MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe when we're inside 24-36hr... I don't trust any model until it's about 24-36 hours out. Point being the Jan blizzard and yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Just to many waves in the flow[/quote which us a good thing I presume. Seems active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah unless there's a big change (not impossible but unlikely), this is a question of a protracted 1-2" event or perhaps a 4-8" event where someone get lucky with a higher amount. That first s/w kind of hold the cards for what comes up thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 At least couples will be miserably cold going out to dinner on Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Just to many waves in the flow[/quote which us a good thing I presume. Seems active. It would be if we can consolidate some into one, But the bigger problem is this first wave and where it is right now on the models, Getting this back far enough west to make for a larger scale event seems unlikely, So on that note, It would be better if it just gets as far east as possible to give the s/w rounding the base of the trough more room to amplify, We were seeing that solution earlier in the week, Still not a blockbuster, But it was showing a pretty good moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 At least couples will be miserably cold going out to dinner on Valentine's Day. That has been well modeled, Some of the coldest air of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That has been well modeled, Some of the coldest air of the seasonNot the thread for it, but man the euro is cold. It'll modify with dprog/dt but I'm guaranteed to get my first below zero with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I have not seen days of mood snow back this way since dec 2008 when over two days in between systems we really did pick up another three inches of fluff...even last year in a protracted feb event we had nearly a full day with nary a flake between impulses and i was nailed to the cross for being a debbie when i was just stating facts while some easterners never stopped snowing days of mood snow area wide is a more difficult atmospheric phenomenon to achieve than some may think...kinda rare along with a big coastal...maybe even moreso...the prolonged mood snow is definitely easier to achieve along the shoreline than interior. it for sure is a romantic notion though....days of dense overcast and occasional to steady light snow and temps in the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ARPEGE is still a hit with the coastal...for what none of us know is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ya, Kevin's idea of days and days of snow is in my opinion not going to happen. Those ideas usually consolidate into something less long, and many times much less of an event of any type. I agree codfishsnowman with your ideas of the days and days of snow idea. This is heading downhill fast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What I like about the 12z Euro run is not so much the conus trough depth / angle... that actually looks about same as 0z run... but heights over Western Atlantic have definitely ticked further north and west... you can see a distinctly greater kinking of heights back to the east coast as early as 30 hours... probably not enough leadtime to adjust towards more than a graze for eastern SNE, especially when you drop a bowling ball that far south, but the fresh lesson of underestimated Atlantic heights with 24 hours leadtime gives me a little pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ARPEGE is still a hit with the coastal...for what none of us know is worthIt has 1" QPF up here 00z Mon through 00z Tue. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It has 1" QPF up here 00z Mon through 00z Tue. Sounds reasonable.I wouldn't forecast it. But what wxsniss just posted mirrors my thoughts. We were just burned on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What do the euro ens look like for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not out yet What do the euro ens look like for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I don't think eps is the way to go so close in. There's bound to be a few members skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What do the euro ens look like for Monday?A little NW of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not out yetMy bad. I thought they started coming out at 2:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not out yet I have them to 162. What I said but system pretty east. On my phone so details aren't being combed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 My bad. I thought they started coming out at 2:45Out to 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam is looking a little west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 i am no expert but it looks far away to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam actually really nice looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 heh...the SREFs added a few weenie members into NNE too. PF can hang his hat on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Need a big jump at 0z on most models if there is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam actually really nice looking What's it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam led the way with jan blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nam led the way with jan blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'd take that NAM look down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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