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TheSnowman

Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5

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I think the inclination is to look at new each model run, especially in this time frame, as zeroing in on what will be the eventual solution, especially when there is unanimity among the model regime.  Dont the odds of reversing field decrease as we approach game time?  Not always, of course, but if we cant figure on the model depictions as becoming increasingly more likely as we approach game time, then how on earth can we even use them 24 hrs or more ahead of time...  ?

 

Models can and have trended away from what we thought was the "real" solution all the time. We've seen it several times this winter in fact. Our red flags still exist, so despite the nudges north we could still end up with 2SM -SN all day that amounts to 1 or 1.5 inches.

 

 

And to be clear, I'm specifically talking about the southern CT counties in Upton's coverage area.

 

They just don't have the confidence beyond the coastal zone splits. I don't know what else to tell you besides that.

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They just don't have the confidence beyond the coastal zone splits. I don't know what else to tell you besides that.

It's all good, I'm not mad lol. Just typing away. Your points obv make a lot of sense. We will see what 0z brings Then I'll watch the CT map grid tomorrow morning and see all the reds and accidents.

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I mean, even if it ticks south at 0z, that would still be a solid advisory snowfall for most in CT.

 

 

That is a clown map. (not sure when we stopped calling them that and started using them as if they were useful)

 

The GFS QPF does support advisory snow there (MAYBE even low end warning), but it is one model run and there's still the caveat that the synoptics don't support the QPF output. 

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Dang, Pete Bouchard is pretty adamant that Boston will not be breaking the snowfall record...

This is almost firepower that we will break the record.

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That is a clown map. (not sure when we stopped calling them that and started using them as if they were useful)

The GFS QPF does support advisory snow there (MAYBE even low end warning), but it is one model run and there's still the caveat that the synoptics don't support the QPF output.

when do we feel better down here then, after 0z holds serve? if it does that is.

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when do we feel better down here then, after 0z holds serve? if it does that is.

 

I'd want to see the NAM come north again, and the shorter terms start picking up on it as they get into range, plus have water vapor/radar support the more robust solutions.

 

You certainly are in a better spot than further north there.

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I'd want to see the NAM come north again, and the shorter terms start picking up on it as they get into range, plus have water vapor/radar support the more robust solutions.

You certainly are in a better spot than further north there.

What is your impression of how radar and vapor look at this very early juncture?

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I'd want to see the NAM come north again, and the shorter terms start picking up on it as they get into range, plus have water vapor/radar support the more robust solutions.

You certainly are in a better spot than further north there.

So how does the WV and radar look so far?

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What is your impression of how radar and vapor look at this very early juncture?

 

 

Not overly impressed yet...but things should start looking a bit more obvious by 8-9pm.

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Large area of 40-50 dbz echoes over northern KY moving NE.

I bet a lot of that is bright banding near the mix boundary.

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Dang, Pete Bouchard is pretty adamant that Boston will not be breaking the snowfall record...

 

You mean, 'at all' or because of this deal -

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Every on air segment he had from 4-530pm, he was adamant this next system wasn't going to break the record...said 95-96 would stay at #1, and said from here on out it doesn't look like there are any other chances

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The GFS and the GEFs match up with my call from a few days ago really well.  Both snowfall axis and magnitude.  But I'm not too impressed with the radar right now.  It's really difficult to project, but to me the trajectory looks a lot better for, say, the southern Poconos than for central portions of SNE.  I think lighter echoes will blossom northward overnight, but it's the heavy stuff that I'm interested in.  I'd be inclined to hedge just south of the 18z guidance, although I don't want to.

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Every on air segment he had from 4-530pm, he was adamant this next system wasn't going to break the record...said 95-96 would stay at #1, and said from here on out it doesn't look like there are any other chances

2nd part is bold given the possibilities for another 4-5 weeks but maybe he'll be correct. Tonight is close but as Will said it could be almost nothing or several inches.

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Every on air segment he had from 4-530pm, he was adamant this next system wasn't going to break the record...said 95-96 would stay at #1, and said from here on out it doesn't look like there are any other chances

The sad part is if we do break it down the road, most people won't remember what he said tonight, so he gets a free pass.

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