The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 One of these days the NAM will bite people in the azz again. Probably today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 How many times over the years has someone posted: "It's the NAM"? "It's the NAM." It's nailed the last two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 When did you become a Meteorologist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 anyway you can post the map with some annotations to help explain? Dont have to, just curious as to what i should be looking for.Best way to do it if you have a browser open is to open the current run and prior run in separate tabs and toggle back and forth.Or use tropical tidbits but it may not be out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 No I'm on mobile ok. Actually I think im picking up what you're throwing down. the 1000 line in the bottom image is pointing to the east, where as in the top image it is pointing more ESE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 One of these days the NAM will bite people in the azz again. One of these days you will get bit in the azz on your way to 10" of "gone" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 One of these days the NAM will bite people in the azz again.The NAM is like an abusive boyfriend. It beats you to a pulp daily, but it just looks so damn fine that you keep coming back time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ok. Actually I think im picking up what you're throwing down. the 1000 line in the bottom image is pointing to the east, where as in the top image it is pointing more ESE?Yes you got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 "It's the NAM." It's nailed the last two events. Lol. Wut? For the Jan 27 storm it gave me 15" Reality gave me 15 flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The NAM is like an abusive boyfriend. It beats you to a pulp daily, but it just looks so damn fine that you keep coming back time and time again.This I get but RGEM not so much. Can't believe that 4KM run though. Geez hope I get power back by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 One of these days the NAM will bite people in the azz again. and the RGEM, still not in range right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Lol. Wut? For the Jan 27 storm it gave me 15" Reality gave me 15 flakes for how many runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 and the RGEM, still not in range right? Look at the comparison I posted, the height field adjusted tremendously within 24 hours into the run from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The NAM is like an abusive boyfriend. It beats you to a pulp daily, but it just looks so damn fine that you keep coming back time and time again. I just enjoying watching each model for what it is. I pass no judgement on them. We all know their strengths and weaknesses. Post em and see what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Look at the comparison I posted, the height field adjusted tremendously within 24 hours into the run from 12z. Good point. The changes are early on in that RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Getting cold?nope have propane ventless stove upstairs and down and vented one in the bedroom. Does suck the Genny decided this would be a good time to crap the bed. I wasted time today raking the roof just in case the mesos are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 nope have propane ventless stove upstairs and down and vented one in the bedroom. Does suck the Genny decided this would be a good time to crap the bed. I wasted time today raking the roof just in case the mesos are right I have one in my shop. When im not plowing in the winter I am restoring classics, wouldn't go without a propane heater. Edit... or working on lawn mowers haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z RGEM on board for a nice hit in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 One of these days the NAM will bite people in the azz again. yeah, ... I dunno though - the thing that disturbs me about this whole ferkokta evolution between the OV and western Atlantic between Sun-Wed seems to playing out in this run rather nicely. It always gives me pause when you visualize a possible necessary correction and then see it seem to begin manifesting on ensuing runs... We spoke earlier in the day about not liking that abnormally long (longitudinal) wave length ... a view point shared by all guidance, as the trough reaches its greatest amplitude. The correction for that - if need be - is a tad west, and ... therein is the rub! A tad west can mean anything fomr 2, 3, 4 ...7 even degrees of latitude translated down stream wrt to where the lead systems deep layer mechanics ultimately track. Well ... here, I'll illustrate: Most importantly.. this possible exaggeration of the long wave length was more extreme in the previous solution(s), and appears to be contracting as a ?favorable correction? That ridge in the west is awfully far west for where this trough is ending up in the east compared to both climo and baser wave space arguments. I'm sure stranger things have happened - okay. But... 1 deg longitude (or latitude) = 60 nautical miles. My eye's tell me this was about a degree perhaps even a little bit more, correction west. If can pull off even .5 deg west per run through tomorrow night, your talking 300 nautical miles of total correction west, which frankly, compressing the wave space between the western ridge and the OV trough amplitude, would allow that to happen. It really isn't that complicated... It's just a matter of whether that happens, or this just goes on to be one of those anomalous flow deals. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I just think its being sampled much better now that its dropping, quite rapidly actually, into the Plains so maybe tonight's 00Z suite will raise a few more eyebrows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z RGEM on board for a nice hit in E MA. Dude go back a page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 yeah, ... I dunno though - the thing that disturbs me about this whole ferkokta evolution between the OV and western Atlantic between Sun-Wed seems to playing out in this run rather nicely. It always gives me pause when you visualize a possible necessary correction and then see it seem to begin manifesting on ensuing runs... We spoke earlier in the day about not liking that abnormally long (longitudinal) wave length ... a view point shared by all guidance, as the trough reaches its greatest amplitude. The correction for that - if need be - is a tad west, and ... therein is the rub! A tad west can mean anything fomr 2, 3, 4 ...7 even degrees of latitude translated down stream wrt to where the lead systems deep layer mechanics ultimately track. Well ... here, I'll illustrate: correction.jpg Most importantly.. this possible exaggeration of the long wave length was more extreme in the previous solution(s), and appears to be contracting as a ?favorable correction? That ridge in the west is awfully far west for where this trough is ending up in the east compared to both climo and baser wave space arguments. I'm sure stranger things have happened - okay. But... 1 deg longitude (or latitude) = 60 nautical miles. My eye's tell me this was about a degree perhaps even a little bit more, correction west. If can pull off even .5 deg west per run through tomorrow night, your talking 300 nautical miles of total correction west, which frankly, compressing the wave space between the western ridge and the OV trough amplitude, would allow that to happen. It really isn't that complicated... It's just a matter of whether that happens, or this just goes on to be one of those anomalous flow deals. We'll see. I definitely agree as I showed the ridge axis being so far West, it almost has to correct a bit West, unless like you said its one of those anomalous flows that we so often see, but the physics says otherwise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well , it's going to snow . For days and days Sieges of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here we go again... I want to see shifts on the globals tonight if this is a real trend, but that's a pretty stark shift by the rgem and nam and it's early on as well that causes the change. Raises an eyebrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z gfs still is wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The NAM is like an abusive boyfriend. It beats you to a pulp daily, but it just looks so damn fine that you keep coming back time and time again. Lol, geezus dood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here we go again... I want to see shifts on the globals tonight if this is a real trend, but that's a pretty stark shift by the rgem and nam and it's early on as well that causes the change. Raises an eyebrow for sure. Tonight might even be too soon... Recall this last event; though it bears no synoptic similarity, the Euro led the short term correction but it only began some 36 hours out! We're still a minimum of 60 at this point for how/when this would affect on this lat/long - if at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GFS has flurries for all on the first storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 WSW issued for EMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z gfs still is wide right.Congrats on another WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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