, toward Charlotte and the Upstate, I do not like the trends right now on a lot of the modeling regarding precipitation rates tomorrow. At this point, my thinking is that precip rates through the day tomorrow will be quite light for most of this area, and if that's the case........."

"I call this inefficient wet-bulbing...where dewpoints creep up at a higher rate than the temperature drops would otherwise be with higher precip rates).

So, this region could wind up with a lot of clouds, freezing drizzle, and some sleet pellets after possibly brief snow initially."

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South Durham really missed out on the snow and sleet. We have about 2/10" of ice on the trees and such. It's around freezing now, so the melt is commencing.

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The neighbors behind us have a row of leyland cypress trees and we have Pines. Usually those are the first to start drooping and they are still standing straight with a little snow on them. Why isn't this freezing to anything?

 

My guess is the rain is warm, temps above you are well above freezing now, and the freezing layer is pretty shallow, so the rain isnt falling through a lot of cold air before reaching the ground so instead of being right at or even a bit below freezing the rain is in the 35-40 degree range. 

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Got to freezing a couple of hours ago, and have actually gone down 2/10ths since then. So the wedge in essence is still hanging on even here. The immediate coastal areas to my east are well above freezing, like Elizabeth City at 50.

 

I continue to see light zr and accrual continues. Trees around me are drooping and seem to be slowly gaining in their ice glaze.

 

The glaze is beautiful in a strange way, as are all ice storms, but I am thankful for a warm house so as not to be out in it for too long.

 

32 here.

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For the first time I can finally report a very light glaze of ice from the drizzle that's been falling for the last hour. Temp is still rock steady at 29 degree's.  It's amazing how much precip has fallen in Tennessee/Alabama. If the trajectory of that approaching short wave had been a little more in our favor so we could have capitalized on the stationary streak of precip from last night/this morning, we would have gotten a truly historic winter storm... Maybe next time.

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Temperature has been stuck at 28° since noon today.  I'm sure as soon as the leading edge of precipitation gets here the temperature will have skyrocketed to 32.1°.  Or maybe not.....This area tends to hold on a little longer than the western upstate.

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Some of you Triad folks (especially W-S) are going to be in for quite a precip band. I thought the yellow radar returns were definitely indicating sleet, but it was just heavy ZR, at least in Charlotte. Trees now starting to get iced up pretty good.

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Temperature has been stuck at 28° since noon today. I'm sure as soon as the leading edge of precipitation gets here the temperature will have skyrocketed to 32.1°. Or maybe not.....This area tends to hold on a little longer than the western upstate.

It's still 30, pretty far into NE Ga! Wedge is strong with this one! GSP just said CLT could get .5 QPF as zr, before the main band arrives, we are colder than CLT down here, will be interesting to watch the next few hours! WYFF 4 radar had temps at 32-33 at 7, and most are here at 26-28 currently, so models are already too warm! Had it 34 or so by 11, that may not happen

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