Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[Ginx snewx]

What are your thoughts on your employer's model?

not bad could put on some weight

[dan11295]

Yea NYC mets as well have a really tough call on this one. With such a sharp cutoff plus the uncertainty about the evolution of the storm after it gets cutoff and occludes means easy potential for busts on the north end of this. Big question for NYC and south coast ofCT especially is where/whether that frontal band sets up on the northern end and its intensity.  

[MegaMike]

party is about to start in DC

A decent amount of people still walking out and about near the Washington Monument. Looks overcast based on EarthCam.

 

May get very, very interesting later on.

 

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/dc/nationalmall/?cam=nationalmall

[Hoth]

Thundersnow in Nashville. Tons of energy in this sucker.

[CoastalWx]

Brought that newly formed CCB further NW this run into E MA. Upped BOS area by a few inches. We'll have to watch that. Prob will be choking on sand but someone nearby could do a lot better than forecasts have right now.

 

 

Yeah i was just talking to some people here about that just now. Something to watch for sure.

[JC-CT]

Alright she's initialized

[CoastalWx]

What are your thoughts on your employer's model?

 

 

I don't trust it outside 36 hrs. But right now, I look for trends. I am always a bit skeptical of the output even 24 rs from start time, but it does do well with mesoscale features...at least it did last year. Srfc temps seem biased warm.

[CoastalWx]

Can you confirm that it is run off the ARW core? Because that makes sense with the map Kevin posted.

 

Yeah I asked. Waiting. It does use RAP for help with initializing.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

EURO definitely has work to do to correct the northward extent of snow valid for 00z tonight.  Yesterday's runs were about 6-8 hours too slow with the northern extent.. Hopefully this correction north gives the northern fringe of the storm a good push north into our area.. 

[JC-CT]

EURO definitely has work to do to correct the northward extent of snow valid for 00z tonight.  Yesterday's runs were about 6-8 hours too slow with the northern extent.. Hopefully this correction north gives the northern fringe of the storm a good push north into our area.. 

 

Have I mentioned how much I hate that we can't get free 12 hour Euro maps?

 

Well, looks better at initialization than yesterday's 12z anyway.

[DavisStraight]

RPM crushes SE MA near the canal again.

Is the rpm the one they use on tv?

[TalcottWx]

Brought that newly formed CCB further NW this run into E MA. Upped BOS area by a few inches. We'll have to watch that. Prob will be choking on sand but someone nearby could do a lot better than forecasts have right now.

Can someone post the RPM

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Have I mentioned how much I hate that we can't get free 12 hour Euro maps?

 

Well, looks better at initialization than yesterday's 12z anyway.

I know, it's fixed the northern extent and now matches GFS at 00z tonight

[danstorm]

I don't trust it outside 36 hrs. But right now, I look for trends. I am always a bit skeptical of the output even 24 rs from start time, but it does do well with mesoscale features...at least it did last year. Srfc temps seem biased warm.

 

I reallyask because it gives MBY 24-30

[dendrite]

Euro rips DC-IAD 6-12z tonight. A weenie 1" QPF in 6hrs.

[dendrite]

Not much change in the euro.

[wxsniss]

Thru 18 hours... ULL ticked north (now to KY / TN border vs. TN / AL border)

[CoastalWx]

I reallyask because it gives MBY 24-30

 

Seems a bit high..lol.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

definitely a SLIGHT nudge north for the south coast.. no trend south which is good... Long island really gets hit good 12"+

[ORH_wxman]

No real changes on the Euro...really slight this run.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe a hair better for the Cape and SE MA. 

[dendrite]

QPF looks a hair south to me through 42hr...mostly noise

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

definitely a SLIGHT nudge north for the south coast.. no trend south which is good... Long island really gets hit good 12"+

How's wnj into nyc?

[TalcottWx]

No real changes on the Euro...really slight this run.

Well, screw the euro then.

[ORH_wxman]

QPF looks a hair south to me through 42hr...mostly noise

 

For pike region it constricted qpf, it upped it on the south coast...0.75 gets into the first 10 miles or so of S CT/RI

 

 

 edit: I actually am wrong, it looks slightly less too on south coast

[lakeeffectkid383]

Feeling somewhat confident of 6" here now

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

For pike region it constricted qpf, it upped it on the south coast...0.75 gets into the first 10 miles or so of S CT/RI

edit: I actually am wrong, it looks slightly less too on south coast

Usually where the deform band sets up.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Should the EURO make me confident on 6-12" falling on Cape Cod?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Definitely looks a tic better here

[ORH_wxman]

It was slightly better for the Cape is where it increased....but we're talking such small movements in all these areas