PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 If you are using super El Nino as an analog, it isn't really (97-98). What the hell... I'll put one in. Thinking of 82-83 with this. DCA: 23" IAD: 32" BWI: 29" RIC: 24" Tiebreaker: 3.93" I figured he was using 72/73 and 97/98 as analogs. Rodney's a really smart guy though so his forecast is scaring me a little. DCA: 9.4 IAD: 16.3 BWI: 14.2 RIC: 3.3 Tiebreaker: 6.2 (assuming "total precipitation" translates to snow and not any rain) Total precip for the month is rain + the liquid equivalent of any frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA: 11.8"IAD: 20.5"BWI: 16.2"RIC: 7.4"Tiebreaker: 3.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 If you are using super El Nino as an analog, it isn't really (97-98). What the hell... I'll put one in. Thinking of 82-83 with this. DCA: 23" IAD: 32" BWI: 29" RIC: 24" Tiebreaker: 3.93" I understood the reason.,..But it is an enormous outlier...I guess fun for a contest to throw something goofy out there...plus might be positioned to win if it is 4" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I understood the reason.,..But it is an enormous outlier...I guess fun for a contest to throw something goofy out there...plus might be positioned to win if it is 4" or so I don't think its goofy. The fact its happened twice, both in strong El Ninos, and we currently have a very strong El Nino, suggests its quite possible. I don't think we will be that screwed, but I certainly don't *know* that. We have a similar contest in the office. Almost everyone is lower than my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA:17.3 IAD:27.9 BWI:29.7 RIC.13.3 Tiebreaker: 2.73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I don't think its goofy. The fact its happened twice, both in strong El Ninos, and we currently have a very strong El Nino, suggests its quite possible. I don't think we will be that screwed, but I certainly don't *know* that. We have a similar contest in the office. Almost everyone is lower than my forecast. I wouldn't use the words "quite possible". It's possible because it happened. And even in those 2 winters it took quite a bit of luck to get shutout. I'd say it is very unlikely DCA will get <1", though because we are in a super nino the chances of a shutout are certainly better than if we were in a weak or moderate one..still low though..It's hard to get shut out here...even at awful DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I wouldn't use the words "quite possible". It's possible because it happened. And even in those 2 winters it took quite a bit of luck to get shutout. I'd say it is very unlikely DCA will get <1", though because we are in a super nino the chances of a shutout are certainly better than if we were in a weak or moderate one..still low though..It's hard to get shut out here...even at awful DCA This is a bit of an arbitrary time period... but its happened twice in the last 50 years... so 4% chance right out of the gate. Similar ENSO conditions probably double that, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA: 43.8"IAD: 55.9"BWI: 87.9"RIC: 27.7Tiebreaker: 5.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Dca: 6.6 Iad: 14.1 Bwi: 11.8 Ric: 2.2 Tie: 2.80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA: 15.4"IAD: 26.6"BWI: 23.8"RIC: 6.2" Tiebreaker: 4.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 This is a bit of an arbitrary time period... but its happened twice in the last 50 years... so 4% chance right out of the gate. Similar ENSO conditions probably double that, at least. 8% chance of <1" sounds about right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I figured he was using 72/73 and 97/98 as analogs. Rodney's a really smart guy though so his forecast is scaring me a little. With respect to the first half of the latter statement, some of my family members would say that you obviously don't know me that well. But you are correct about the analogs. The three strongest El Ninos have twice been associated with 0.1 inches of snow at DCA, with the third (1982-83) being associated with 27.6 inches there. But the latter was a fluke, with way above average winter temperatures and way below average winter precipitation at DCA. I think that the big unknown is whether there is a causal relationship between extreme El Ninos and warm mid-Atlantic winter temperatures. I believe that there is, but it is a small sample size with a lot of unknowns. However, I'm anticipating an extreme El Nino this winter with well above average Mid-Atlantic temperatures. In any event, I don't think that there is a causal relationship between any of our snow forecasts and what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 my 20" for DCA comes from an average of 16 analogs... 1899-00.....35.6"" 1905-06.....25.7" 1918-19.......3.3" 1940-41.....17.9" 1941-42.....13.6" 1951-52.....10.2" 1957-58.....40.4" 1965-66.....28.4" 1979-80.....20.1" 1982-83.....27.6" 1986-87.....31.1" 1987-88.....25.0" 1991-92.......6.6" 1994-95.....10.1" 2006-07.......9.5" 2014-15.....18.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 We have 29 entries so far. The more the better, so any lurkers or new people are encouraged to jump on board! Feel free to edit your predictions before the deadline, but if you do, please put a note at the end of your post that you edited it. I've already started entering numbers in the spreadsheet, so I don't want to miss it! Clueless, you put 5.25" for RIC so I just rounded it up to 5.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA: 8.9" IAD: 10.1" BWI: 9.4" RIC: 6.5" Tiebreaker: 4.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA: 19.5 IAD: 35.7 BWI: 29.9 RIC: 12.8 Tie: 3.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA : 16.9" IAD : 29.8" BWI : 28.6" RIC : 13.6" Tie : 3.94" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA : 10.2" IAD : 18.6"BWI : 14.8"RIC : 8.8" TB: 3.60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 DCA : 10.2" IAD : 18.6" BWI : 14.8" RIC : 8.8" TB: 3.60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Total precip for the month is rain + the liquid equivalent of any frozen precip. DCA: 9.4 IAD: 16.3 BWI: 14.2 RIC: 3.3 Tiebreaker: 6.2 (assuming "total precipitation" translates to snow and not any rain) Tiebreaker: 3.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 DCA - 18.3" IAD - 34.6" BWI - 23.7" RIC - 7.9" 3.98" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 DCA: 4.4 IAD: 7.5 BWI: 5 RIC: 1.2 Tiebreaker: 2.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Lol. I might change it but that's how I feel right now. If Dec looks to be the type of month that needs a lot of work to get right in JF then the window starts getting pretty small. And we need more than 3-4 weeks of good chances to do well more often than not. The rarity of 3 climo winters in a row is playing on my mind as well... I hope I massively bust low of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 DCA: 9.5 IAD: 17 BWI: 14.5 RIC: 6.5 Tiebreaker: 3.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 DCA - 19.9 IAD - 31.1 BWI - 29.0 RIC - 15.1 Tie: 3.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 DCA: 24.4 IAD: 38.4 BWI: 34.4 RIC: 14.4 TIE: 4.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 DCA: 6.8" IAD: 13.7" BWI: 16.4" Miller b cash in RIC: 3.7" 2.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 DCA: 29.4" IAD: 38.8" BWI: 32.2" RIC: 24.7" Tiebreaker: 4.77" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 DCA: 12.5"IAD: 20.0"BWI: 18.0"RIC: 10.0"Tiebreaker: 2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onceinalifetime2009-10 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 DCA - 5 inches IAD - 12 inches BWI - 7.5 inches RIC - 1.75 inches Tiebreaker - 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.