dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Shift this 150 mi west and we would have a lot of happy folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Mmm yes and a shift west is certainly among the myriad of possibilities... Just remember, as I am sure others have reasoned and mentioned in this thread - this last system teaches us that events can still shift dramatically enough in very short terms (relative to today's technological standard). I can easily envision a scenario where this particular system does just that. Suppose the amplifying trough in the Midwest digs a bit more? That would immediately translate to forcing the flow more south to north along and off-shore the East Coast, and up the coast she would come! I am not outright forecasting that - for one, my balls are only standard size. heh. The course of least regret is to go with the models, but just keep in mind that there are veracious reasons to watch. Hell, we don't even know if the heights out over the Atlantic Basin are being handled well enough - that could correct things NW in its own rite. It should at least snow some this week, though. Regardless of these pop-cycle headache considerations, that much cold heights with repeating wind maxes in the middle altitude flow under our latitude, quasi-norlun troughs should formulate and pivot periodically with bands of at least light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Mmm yes and a shift west is certainly among the myriad of possibilities... Just remember, as I am sure others have reasoned and mentioned in this thread - this last system teaches us that events can still shift dramatically enough in very short terms (relative to today's technological standard). I can easily envision a scenario where this particular system does just that. Suppose the amplifying trough in the Midwest digs a bit more? That would immediately translate to forcing the flow more south to north along and off-shore the East Coast, and up the coast she would come! I am not outright forecasting that - for one, my balls are only standard size. heh. The course of least regret is to go with the models, but just keep in mind that there are veracious reasons to watch. Hell, we don't even know if the heights out over the Atlantic Basin are being handled well enough - that could correct things NW in its own rite. It should at least snow some this week, though. Regardless of these pop-cycle headache considerations, that much cold heights with repeating wind maxes in the middle altitude flow under our latitude, quasi-norlun troughs should formulate and pivot periodically with bands of at least light snow. And that was what the models were showing earlier in the week, That and the higher heights out west which in turn had this coming more north and west, The WAR certainly played a part in yesterdays system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 And that was what the models were showing earlier in the week, That and the higher heights out west which in turn had this coming more north and west, The WAR certainly played a part in yesterdays system One thing that winter appeal seekers may like ... the high in eastern Canada is stubborn. It's locked in there thru mid-week or even Thurs. There is a long ....long ENE fetch likely to persist after ...whatever happens late Monday has moved on ..., doing so in a freezing column. In terms of enabling (haha) your psyches inside a protective bubble, there you go - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro ots with the first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Holy christ? Really? Not nearly as bad here, but it's the same reason you see me complaining about qpf--the last couple years have not been kind to BOX's western zones, both in actuality and relatively speaking. Shift this 150 mi west and we would have a lot of happy folks PT_PN_060_0000.gif If I had a dollar for every time I thought that, I'd be a rich man with lots of snow. Alas, I'm neither. Increasing sun angle showing up now. The roads which earlier would retain their snow cover for day/weeks after a storm have melted much of it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro ots with the first storm That's encouraging. Hopefully to Bermuda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro ots with the first storm It did come west a bit from 00z. I'm still on board for just a graze for maybe SE MA or CC. Second storm looks pretty lousy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Oye. That wasn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 With surgical precision euro reduces the Monday and Tuesday to 1-3 total in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking like a snowy week is reduced to flurries verbatim on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looking like a snowy week is reduced to flurries verbatim on the euro. Do we trust it? It has been awful this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 With surgical precision euro reduces the Monday and Tuesday to 1-3 total in eastern areas.I vote to ban the phrase "with surgical precision" for the rest of the winter haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 T minus like 5 min before Ray comes in and says, "yup just like I thought"...followed by a half melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Do we trust it? It has been awful this winter. Link? I think it's been pretty stellar actually..the best in the medium range....still the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is crazy. One or 2 melters getting upset because they aren't getting 12+, but upset it will be snowing more days than not next week. Mind numbing this is your 10th post talking about the same thing. We all get it, we are getting days of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I vote to ban the phrase "with surgical precision" for the rest of the winter haha No that's the motto of this winter, haha. Surgical precision to screw someone from snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm riding the 4k NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Probably a few salt crystals seeding some snow showers as soon as early Mon. morning. Could be some very light snow or snow showers area wide on Mon with a little enhancement for the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link? I think it's been pretty stellar actually..the best in the medium range....still the king. I think the GFS has been better with the storms this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link? I think it's been pretty stellar actually..the best in the medium range....still the king. This is a setup I wouldn't trust any guidance. Only reasonably confident that this won't produce a whopper storm. But the details of all these vort lobes and such will probably take another couple cycles to be resolved...even longer than that for some of the later stuff around D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I think the GFS has been better with the storms this winter The GFS has been horrific this winter, Especially inside of 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You can't really latch on to one solution or another quite yet, But a big storm seems less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You can't really latch on to one solution or another quite yet, But a big storm seems less likely Yep, that's a given. The mesoscale models will have a better handle of the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yep, that's a given. The mesoscale models will have a better handle of the inverted trough. Just to many waves in the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You can't really latch on to one solution or another quite yet, But a big storm seems less likely Yeah unless there's a big change (not impossible but unlikely), this is a question of a protracted 1-2" event or perhaps a 4-8" event where someone get lucky with a higher amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yep, that's a given. The mesoscale models will have a better handle of the inverted trough.Maybe when we're inside 24-36hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The Friday system was a completely different synoptic setup than the upcoming period. There is no reason to think that a modeling error in the run up to Friday has any bearing on the likelihood of a similar modeling error being exposed this weekend. I'm not ruling out anything. I just don't see a lot of positive wiggle room here. Any model shift would be a good shift IMO. Because the status quo is undesirable. The bigger the shift, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I agree with not latching on. I'm just pointing out what the euro says and acknowledging its superiority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe when we're inside 24-36hr... I don't trust any model until it's about 24-36 hours out. Point being the Jan blizzard and yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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