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Continued Winter Banter.

Ericjcrash

By Ericjcrash,
in New York City Metro

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted

PB GFI has been the best forecaster in this sub forum this winter. He called the El Niño as being not east based. 

 

This was a basin-wide El Nino event and that is not remotely in question.  Under no circumstances can this El Nino qualify as a modoki.  We're looking at the standard decaying El Nino at the moment.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

This was a basin-wide El Nino event and that is not remotely in question.  Under no circumstances can this El Nino qualify as a modoki.  We're looking at the standard decaying El Nino at the moment.

 

Terrible post 

 

 

We argued Basin wide since Aug/Sept 

 

 

PB GFI, on 03 Sept 2015 - 1:44 PM, said:

 

The greatest departures from normal are found in Region 3 and 3.4 . So this is not an east based NINO .

R 3 - 3.4 continue to looks strong through the fall .

 

To give one an idea of an east based vs central NINO R 1.2  was at 2.6  3 weeks ago than dropped to 1.7 inside those 3 weeks before ticking  back to 2 . 

 

I have not seen guidance that spikes the region again . 

I would define this Nino as basin wide with the strongest forcing by the time we get into the winter to originate out of the central basin and not the eastern regions . 

During this same time R 4 has also ticked up 

 

BASIN WIDE 

.....................1+2...3...3.4....4

05AUG2015... 2.6  2.3 1.9 0.9

12AUG2015   2.0  2.2  2.0  0.9

19AUG2015   1.7  2.2  2.1  1.1

26AUG2015   2.0  2.3 2.2  1.1

 

EAST BASED 

VS

27AUG1997  3.7  2.7 2.0  0.5

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted

With Jan 16 in the book, let's take a look at final temp departures.

 

KEWR: +1.6

KISP: +2.56

KJFK: +1.82

KLGA: +2.69

KNYC: +1.74

KHPN: +2.66

 

Still broadly above, but obviously not to the extremes seen in December and definitely not the hard cold that had been advertised by some.  As can often be the case in El Nino's, we had a lot of modulation of cold air in the east this month, and were still able to squeeze out an amazing snow storm against a background warmer signal.

 

For those of you who care for this sort of thing, I've calculated national HDD's at 923.25, a solid 29.8 HDD's warmer than the 30 year normal.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

That's not correct.

 

AO02012016.jpg

 

The EPS also features similar blocking at the above timeframe.

I see your point - BUT looking at that AO forecast the average consensus has the AO only reaching about half as low as the previous downturn last month BUT it is also forecast to rebound quickly towards neutral again as we approach the 10 -15 day period which could imply another strong winter event for the area IMO also supporting this is the NAO is forecasted to gradually turn more towards neutral about the same time as is the PNA with the EPO remaining negative . MJO is forecasted to run through 4-5 heading towards a more favorable colder 6 - but then again these are only forecasts as of today - could change and what actually verifies might be different...

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

I see your point - BUT looking at that AO forecast the average consensus has the AO only reaching about half as low as the previous downturn last month BUT it is also forecast to rebound quickly towards neutral again as we approach the 10 -15 day period which could imply another strong winter event for the area IMO also supporting this is the NAO is forecasted to gradually turn more towards neutral about the same time as is the PNA with the EPO remaining negative . MJO is forecasted to run through 4-5 heading towards a more favorable colder 6 - but then again these are only forecasts as of today - could change and what actually verifies might be different...

We agree. Right now, the block does not look as strong as the January one, though it has trended stronger in recent days. All in all, I'm thinking the month will wind up somewhat on the warmer side of normal (+0.8° was my guess).

 

Of course, some of the colder weekly guidance could be out to lunch so to speak and the second half of the month could wind up close to normal (or perhaps even milder should the blocking collapse).  Week 3 and 4 forecasts are a little better than coin tosses in the larger scheme of things, so I gave them some weight (not much, but some). Otherwise, I might have guessed something close to +2.0°.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

With Jan 16 in the book, let's take a look at final temp departures.

KEWR: +1.6

KISP: +2.56

KJFK: +1.82

KLGA: +2.69

KNYC: +1.74

KHPN: +2.66

Still broadly above, but obviously not to the extremes seen in December and definitely not the hard cold that had been advertised by some. As can often be the case in El Nino's, we had a lot of modulation of cold air in the east this month, and were still able to squeeze out an amazing snow storm against a background warmer signal.

For those of you who care for this sort of thing, I've calculated national HDD's at 923.25, a solid 29.8 HDD's warmer than the 30 year normal.

There is no doubt that even though this could finish warmer than 97-98 on average it wasn't even close to as mild as that winter was wall to wall. One month basically skewed the entire thing.

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted

There is no doubt that even though this could finish warmer than 97-98 on average it wasn't even close to as mild as that winter was wall to wall. One month basically skewed the entire thing.

