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Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5


TheSnowman

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As of now this looks like a south coast special to me given that the trend this winter in the mid-short range has been SE and weaker and the only model supporting a SNE wide moderate+ event is the NAM which has been ticking SE it's last several runs and can't be trusted in a situation like this when it's an outlier. Also think there will be a fairly sharp cutoff with this as the front doesn't seem to really move once it's established and the precip comes in and there's a decent amount of QPF with this to the south of that boundary. Worth keeping an eye on though because it wouldn't take a major change to make it a more interesting scenario for a lot more people.

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As of now this looks like a south coast special to me given that the trend this winter in the mid-short range has been SE and weaker and the only model supporting a SNE wide moderate+ event is the NAM which has been ticking SE it's last several runs and can't be trusted in a situation like this when it's an outlier. Worth keeping an eye on though because it wouldn't take a major change to make it a more interesting scenario for a lot more people.

I said last night, the NAM will tic se for the rest of eternity. 

This has happened with every event ever since I was told we were entering a pattern that favored cne/nne.

 

Can't buy a R/S line with a classic coastal front.

Either cranberry bogs jack, or nada.

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On the edge of useful range, but the RGEM looks really good at 48...probably NAMish type solution.

 

 

But this whole thing is going to get compressed as it tries to move into our area, so the south shore is probably the best spot. Even in a NAM solution it is the best spot. Though the south coast and those regions will almost certainly be fighting BL issues for the first part of the anafront event. So more QPF, but some of that will be "wasted" on marginal BL.

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On the edge of useful range, but the RGEM looks really good at 48...probably NAMish type solution.

 

 

But this whole thing is going to get compressed as it tries to move into our area, so the south shore is probably the best spot. Even in a NAM solution it is the best spot. Though the south coast and those regions will almost certainly be fighting BL issues for the first part of the anafront event. So more QPF, but some of that will be "wasted" on marginal BL.

 I don't believe it.

No way. (Sarcasm deeper than a Weymouth drift).

 

Man, 3 week winter here, as epic as it was.

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I said last night, the NAM will tic se for the rest of eternity. 

This has happened with every event ever since I was told we were entering a pattern that favored cne/nne.

 

Can't buy a R/S line with a classic coastal front.

Either cranberry bogs jack, or nada.

you and me both

in a relative sense we have been quite fooked this last 6 weeks - but only in a relative sense.  I do have somewhere norht of 20 inches on the ground.

I'm actuallly starting to think the winter will just fade away.  Happy for it because we are building a house in the spring and I want clear thawed ground.

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you and me both

in a relative sense we have been quite fooked this last 6 weeks - but only in a relative sense.  I do have somewhere norht of 20 inches on the ground.

I'm actuallly starting to think the winter will just fade away.  Happy for it because we are building a house in the spring and I want clear thawed ground.

 Always thought that.

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this event buckles further north.  The height field shows some weakness.  We need this one out in the western Berks and ENY.  If anything breaks the seasonal trend, this one is it.  It's been 4 weeks since we had a 6" event.  I don't think ALB has had a 12" storm this season. Not unusual except in a season with record snow depth all around.

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On the edge of useful range, but the RGEM looks really good at 48...probably NAMish type solution.

 

 

But this whole thing is going to get compressed as it tries to move into our area, so the south shore is probably the best spot. Even in a NAM solution it is the best spot. Though the south coast and those regions will almost certainly be fighting BL issues for the first part of the anafront event. So more QPF, but some of that will be "wasted" on marginal BL.

Climo is going to strike the south coast.  Rain.  It's gotta happen to get snow further inland.  And I'm going with it.

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Funny, a lot of you guys up over 100 inches are now having problems getting into the Meat of these last few systems.  And alot of areas that couldn't buy the Big Big numbers that made the Epic stretch so amazing out east, are now picking up  6 and 8 inches at a clip.  Which won't bring us up to your seasonal numbers of course, but are keeping this very exciting, and prolonging the Deep Deep winter feel with a deep deep snowpack.  

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this event buckles further north.  The height field shows some weakness.  We need this one out in the western Berks and ENY.  If anything breaks the seasonal trend, this one is it.  It's been 4 weeks since we had a 6" event.  I don't think ALB has had a 12" storm this season. Not unusual except in a season with record snow depth all around.

 

 

I'd want to see just a bit more of that southwest energy get absorbed into the main trough to see the more robust scenario...I do agree that there is some room for it. Plenty of ensemble members have been showing much larger hits.

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I'd want to see just a bit more of that southwest energy get absorbed into the main trough to see the more robust scenario...I do agree that there is some room for it. Plenty of ensemble members have been showing much larger hits.

I agree with your first sentence.  I'm not seeing what I want to see... yet.  Even last night's NAM wasn't there.

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Ukie looks like a warning event for the pike region to interior RI/CT...south coast is getting BL issues but probably also get good snows....here is Ukie 12h precip at 72 hours and it isn't over yet (and there's actually about a tenth prior to this frame too):

 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this event buckles further north.  The height field shows some weakness.  We need this one out in the western Berks and ENY.  If anything breaks the seasonal trend, this one is it.  It's been 4 weeks since we had a 6" event.  I don't think ALB has had a 12" storm this season. Not unusual except in a season with record snow depth all around.

 

I hope you're right. The only overachiever we've had here this season was 11/26 with 12.5" and that was a classic anafrontal storm. While it's unlikely such an event would unfold again, I'm hoping for a few inches anyway. Not a lot of time with this though.

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Ukie looks like a warning event for the pike region to interior RI/CT...south coast is getting BL issues but probably also get good snows....here is Ukie 12h precip at 72 hours and it isn't over yet (and there's actually about a tenth prior to this frame too):

 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

I would expect the Precip gradient to be more SW- NE oriented, no? 

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this event buckles further north.  The height field shows some weakness.  We need this one out in the western Berks and ENY.  If anything breaks the seasonal trend, this one is it.  It's been 4 weeks since we had a 6" event.  I don't think ALB has had a 12" storm this season. Not unusual except in a season with record snow depth all around.

Wow....bad luck out there. 

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