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TheSnowman

Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5

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Well off to bed...with caution flags still at full mast for BOS-ORH and probably down to at least N CT/N RI for >2"...Ginxy over to GHG and southward is probably good for advisory snows.

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Can anyone talk about the HRRR? I'm seeing some good things on twitter but would love to hear the thoughts on here.

Doesn't look very good to me, it's basically a complete whiff north of the MA/CT border and a few inches south of there.

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This was close to a much bigger event.  Not a would up system, but a great moisture fetch.  Obs from the Ohio Valley are impressive.  The height field to our north was really suppressive.  And we still almost managed to push back against it.

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yeah and i havent seen a long duration set up with this kind of potential in a dogs age, this is a scenario i would draw up in my basement just 100 miles further north with a slightly bettet high placement to get rid of any westerly component........god i hope this the last south coast special i have to watch from the outside looking in for years

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That is a clown map. (not sure when we stopped calling them that and started using them as if they were useful)

 

The GFS QPF does support advisory snow there (MAYBE even low end warning), but it is one model run and there's still the caveat that the synoptics don't support the QPF output. 

 

It's amazing how some clean graphics make it seem more realistic.

 

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