WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yep. It's all tied together. I figured that...Thank You for the answer. Being the Euro's known bias is to drag it's heels in the Southwest almost all the time, do you feel this is it playing into it's bias?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I figured that...Thank You for the answer. Being the Euro's known bias is to drag it's heels in the Southwest almost all the time, do you feel this is it playing into it's bias?? I don't think it has the bias it once had. That said, it doesn't mean the 12z solution is 100% correct either. I hate these setups because small nuances have such a big outcome in what we see up our way. Usually it's best to proceed with caution until guidance really hits it hard. Might need another couple of runs to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think the Euro is plausible. Not too far off from the GFS, which also looks reasonable. The northern stream really compresses the height field. I just think both solutions will verify too far south with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ens are juicy, Lucy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ens are juicy, Lucy Moreso than that OP? I thought those came out later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Moreso than that OP? I thought those came out later? He's probably talking about the juiced GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Moreso than that OP? I thought those came out later?They come out 3:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 3 weeks ago this was a foot plus ez , now it will prob be 2-4 se sne . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 3 weeks ago this was a foot plus ez , now it will prob be 2-4 se sne . I don't know about the former, but agree with the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'd gladly take the 2-3 front end and 1-3 back end to at least get us to the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Funny everything ticks up with big snows and the Euro goes the opposite direction with advisory stuff. Inclined to believe the Euro ens will be much more juiced The Euro has sucked all winter, the fact it agrees with the GFS probably means its a toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 He's probably talking about the juiced GEFS.and Canucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The Euro has sucked all winter, the fact it agrees with the GFS probably means its a toss It's been too amped most of the winter....although it did correct about 70 mi nw at one point before this past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's been too amped most of the winter....although it did correct about 70 mi nw at one point before this past event. Its been too amped on phased systems or coastals but its been too flat on many of the other systems like the Clippers and also dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Its been too amped on phased systems or coastals but its been too flat on many of the other systems like the Clippers and also dry. But it got Sandy right, so there's always that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 But it got Sandy right, so there's always that. I think that was before it was upgraded again, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Its been too amped on phased systems or coastals but its been too flat on many of the other systems like the Clippers and also dry. It stated as a cutter with the last system, then went out to sea, then ripped back nw like 70 mi to a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think that was before it was upgraded again, but I could be wrong. It was, but it performed very well last winter after an upgrade and it actually started this winter off strong...dominating other guidance in the Thanksgiving event...it then got one of those VT paste jobs right when other guidance was well east....after that though, it seemed to unravel starting with the blizzard and the wheels came off during February. It will be back I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It was, but it performed very well last winter after an upgrade and it actually started this winter off strong...dominating other guidance in the Thanksgiving event...it then got one of those VT paste jobs right when other guidance was well east....after that though, it seemed to unravel starting with the blizzard and the wheels came off during February. It will be back I'm sure. Wouldn't be surprised if it starts dominating again here once the -EPO relaxes. No evidence, just a feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro ensembles are a bit more bullish than the OP run. Looks like it has solid advisory for all of SNE and not just southern areas. South coast might be warning criteria but BL issues might be a problem the first 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro ensembles are a bit more bullish than the OP run. Looks like it has solid advisory for all of SNE and not just southern areas. South coast might be warning criteria but BL issues might be a problem the first 6-8 hours. Good news. Yeah it's pretty much a given that we'll be fighting the BL in the early stages, but it will also last a bit longer down here. How far north does the meaningful precip get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Good news. Yeah it's pretty much a given that we'll be fighting the BL in the early stages, but it will also last a bit longer down here. How far north does the meaningful precip get? Depends on what you defined as meaningful...it gets 0.1" near CON...0.2" up to around the S NH/ S VT borders. 0.3" BOS-ORH-BAF Hopefully it is a sign that this will trend more robust as we get closer. A more robust solution should benefit everyone I think...you'll rain longer on the front, but will get destroyed when it flips over...maybe flash freeze. Hopefully the more dynamic solutions can start to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro ensembles are a bit more bullish than the OP run. Looks like it has solid advisory for all of SNE and not just southern areas. South coast might be warning criteria but BL issues might be a problem the first 6-8 hours. AWT. Ukie was on the right path we think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 AWT. Ukie was on the right path we think AWT what? 1-3" for me and 2-4" for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 AWT what? 1-3" for me and 2-4" for you? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Can someone tell me please, what does AWT stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Can someone tell me please, what does AWT stand for?"As we thought" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Thank You so much. Ive been driving myself nuts lately trying to figure it out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 18z NAM is a touch better with the southern wave in N. Mexico through 36hrs. Praying it translates. A hair faster/more neutrally tilted with this feature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What? You responded to a post regarding the 12z EURO, which reflects what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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