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Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5


TheSnowman

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Just looking at guidance, been away most of day

 

People asked about Bufkit numbers from 18z

 

For KBOS

 

18zNAM 1.2" / 0.14 qpf, all between 7z-12z

(12z had like 0.1")

 

18zGFS 4.7" / 0.40 qpf, all between 6z-15z

Not sure I'm feeling this.

Been sick all day and feel naso great now. Time to go up and use the grogger when I hear a certain name....maybe that will bring her north.

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The GEFS look suspiciously north and wet.  A few members spread plowable snow all the way to NW MA with heavy snow south of the CT/MA border.  I think these might already be too far north in IN and OH.  I wonder if and how they were updated when the new GFS came online.

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Not sure I'm feeling this.

Been sick all day and feel naso great now. Time to go up and use the grogger when I hear a certain name....maybe that will bring her north.

 

Yeah I'm not sure.

 

Negative column:

• NWS Box really conservative and went even more meh... they have had a great season, they must be seeing something though the AFD rationale was kind of confusing

• Euro still kind of meh, maybe 2" in Boston

• