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TheSnowman

Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5

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Nam says Boston waits. Barely if any measurable along the pike and nothing north.

HRRR wasn't on crack then, that's all I need to know. Should have stuck to my gut and not backed down over the 18z RGEM/GFS.

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By the time you get your wish, it will prob. be elevation season

I'll take my chances.

At least then I have a chance....and it's exciting.

This just blows dead rats....just knowing you have absolutely zero chance, as the pack just rots.

Time and time again.

 

I usually do ok in late season elevation events, anyway.

 

No matter how beautiful a winter is, they always have a zit...aka these past few weeks.

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Nam says Boston waits. Barely if any measurable along the pike and nothing north.

Looks more juiced and more north than 18z to me.

Sharper cutoff to the north I guess, but it's juicier just to the SE of boston.

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HRRR wasn't on crack then, that's all I need to know. Should have stuck to my gut and not backed down over the 18z RGEM/GFS.

I think backing down based in the nam and HRR is not founded in good forecasting. Nam hasn't had the same solution in several runs. That said, I really haven't felt this one. We'll get the record and by a large margin IMHO but not this week most likely. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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Looks more juiced and more north than 18z to me.

Sharper cutoff to the north I guess, but it's juicier just to the SE of boston.

Maybe along the south coast but it's 30 miles south on the northern edge.

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I think backing down based in the nam and HRR is not founded in good forecasting. Nam hasn't had the same solution in several runs. That said, I really haven't felt this one. We'll get the record and by a large margin IMHO but not this week most likely. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I'm not sure why you keep tormenting yourself trying to decipher between the .001" and .005" precip contour on these various $hitty short term models.

Just walk the dog, look at RAD, upstream obs and hope for the best...that or bed.

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Maybe along the south coast but it's 30 miles south on the northern edge.

If you take into account what Will and others said earlier, then yea you're right I'd be a bit worried along the northern periphery.

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I'm not sure why you keep tormenting yourself trying to decipher between the .001" and .005" precip contour on these various $hitty short term models.

Just walk the dog, look at RAD, upstream obs and hope for the best...that or bed.

Here is the order:

1. Dog

2. Rgem

3. Bed

4. Hopefully well enough to work tomorrow....could not today.

Something will come out of nowhere this month but until then, I'm fine with slow truncation of the piles....snow that it.

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At least to me, it does not look like the radar returns out west are gaining much of any latitude.  Don't know if there is a mechanism to push them north, or not.

Radar will start to blossom nicely between 3z and 6z. Mid level winds backing with approaching s/w and low level jet

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I think backing down based in the nam and HRR is not founded in good forecasting. Nam hasn't had the same solution in several runs. That said, I really haven't felt this one. We'll get the record and by a large margin IMHO but not this week most likely. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I just have a feelin' that you get it in April with a heavy early morning dump.

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No matter how beautiful a winter is, they always have a zit...aka these past few weeks.

 

…and November, December, the first three weeks of January. Nuclear dose of Clearasil for a few weeks there though. 

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