Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[Jenkins]

For pike region it constricted qpf, it upped it on the south coast...0.75 gets into the first 10 miles or so of S CT/RI

 

Sounds like southern counties should be converted to warnings later today.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Based on what we've seen....

1-3" is my call for this area

[wxsniss]

Yeah not much change on Euro 12z vs. 0z

 

BOX might hold back on WSW outside of south coast

[CoastalWx]

Looks like virga curtains for the pike.

[dendrite]

For pike region it constricted qpf, it upped it on the south coast...0.75 gets into the first 10 miles or so of S CT/RI

 

 

 edit: I actually am wrong, it looks slightly less too on south coast

Yeah...down to about 0.50"/0.75" right on the south coast on my maps...but I only have CONUS and it's a strain trying to see the contours.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 - 6 inches should do it down here based on the euro and GFS alone

[Typhoon Tip]

it's kind of ...insulting for lack of better word to see rad returns moving sw in ne wi and n oh  ... that far west, and yet this pos can't come 100 mi further nw?  

 

okay - 

 

lol

[OSUmetstud]

The only bump for qpf was a slight one in western ct. Slight bump down elsewhere.

[WhiteLawns]

The only bump for qpf was a slight one in western ct. Slight bump down elsewhere.

Think thats just noise or is it picking up on something in western ct?

[Damage In Tolland]

How much for CT? Still 2-3?

[ORH_wxman]

3 - 6 inches should do it down here based on the euro and GFS alone

 

You may still do better than that...given that the best isn't for another 36-42 hours on guidance, there's a bit of time to try and nudge it north. It's gonna be close though for sure.

[ORH_wxman]

How much for CT? Still 2-3?

 

 

Gives you about a quarter inch qpf, so yeah.

 

I wouldn't take those at face value though right now...we'll see what hi res stuff says tonight when it gets closer...there could be some sharper cutoffs.

[JC-CT]

You may still do better than that...given that the best isn't for another 36-42 hours on guidance, there's a bit of time to try and nudge it north. It's gonna be close though for sure.

 

Do you see a super-sharp cutoff, or will there be a reasonable area with those type of accumulations?

[Damage In Tolland]

When do we start relying on the mesos for qpf and put the globals aside? Would that be tonight?

[OSUmetstud]

Think thats just noise or is it picking up on something in western ct?

Well there was a significant bump up in nyc south. Id imagine it has to do with the tucked in low holding up longer before the redevelopmemt happens farther ene.

[Ginx snewx]

Doing like the other models in NJ Delaware, playing catch up and increasing qpf. Watching that to see how far north that trend continues. WSW probably go up for FF NH NL counties with WWA for the rest except NW.

[OceanStWx]

When do we start relying on the mesos for qpf and put the globals aside? Would that be tonight?

 

Depends on what you're using them for in my opinion. If you want hard numbers, probably never as they tend to overestimate. But if you're looking for relative maxes or mins and axes of QPF, then especially useful with 24 hours to go.

[Typhoon Tip]

When do we start relying on the mesos for qpf and put the globals aside? Would that be tonight?

 

u should just start now-casting now.   

[JC-CT]

u should just start wish-casting now.   

 

You know it

[SouthCoastMA]

You may still do better than that...given that the best isn't for another 36-42 hours on guidance, there's a bit of time to try and nudge it north. It's gonna be close though for sure.

Yeah getting down to crunch time. You gotta think that if the mesos are on to something, the globals should be starting to pick up on it. Could be a scenario where mesos/globals converge to each other, which would be favorable as well

[Ginx snewx]

You know it

give us your best Cweat

[TalcottWx]

The few models that are showing a decent snowfall here... Feel like 10 insurgents fighting against an a-10 warthog... Just know my hopes are going to be obliterated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

u should just start now-casting now.   

I was thinking the same thing.

 

The EURO is going to be boring...we know this.

 

Just wait to see if its wrong.

[JC-CT]

give us your best Cweat

 

these things always tick southeast at the last moment

[TalcottWx]

I was thinking the same thing.

 

The EURO is going to be boring...we know this.

 

Just wait to see if its wrong.

It's going to blow watching the precip hit a wall on the south coast... urgh. 

 

Eh, who knows

[40/70 Benchmark]

these things always tick southeast at the last moment

Nah, you need GIFS displaying "another trim back on QPF".....

[Typhoon Tip]

i think the lack of n-stsream contribution to this thing ... at critical spatial-temporal opportunities while it was in route trundling east through the s is hugely contributory in what doomed this event for us. 

 

it may in fact still somehow shock all and throw the deformation axis up to alb-pwm and yadda yadda yadda fantasy getting dumb lucky, ...but probably won't. 

 

excluding that unlikely event ... i'm looking at a maxed out core at 24 hours, then, a 48 hours it's an open wave s of ns, in the process of flattening ever further out across the north atlantic.  i think that whole behavior sort of exposes some issues this thing has had all along. it needed an extra kick, some way to deepen the core or at least maintain it's depth as it tries(d) to leave the ma.  it would have released more latent heat on whole...dumping it into the downstream atlantic ridging, and then feeding back on forcing it to turn more up the coast. that's how these things work.  

 

as is, it's simply all been/be a matter of having enough intensity but it's maxed... it just dies with the exhaustion of mlvs, again ...indicative by the fact that the trough is filling pretty rapidly after 24 hours...

 

all this could be entire correct and still snow 6" in BOS out of this... but, for all intents and purposes, this far n is really saved from impact.  

 

one thing that occurs to me ... we had discussed at length multiple times this season that deconstructive wave interference seemed to be dominating the stream interactive behavior.  it's perhaps ironic that having 0 wave interference didn't help our one chance so far this winter at season recuperation. 

[Hoth]

The few models that are showing a decent snowfall here... Feel like 10 insurgents fighting against an a-10 warthog... Just know my hopes are going to be obliterated.

Good news for you then: the A-10 is being retired. Funny to think the last time Virginians saw a snowfall of this magnitude, they were still saying, "God save King George!"

[40/70 Benchmark]

i think the lack of n-stsream contribution to this thing ... at critical spatial-temporal opportunities while it was in route trundling east through the s is hugely contributory in what doomed this event for us. 

 

it may in fact still somehow shock all and throw the deformation axis up to alb-pwm and yadda yadda yadda fantasy getting dumb lucky, ...but probably won't. 

 

excluding that unlikely event ... i'm looking at a maxed out core at 24 hours, then, a 48 hours it's an open wave s of ns, in the process of flattening ever further out across the north atlantic.  i think that whole behavior sort of exposes some issues this thing has had all along. it needed an extra kick, some way to deepen the core or at least maintain it's depth as it tries(d) to leave the ma.  it would have released more latent heat on whole...dumping it into the downstream atlantic ridging, and then feeding back on forcing it to turn more up the coast. that's how these things work.  

 

as is, it's simple all been/be a matter of having enough intensity but it's maxed... it just dies with the exhaustion of mlvs, again ...indicative by the fact that the trough is filling pretty rapidly after 24 hours...

 

all this could be entire correct and still snow 6" in BOS out of this... but, for all intents and purposes, this far n is really saved from impact.  

Usually you engender feeling of hope like some elaborate SCI-FI script, but that was terrible.

[TalcottWx]

Good news for you then: the A-10 is being retired. Funny to think the last time Virginians saw a snowfall of this magnitude, they were still saying, "God save King George!"

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