Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[bobbutts]

Ukie for the QPF Queens:

 

I know you meant the other queens, but look at the gradient over Queens NY.. Really tough forecast for that area.

[Bostonseminole]

Ukie pretty much held serve - would probably verify close to Kevin's totals

 

 

UKIE gets .3" up to BOS, a hair better than 0z

 

 

UKMET is nearly dead nuts..maybe very slightly south of 0z.

 

 

It's not really a bump north. 

 

ok

[wxsniss]

My issue is Saturday evening. It looks like one final push of the CCB from that vort lobe moving N and NW. I think that happens. Now will this hit eastern and SE areas? This is aside from the H7 fronto band along south coast. My best guess is that the S coastline is getting S+ for a time. I think the banding makes it. My issue is BOS and I can't get a good feel...but it makes me nervous the lift monster lurks just offshore...especially if I were in SE MA.

 

Challenging also because  is it's not a large scale synoptic feature that drives that lift, it's a piece of vorticity that happens to sling up and invigorate a low with a CCB into SNE...

 

And given the shifts in the past 12 hours, I'm not even sure the large scale synoptic features (e.g. placement and track of ULL) are finalized yet... not by a computer but would love to start comparisons of RAP outputs of NAM vs. the rest.

[CoastalWx]

Can any Met talk about the Virga aspect in NCT and the Pike region. I know models are printing out precip but looking at RH values, dews, Pwats, etc I'm wondering if we can saturate fully in that region?

 

Models sometimes underestimate this. It's very dry at 850 and with a screaming N wind, it would be worrisome. I worry about that near the pike.

[JC-CT]

ok

 

Minor changes among the gradients so IMBY posting will give the wrong impression. On the very northern periphery it cut back ever so slightly, but that's not particularly meaningful. It was very, very similar to 0z for both the NYC region and SNE.

[TalcottWx]

Your noontime wv loop:

[Sn0waddict]

GEFS scrap the south coast of CT with 1" QPF

[Damage In Tolland]

[CoastalWx]

Even the SPC WRF has it.....although yes it is the WRF.

[CoastalWx]

 

 

 

Banned.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Through all of the back and forth with the models this week one thing has been consistent. MPM gets nothing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Through all of the back and forth with the models this week one thing has been consistent. MPM gets nothing.

[JC-CT]

Through all of the back and forth with the models this week one thing has been consistent. MPM gets nothing.

 

Classic. He may have some QPF concerns with this one, I agree.

[SouthCoastMA]

GEFS pretty much followed OP

A slight tick north from 6z though, regionwide.

[JC-CT]

A slight tick north from 6z though, regionwide.

 

Right, which is what the OP did

[SouthCoastMA]

Right, which is what the OP did

Gotcha, I misunderstood.

[butterfish55]

Through all of the back and forth with the models this week one thing has been consistent. MPM gets nothing.

this made me legit LOL. Nicely done

[WinterWolf]

Every lil bit helps in this very dicey situation....let's hope the Euro ticks north a bit more too..it did at 0z which was very nice.

[Hoth]

Lol GEFS are greater than 30" around DC. Never seen that on an ensemble mean before.

[CoastalWx]

RPM crushes SE MA near the canal again.

[powderfreak]

Through all of the back and forth with the models this week one thing has been consistent. MPM gets nothing.

It doesn't snow anymore in western New England .

[Damage In Tolland]

Right, which is what the OP did

Post up the GEPS..they are a pretty nice hit. Since you like ensembles

[JC-CT]

RPM crushes SE MA near the canal again.

 

Can you confirm that it is run off the ARW core? Because that makes sense with the map Kevin posted.

[JC-CT]

Post up the GEPS..they are a pretty nice hit. Since you like ensembles

 

I do?

 

Anyway, I haven't seen them. Can you post them?

[Bostonseminole]

party is about to start in DC

[40/70 Benchmark]

RPM crushes SE MA near the canal again.

You know there is s small part of me hoping the Gulf stream convection thrusts this about 75 mi n of modeling.

[WinterWolf]

Can you confirm that it is run off the ARW core? Because that makes sense with the map Kevin posted.

That run that Kevin posted was good for alot of SNE...gave me 1.50 plus on that.

[Hoth]

You know there is s small part of me hoping the Gulf stream convection thrusts this about 75 mi n of modeling.

Ditto, but I'd like to really see that start firing soon for any hope of that.

[ORH_wxman]

RPM crushes SE MA near the canal again.

Brought that newly formed CCB further NW this run into E MA. Upped BOS area by a few inches. We'll have to watch that. Prob will be choking on sand but someone nearby could do a lot better than forecasts have right now.

[danstorm]

RPM crushes SE MA near the canal again.

 

What are your thoughts on your employer's model?