eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's like 36hr or so accum for CT not 3 days. Less QPF than SNE received today, spread over 4 times the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's like 36hr or so accum for CT not 3 days. Whatever floats your boat. Boring to me though. I want the 'Behemoth' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Whatever floats your boat. Boring to me though. I want the 'Behemoth' As do i. But it is what it is. I'll take a widespread wintry feel over a dog **** December anyday. SNE has been spoiled with big systems last several years and now most just expect it or its a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Canadian is closer than 12z for sure. Which is a nice correction considering it was leaning E/ots the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 As do i. But it is what it is. I'll take a widespread wintry feel over a dog **** December anyday. SNE has been spoiled with big systems last several years and now most just expect it or its a fail. I get this....different strokes for different folks.....but just don't try to sell me the fact that this is on par with one of our most classic months. Believe me, it would help my cause if it were. I get that H5 may be classic, but like I said when the blizzard whiffed, if the heavy snow were 100 miles to the north, then this winter would have had a whooooole different vibe. But it wasn't. So it didn't. Personally, I'd rather go mild if we aren't to see at least a moderate impactor..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That will be dependent from the Monday storm. The more separation there is, the better the chance of something more than a few inches. The whole setup is complicated with such a deep trough and more energy rounding the bend of it....yet the first low is there to either much it up or help us. It could still totally change .....and no one hopes that t does more than I do. I thought we would have see more progress today with regard to the Monday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Still gives CT warning snow. Does that meet the time criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 For Monday? I'm not sold on it. Not impossible, but my money is maybe a graze far SE areas. After today's runs, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 My problem is that if that big ocean system grazes us, then we are ****ed.......either whack us, or go awaaaay. But the former is precisely what most models are shaking hands on at like 60 hours of lead....this isn't a day 6 scenario where you can simply wait until next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Everything except the NAM/SREFS/CMC. But not the models you'd prefer on your side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro will be well east with the Southern Stream wave , barely scrapes thd Cape with some OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro says buh bye storm 1. Let's see if storm 2 can take advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Storm 2 is a scraper. Decent for SE ma. That's close though to a pretty big solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Storm 2 is a scraper. Decent for SE ma. That's close though to a pretty big solution. Glad that it depicted storm number one further out. Think its a realistic shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The next wave digs and starts to intensify down to 985 off the Mid Atlantic, but very compact with its precip distribution,lighter snows through 96 with a better inverted signature to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Better look overall for storm 2, Unless we see some more reliable guidance shift storm 1 closer, I would rather have it scoot well east as others have stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Glad that it depicted storm number one further out. Think its a realistic shot? Yeah totally possible. This ufortunately is a complex setup. Unfortunate that if it wasn't we'd probably get hammered with not too much model deviation. But also because models will have trouble with it in its current form. It's going to be so important how much that first one behaves. Also even after it is gone that longwave trough has like ten different evolutions in how the energy rotates through it. That will matter too when we are having interference from the front runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah totally possible. This ufortunately is a complex setup. Unfortunate that if it wasn't we'd probably get hammered with not too much model deviation. But also because models will have trouble with it in its current form. It's going to be so important how much that first one behaves. Also even after it is gone that longwave trough has like ten different evolutions in how the energy rotates through it. That will matter too when we are having interference from the front runner. The upside here should be about a nice 8-12" deal. Hopefully the first wave trends further OTS......I had hoped it would trend closer, but that isn't going to work out. Thanks for the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I get .2" QPF, ACK gets .7", but they are on the edge of much more. KBOS .3". The meat is 96 hours out.....so the worst part would be Tuesday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Pretty miniscule qpf verbatim back this way, but this will most likely not remain static as our final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GEFS have a nice track, but the system itself seems relatively meager. i'm sure Kev and Steve would love it. JK Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 A nice track for which system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 MET Tommy Downes of Weatherbell, has a very nice article/blog about how storms this season are tracking more North and West, than what modeling shows, from at about 72 hours out. Interesting article for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I get .2" QPF, ACK gets .7", but they are on the edge of much more. KBOS .3". The meat is 96 hours out.....so the worst part would be Tuesday PM. A nice track for which system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 MET Tommy Downes of Weatherbell, has a very nice article/blog about how storms this season are tracking more North and West, than what modeling shows, from at about 72 hours out. Interesting article for sure. #strongelnino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 EPS are like a 3-6" event, less west of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 #strongelnino Nope. According to him....#gulstreamwarmatlanticsurfacetemps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is one of those events that still needs some time. I loved the general threat and that's why I created the thread days back. I firmly believe this might be one of the hallmark events of the winter. Let's hope one of the storms leaves leeway for the other in order intensify and hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe a vet can comment on this look... I think Ray's a vet. Go at it, Ray. 17.6/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Tommy Downs states, that systems usually follow the gulf stream and the baroclinic zone rather than scooting out into the ATL into a much colder/unsuitable environment. For a system of this magnitude( sub 970), It's should be searching for the path of least resistance and warmer waters, and that, according to Tom, is along the baroclinic zone which is basically the gulf stream into the BM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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