CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS says see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wont do it for Monday, lets see if the invt snows can turn into something more meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Vortmax in Florida not usually good for NE snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS says see ya.Did you expect anything different? If you think it hasn't had a progressive bias on each of the past several storms then you are antiweenie weenying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 00z GFS is east again, man when is this model going to catch on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I don't think the GFS is catching onto the non progressive pattern we are actually in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Did you expect anything different? If you think it hasn't had a progressive bias on each of the past several storms then you are antiweenie weenying. For Monday? I'm not sold on it. Not impossible, but my money is maybe a graze far SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS blows as usual. It has missed the last few storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 For Monday? I'm not sold on it. Not impossible, but my money is maybe a graze far SE areas. Too progressive? What do you think of the second threat (Wed) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Too progressive? What do you think of the second threat (Wed) ? No the GFS is too progressive, the overall setup is not progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe a vet can comment on this look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 For Monday? I'm not sold on it. Not impossible, but my money is maybe a graze far SE areas.I'm not sold either. I am sold that the GFS can't figure out that it is too far southeast for every east coast storm though. And I am sold that each of the last 4 or 5 east coast storms have come NW in the final 72 hours, including one that is still affecting the pattern.So I don't know. I'm not sold, but the GFS has a 996mb low at 48 hours. Compare that to the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Too progressive? What do you think of the second threat (Wed) ? The Monday ocean storm isn't progressive. The trof just dives to the Gulf coast near Florida and tracks east into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The 0z GFS height field evolution is pretty similar to 18z. There'll be some minor differences at the surface but that's decent run to run consistency through day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Too progressive? What do you think of the second threat (Wed) ? That will be dependent from the Monday storm. The more separation there is, the better the chance of something more than a few inches. The whole setup is complicated with such a deep trough and more energy rounding the bend of it....yet the first low is there to either much it up or help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Still gives CT warning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Still gives CT warning snow.we don't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Canadian is closer than 12z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 i'll take 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Still gives CT warning snow. Probably below warning criteria due to duration. Mostly light snow with temps near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Doesn't look like a great setup for the Upper Hudson Valley. Possibly not so great for the CT river valley either. Some upslope, some ocean enhancement, and some meso banding. Would be good for radar watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 not 10:1 clown maps either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Canadian is closer than 12z for sure.And deeper. I think that's key.Probably below warning criteria due to duration. Mostly light snow with temps near freezing.We must have been looking at different GFSs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That second system may produce 3-6" over 3 days. It's the first system you want closer to the coast if you're interested in something more substantial. Regardless, looks wintry over the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That second system may produce 3-6" over 3 days. It's the first system you want closer to the coast if you're interested in something more substantial. Regardless, looks wintry over the next week Pretty much, at the least we can get a wintry week and feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 looks like a warm core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 looks like a warm core hires_t850_ne_61.png I'd love to see a storm like that, even well off shore. Would be something. Does the NAM have a bias for overdoing pressure? I don't recall seeing a non-tropical 959mb low that far south before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's like 36hr or so accum for CT not 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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