Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[Ginx snewx]

Nice try, I'm not trying to steal your snow Steve, Congrats, I will keep this on the back burner

lol its true, there is no snow to steal from me unless you want meh rates. I think this could be a big deal for my work though.

[OceanStWx]

They increased QPF again.

 

This is why powderfreak would stare at them until the last drop was gone from his bottle of jack.

 

If they keep it up, it'll be congrats Montreal by the time it starts snowing.

[dryslot]

lol its true, there is no snow to steal from me unless you want meh rates. I think this could be a big deal for my work though.

 

Further south the better

[SouthCoastMA]

Tuck that low 20 miles north and that inflow deform really crushes the south coast. Total now cast for them. I give more credence to mesos like the RGEM inside 24 for that stuff. Totally immersed in this on my day off. What a beast

Definitely a high stakes now cast for the south coasts..I'm pretty excited to track it.

I think if the meso's hold serve at 18z and 00z, we're going to have to start factoring them in a bit more. Unless they are THAT bad, which is entirely possible, especially the SREFS.

[CT Valley Snowman]

The thing about the NAM sim radar is that it generally drops qpf under it...so in that sense, the qpf is lining up pretty well. Ther'es been snow in extreme

southern Ohio and SW PA.

So in general, do the models account for virga in their computations, qpf numbers, mass fields, radar depiction etc.,?

[powderfreak]

Jeff likes being a wet blanket when he has zero stake. I will totally enjoy my forecasted 2 -3 inches and hope the Globals continue to inch north.

Haha what was the wet blanket about? I didn't get that feeling but I know it's different when you're on the edge already.

[dryslot]

So in general, do the models account for virga in their computations, qpf numbers, mass fields, radar depiction etc.,?

 

I think that is all factored in

[powderfreak]

If they keep it up, it'll be congrats Montreal by the time it starts snowing.

There was one ARW last night that did just that.

[dryslot]

Haha what was the wet blanket about? I didn't get that feeling but I know it's different when you're on the edge already.

 

Yeah, I don't know i thought i have been more civil then others lol

[dendrite]

So in general, do the models account for virga in their computations, qpf numbers, mass fields, radar depiction etc.,?

idk about the sim radar, but yeah...virga for sure. I actually thought they did try to simulate the radar with virga as well, but if Will says no then it probably doesn't.

[78Blizzard]

19z vs 18z

Shield has already advanced at least to what was depicted at 21z on NAM.

[dryslot]

There was one ARW last night that did just that.

 

One of the runs last night member ARP4 had 16.50" here............

[dendrite]

Here's your 2pm present wx....

 

[OceanStWx]

So in general, do the models account for virga in their computations, qpf numbers, mass fields, radar depiction etc.,?

 

Disclaimer: I truly know nothing about this.

 

But simulated reflectivity is just that, simulated. So I'm guessing it is somehow reverse engineering QPF to reflectivity. Example, 0.01" QPF gets a dBZ of 10, etc.

[forkyfork]

i like nyc banding potential. on the north edge of modeled heavy qpf with subsidence to the north

[Hoth]

i like nyc banding potential. on the north edge of modeled heavy qpf with subsidence to the north

Yeah, you guys look increasingly solid.

[Ginx snewx]

Haha what was the wet blanket about? I didn't get that feeling but I know it's different when you're on the edge already.

He and I are good friends, he knows what I mean.

[powderfreak]

So in general, do the models account for virga in their computations, qpf numbers, mass fields, radar depiction etc.,?

I think it's more that sometimes they over moisten the northern edge, as you often get a dry northerly flow at the SFC.

[78Blizzard]

Here's your 2pm present wx....

 

wx01221619zMA.gif

 

Seven springs PA reporting snow

[Damage In Tolland]

Beware the models weenie bands south ..that end up north.

The Freak rule

[powderfreak]

Disclaimer: I truly know nothing about this.

But simulated reflectivity is just that, simulated. So I'm guessing it is somehow reverse engineering QPF to reflectivity. Example, 0.01" QPF gets a dBZ of 10, etc.

That's what I thought. It's all connected to the QPF fields and how much it's printing out in the 1-3-6 hour time frame being analyzed, is what it's "simulated radar" is showing.

[ineedsnow]

Nam out to 3 let's see what fun it brings us this time

[powderfreak]

Beware the models weenie bands south ..that end up north.

The Freak rule

Watch those 700mb-500mb fronto plots.

[dendrite]

That's what I thought. It's all connected to the QPF fields and how much it's printing out in the 1-3-6 hour time frame being analyzed, is what it's "simulated radar" is showing.

I'm pretty sure I've seen simulated radar echoes up here before with nada QPF. We'll have to watch it with this system.

[OceanStWx]

I'm pretty sure I've seen simulated radar echoes up here before with nada QPF. We'll have to watch it with this system.

 

It's definitely possible. Like most models simulated cloud cover based off RH fields at various levels, but the RGEM actually explicitly forecasts clouds. It doesn't just infer them.

 

So if the Canadians can do it, why can't we?

[Hoth]

Pressure falls.

[powderfreak]

I'm pretty sure I've seen simulated radar echoes up here before with nada QPF. We'll have to watch it with this system.

Yeah I guess I haven't paid that much attention to those products. I just figured if you are under radar echoes it would at least do a 0.01" for that 6-hour block.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's your 2pm present wx....

 

wx01221619zMA.gif

 

 

A more robust view IMHO:

 

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

To my eyes the nam looks a bit north of 12z... But then again I'm half blind so...

[ORH_wxman]

To my eyes the nam looks a bit north of 12z... But then again I'm half blind so...

 

The Scooter Sh**streak looks slightly worse, but the ULL is also stronger/larger again...we'll see if that translates to any meaningful change