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Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5


TheSnowman

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I would be wary of rain if I were in SE Mass.  Maybe even along the eastern coastal sections.  Guidance doesn't really show it yet.  But if and when the models catch on to the southern stream wave, they are going to start showing WAA where they currently show CAA.  That could be trouble with a marginal in-situ airmass.  Even in this amplified scenario, I think everyone pounds eventually.

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 Exactly what I have been saying....verbatim.

 

Hey, we'll see.....I get 10" of more, I'll pay Kev's bill at the next GTG.

 

I am all tunnel vision right now; I want that record for BOS quite badly.

 

If I must somehow appease the reverend to get it, so be it. But I am near certain it does not work in that way.

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This run has more identifiable cyclenetic features... it's not just an ANA event on this run; it's an open wave low, and it is toting a lot of PWAT over the leading edge of the arctic doom do to having its origin near the Arklotex

Exactly.  If correct, it changes the expectation parameters.

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This run has more identifiable cyclenetic features... it's not just an ANA event on this run; it's an open wave low, and it is toting a lot of PWAT over the leading edge of the arctic doom do to having its origin near the Arklotex

 

The arctic doom sounds very ominous, and yet, I welcome its advances.

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If this comes, it pounds.  Stream of moisture with this one.  None of this -SN through dim sun that we've been getting out here for a month.  If that southern stream wave can buckle the field a little bit, this things shoots much further north.  Won't take much for baro leaf formation and blossoming precip.  Everything is going to compress south in the end... but hopefully not after a surging precip field well into CNE.

This NAM run is what I envisioned earlier today.  We've seen this scenario many times before.  Going back more than a decade, I always remember the ETA/NAM leading the trends on these waves that develop along a frontal boundary.  Of course all the models have changed so much, it's probably just a romantic idea that the NAM would lead again here.  But I still believe it is correctly indicating a trend.

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The arctic doom sounds very ominous, and yet, I welcome its advances.

 

No confidence from me just yet. Could still be a NAM red-herring... Not much support. 

 

Still, cannot rule it out as like I said, the amount of lagging mid level jet dynamics is in question do to sampling/origin up over the southwest quadrant of the Arctic circle. 

 

We'll see.  But it sure is entertaining.  

 

Perhaps my dream to see the seasonal snow total end within an inch shy of the record gets crushed and shattered before my very eyes...

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*/ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...

1) HIGHLIGHTS...

- RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT

- PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY?

- GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST

2) OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT

WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED

WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A

MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE

FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE.

3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE...

GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS

FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE

FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS.

SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING

DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A

PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD

OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN

ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER-

RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND

NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE

OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT.

LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE

QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY-

COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START

OFF AS SNOW.

A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE

S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7

BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE

0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT.

SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF

THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE.

4) SNOWFALL...

SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE

DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS

WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE

WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH

AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.

SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL

NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

*/ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...

WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE

ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU

THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG

WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO

END ANY TIME SOON.

 
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No confidence from me just yet. Could still be a NAM red-herring... Not much support. 

 

Still, cannot rule it out as like I said, the amount of lagging mid level jet dynamics is in question do to sampling/origin up over the southwest quadrant of the Arctic circle. 

 

We'll see.  But it sure is entertaining.  

 

Perhaps my dream to see the seasonal snow total end within an inch shy of the record gets crushed and shattered before my very eyes...

 

Why must you and your mighty hobbit feet seek to trample my dreams?

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Significant improvements on the NAM.  Very much in line with what I was looking for.

Gotta continue to be cautious, because this solution is within the envelope of previous cycle ensemble spread... so it could be an outlier.  But I think this is legit.  The NAM leads in this kind of setup.  

lol

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