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stormtracker

January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

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I'm new to the Northern VA area.  I'm out in Herndon;  A stone's throw from Dulles.  Looking at some historical data it looks like this area gets dumped on pretty good in just about every snowstorm like this.  Even with the Euro looking South, areas NW of the L are usually under-forecasted, right?  I'm still a newb when it comes to all of this, but I have a feeling it will start snowing here earlier than Friday morning and that the ratio will be higher than forecasted due to the temperature.  

 

Can someone with much more knowledge than I have (So, basically any of you), tell me if I'm on the right train of thought here, or if I'm way off?

 

 

By way of a serious answer -- I've lived in the MD/DC area for nearly 15 years. It's hard to say, but my feeling is you're right regarding areas NW of the lows.

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the surface low pressure center is in the exact same location as the euro.

The GFS shifted south by 50-100 miles compared to this mornings 6z  However, we seem to do fine with the precip 

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By way of a serious answer -- I've lived in the MD/DC area for nearly 15 years. It's hard to say, but my feeling is you're right regarding areas NW of the lows.

The 18Z GFS did just that. Leesburg bulls-eye!

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So the good news here is that the GFS may have gone south and east but precip seems to work none the less

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At this point, probably silly to take models seriously regarding where the deform bands will be, but a great sign that there will be deform bands like this somewhere, right? Great run so far Baltimore and south. 

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It's a hair south at H5 - it's not like a leap, though. It looks pretty similar overall to my eyes at the 500mb level on IWM. 

It's a tiny shift.  Loop through all of today's runs on TropicalTidbits for the 6z Saturday timeframe.  Aside from the 6z, which was somewhat farther north, the other 3 (0z, 12z, and now 18z) are pretty darn close to each other.  Certainly well within a reasonable noise level for a 3-4 day forecast. 

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