 

Sure.  But I also don't think all Nino's are created equal.  I think you have a background forcing state which is always somewhat present and sub-seasonal modulators of that background signal.  Sometimes, the signal can be completely overwhelmed or it can be amped to the extreme within the bounds of standard sub-seasonal variability.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

this was the third strongest el nino on the mei scale...

el nino winters rated by the mei index...

winter.....max mei date D/J mei.....max oni date DJF oni.....snowfall.....big snow ave temp

1982-83...3.038 F/M...2.689..........2.2 NDJ..........2.2..........27.2".....17.6".....37.9

1997-98...3.004 J/A....2.481..........2.4 OND.........2.2...........5.5".......5.0".....39.6

2015-16...2.527 A/S.......................2.3 OND........................27.2".....26.8".........

1991-92...2.271 M/A...1.751..........1.6 DJF..........1.6..........12.6".......6.2".....37.2

1987-88...2.140 A/M...1.093..........1.6 JAS..........0.8..........19.1".......5.8".....34.8

1992-93...1.992 A/M...0.700..........0.6 MAM.........0.2..........24.5".....10.6".....35.0

1972-73...1.944 N/D...1.705..........2.1 OND.........1.8............2.8".......1.8".....35.8

 

2009-10...1.517 J/F....1.148..........1.6 NDJ..........1.6..........51.4".....20.9".....33.8

1965-66...1.477 J/A....1.322..........1.9 OND.........1.4..........21.4".......6.8".....35.9

1957-58...1.474 D/J....1.474..........1.8 NDJ..........1.8..........44.7".....11.8".....33.3

1994-95...1.434 S/O...1.197..........1.2 NDJ..........1.0..........11.8".....10.8".....37.1

2006-07...1.290 O/N...0.970..........1.0 OND.........0.7..........12.4".......5.5".....36.5

2002-03...1.180 D/J....1.180..........1.3 OND.........1.1..........49.3".....19.8".....31.2

1976-77...1.026 A/S...0.517..........0.8 OND.........0.6..........24.5".......5.2".....28.5

 

2004-05...1.018 F/M...0.296.........0.7 OND.........0.6..........41.0".....13.8".....35.4

1979-80...1.015 N/D...0.694.........0.6 NDJ..........0.5..........12.8".......4.6".....35.4

1977-78...1.007 S/O...0.779.........0.8 NDJ..........0.7..........50.7".....17.7".....30.3

2014-15...0.932 A/M...0.406.........0.7 NDJ..........0.6..........50.3".......9.8".....31.7

this year should end up averaging 40.0 or higher...snowfall could be around 40"...D/J mei should be close to 2.000 and the on1 close to 2.2...so far it's one big storm and nothing else...but we still have six to eight weeks left for chances...2015-16 will end up warmer than 1982-83, 1997-98, 1972-73 unless February is very cold and it's starting out mild...

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

I could see us getting 30-40" easily with a top 5 warmest winter, which would be unprecedented. Agree that mid month offers the best chance at another snowstorm with the AO dipping.

maybe....but the cold spell is looking less and less by the day-so if we miss that we run the chance of being skunked with the torch on both ends of the month

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

i was going to quote pb's ignore the nam posts but he deleted them. lol

 

I don`t delete anything ,  it should be there 

 

I SAID IGNORE THE NAM

 

YOU WERE OTS 7 DAYS OUT /WHEN I SAID BLIZZARD . DID YOU FIND THOSE ? 

 

I WAS 10 PLUS 20 IN CNJ  2 DAYS OUT 

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted

1- 7 may end + 10 . Then there will be a cold with a potential snow period between or at the back end of day 10 - 15 . Probably as the vortex leaves mid month .

Agree and Bluewave is right , if you said AN temps with AN snow , you can claim victory .

I thought you said that Feb 5 - Feb 22 would be the cold and snowy days a couple of days ago. So now you think it's between Feb 10-15 only? That would be bad news.

Please reaffirm.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Deleted ?LOL

 

 

 

 

Posted 21 January 2016 - 06:20 AM

10,299 posts
Joined December 22, 2011
0 warning points
Overcast
58 °F
Variable @ 6 MPH

IGNORE THE NAM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Carry on . 

 

 

 

You will find this in the Major coastal disco  , it was responded too twice . 

Deleted lol 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I thought you said that Feb 5 - Feb 22 would be the cold and snowy days a couple of days ago. So now you think it's between Feb 10-15 only? That would be bad news.

Please reaffirm.

 

 

The coldest period looks to be inside the 8-15 with however one or more of these systems are going to work .

The cold guidance is not as long and strong as it was 3 days ago .

But it is not terrible .

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted

Yawn...nobody cares. Take it to PM for the love of God. 

I'm thinking a separate Forky/PB thread just for the two of them to continue their whining and fixate solely on each other.  That way anyone who wanted to read all of their bulls hit could do so while the rest of us are spared.   

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

So much for the warmth being transient...temps overperforming again today and mt holly has bumped me to highs of 45 and 48 for the weekend...that would make 7 days above normal not including the 31th

 

The entire first week of Feb was suppose to be a torch, i don't see anything that is surprising about it 

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