Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I have never seen Will do anything but applaud seasonal efforts. Agree there, but when he doesn't like the way things are presented he accuses of hyperbole...instead of just accepting that as those folk's way of presentation. Different strokes for different folks. I still don't understand why he won't lay out a winter forecast with gradable, tangible numbers like we do. Wouldn't it be nice to see what his exact thoughts are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well you are always one of the first to critique and criticize those enthusiasts that put forth an actual winter forecast with numbers, yet never submit one yourself . So it's kind of a Saturday evening QB until you put yourself out there as others do to be judged , right or wrongBad reasoning. Just because I don't give hard numbers on snowfall months in advance doesn't mean I can't critique poor reasoning. I was on board last winter with strongly criticizing the "winters over" and "only nickel and dimes" rhetoric last January because the pattern looked very favorable going forward (ditto in January 2013) Just because I didn't put out numbers didn't mean my critique was invalid. If I was ignorant of long range weather patterns or ignorant of New England winter climate then those would be valid reasons. So if you think I'm incompetent to discuss those things then just say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 He doesn't believe its worth it because snowfall is subject to such a high degree of variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 He doesn't believe its worth it because snowfall is subject to such a high degree of variance.I don't need a specific number..But how about An or BN or a range..Something so we can grade him, like he grades others. He's a great met and we are lucky to have him. But IMO , if you are going to critique someone's forecast , you also need to put your own ideas / numbers out there . But maybe no one else agrees with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'll take a stab at it,anyone is free to correct me, when I was staying in Florida I noticed the low level moisture would tend to come in from the south east that's why you see the rip current statement on that map, meaning there is a strong onshore flow. Meanwhile if a storm system or frontal boundry was approaching from the west in the prevailing jet stream flow, I would see radar returns coming from two different directions. Good stab. Being here for a year now... there are two boundaries that develop on a daily basis. Sea breeze from the W coast and the other E coast. Lift is almost always present. Out of a clear blue sky I've seen towers overshoot in 5 minutes time. ML and to a lesser degree including UL winds prevail from W to E, moisture at the surface is predominately sourced from the S and E, three out four seasons, In reality there only is two seasons Summer and Fall. The State is in perpetual Deep Layer Tropical flow. Spring-time is the rainy season enhanced QPF usually from decaying fronts that wash-out before reaching the C Peninsula. Still learning the nuances many a day I would just throw my hands up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 We have posters throw in the towel every single year in January when December goes bad. It's a timeless phenomenon on the weather forums. Sometimes we end up with a ratter (see 2011-2012)...other times they look really silly and we have a big 2nd half (see last year and 2012-2013 for the coast). I will say for the coastal regions, or maybe east of the CT River, it's been easier to imagine a strong second half given the recent past history. 2013 and 2015 both went gangbusters for the same region in the second half. Deeper interior it does become harder to make up for lost snow in the first half of the season because normals are higher. Not that MPM should punt on January 5th, but the anecdotal confidence isn't the same right now as it would be for someone who got multiple MECS in 2013 and 2015 after the third week of January. Up here I know we will be below normal this season for snowfall, but I'm still going to enjoy it as December was horrific...haha. I'm still 110" away from normal at home, so I can still hope we do 40" per month in Jan/Feb/Mar to get above normal, but everything will have to break completely favorable for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well, I guess it's comforting to know that the brave and the foolhardy (fine line) will be skating and fishing the smaller bodies of water in Franklin Co. this week. I wasn't sure that was even going to happen this year. I'll go chop some holes in the beaver pond tomorrow morning. Maybe we skate thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 already down to 6 at MVY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Well that explains your concern for a slow first half even more. One has to compromise in a marriage as I'm sure you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I will say for the coastal regions, or maybe east of the CT River, it's been easier to imagine a strong second half given the recent past history. 2013 and 2015 both went gangbusters for the same region in the second half. Deeper interior it does become harder to make up for lost snow in the first half of the season because normals are higher. Not that MPM should punt on January 5th, but the anecdotal confidence isn't the same right now as it would be for someone who got multiple MECS in 2013 and 2015 after the third week of January. Up here I know we will be below normal this season for snowfall, but I'm still going to enjoy it as December was horrific...haha. I'm still 110" away from normal at home, so I can still hope we do 40" per month in Jan/Feb/Mar to get above normal, but everything will have to break completely favorable for that. True. All it takes is one gulf stream james bomb for alot of folks down here to reach normal snowfall overnight. And how hot of a hand we've had with them, it's certainly not so far fetched. But that hot hand can go cold soon as well. Where as, up there a 2' storm would only make a dent. also, I could be wrong, it seems like your winters are made of a lot small to medium size events, which stack up quickly. But isn't it harder for you to get a big system? I'm not talking about long duration upslope events over a couple days...thinking more like vday 2007 type stuff. That's the last interior bomb I can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Slow start = CLIMATE CHANGE. Been pondering that one. Late blooming, more extreme. Roosta goes hiding behind "that" curtain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Kevin is just upset Sagamore beach is beating him again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 One has to compromise in a marriage as I'm sure you know... Last time I compromised with the wife was jan 25th 2013, to move from DXR to Charlotte. Two weeks later Nemo happenned. I havent compromised since. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I can't see much there. Here's what I'm referring to - you can see a slight kink to the 500mb height contours (colored) and a weak sfc low well offshore. I see the weak low of shore, but where's the kink you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Lol, me and the wolf bombardING Ryan with met 101 questions. Sorry Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 lol I know huh!! I hate to do that, but I was staring at the picture, and I was trying to see a kink in the contour lines, but either it's so subtle that I'm just to blind to pick up on it, and I know I'm just to inexperienced to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 lol I know huh!! I hate to do that, but I was staring at the picture, and I was trying to see a kink in the contour lines, but either it's so subtle that I'm just to blind to pick up on it, and I know I'm just to inexperienced to see it. It looks to me as though the "kink" is over CO and WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think he is referring to the slight kink near NJ? Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think if you look close around NC you can see the kink in the green colors compared to how they run smoother fur ther sw. I think.lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 9F. Another night in the single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Lol we are all looking at different areas for the kink. I was thinking off of jersey too-to the southeast of jersey. But who knows?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 We need serious help. Steve, where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 LMAO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Dear Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Dear Lord Lol you could help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What a trainwreck. I can't take back these past 20min of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Just wondering: Is now the time to be hopeful that the pattern is/may be/ changing for the better? Or, should I start with the hysteria and hyperbole again? You know, screaming and bawling like women did in those old misogynist horror movies. I kinda wanna stick with Kevin's general negativity, but I'm just not really feeling it. Can someone please help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's over the mid-atlantic...just a subtle s/w trough in the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 9F. Another night in the single digits Wow, had not looked all night but sneaky drop, down to 10.5 here. Dog walk in a few minutes, hat and gloves night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's over the mid-atlantic...just a subtle s/w trough in the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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