eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If this comes, it pounds. Stream of moisture with this one. None of this -SN through dim sun that we've been getting out here for a month. If that southern stream wave can buckle the field a little bit, this things shoots much further north. Won't take much for baro leaf formation and blossoming precip. Everything is going to compress south in the end... but hopefully not after a surging precip field well into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This will be the historic event in that sets the new seasonal record for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If this comes, it pounds. Stream of moisture with this one. None of this -SN through dim sun that we've been getting out here for a month. If that southern stream wave can buckle the field a little bit, this things shoots much further north. Won't take much for baro leaf formation and blossoming precip. Everything is going to compress south in the end... but hopefully not after a surging precip field well into CNE. Sounds like you are on the edge. Step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Sounds like you are on the edge. Step back. when eduggs is excited I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I do agree if we can get this moisture far enough NW, it's gonna be pretty nice. You have warm moist air riding steeply over the frontal boundary onto the cold side. That's going to be good lift and a lot of warm moist air forced into a region that offers a lot of resistance. There will be frontogenesis fetishes flying around if this is robust enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 when eduggs is excited I'm excited. I think you are probably doing much better than him as well. It's the nature of the game...they got smoked in 2003 relatively speaking. Some years are better than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would this start as rain and flip to snow for the interior or wire to wire snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would this start as rain and flip to snow for the interior or wire to wire snow? Close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 expecting a good douse of rain here first, then snow...but it will also last longer down here so I could see totals being pretty evenly distributed from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wow GEFS look good too. Woah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Close call. Comes in Wed evening or after the witching hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would this start as rain and flip to snow for the interior or wire to wire snow? Right now my gut says any rain at the start would be brief for the interior...I'd think you guys flip fairly quickly especially with elevation. Valley and shoreline will have to wait a little longer for a flip. But still a good bit of time, I'm sure that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 A couple of GEFs members really hammer internior EPA up through SNE. Rain to Snow for southern areas. Subtle differences at H5 beginning in the South make the difference. Not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Comes in Wed evening or after the witching hour? I think if it's delayed somewhat, we would have time for the atmosphere to cool more before the onset of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Right now my gut says any rain at the start would be brief for the interior...I'd think you guys flip fairly quickly especially with elevation. Valley and shoreline will have to wait a little longer for a flip. But still a good bit of time, I'm sure that will change. I pimped yo blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think you are probably doing much better than him as well. It's the nature of the game...they got smoked in 2003 relatively speaking. Some years are better than others. yup, 70" and counting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Comes in faster and leaves faster on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think if it's delayed somewhat, we would have time for the atmosphere to cool more before the onset of precip. I think the surface will be slow to cool in the lower elevations. I think elevation will help with this, especially early on. Rain could hang on longer than expected... or an extended period of 35 and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like 1-3/2-4 on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Energy left behind more on this run (negative), but a bit sharper with the nrn stream trough (positive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I pimped yo blog I saw...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Gets pretty cold quick on the euro...won't need elevation verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Isn't one of the Euros biases to leave too much energy back in the Southwest? Could this be it doing that again? Just wondering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 We're gonna want that southern stream energy to be involved more if we are aiming for a warning event...northern stream will only minorly compensate for it to a point. It's too bad that the Euro left a bit more energy behind because earlier in the run, the baroclinic axis was set up nicely west to really give this thing an excellent chance to be a larger event. We'll see if we can trend that extra energy out of the SW on future runs...but the clock is ticking fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Can anyone with a good feel offer up an idea of start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like 1-3/2-4 on the Euro. Is that primarily for SNE? I'm scrounging for more nickels and dimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You really want to see the 850 temp march of cold temps really slow near SNE. That's a sign of good frontogenesis. This run kind of keeps it marching steadily SE after briefly slowing near hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would the inclusion of more SW energy slow the 850 temp march you speak of, Down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would the inclusion of more SW energy slow the 850 temp march you speak of, Down? Yep. It's all tied together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Funny everything ticks up with big snows and the Euro goes the opposite direction with advisory stuff. Inclined to believe the Euro ens will be much more juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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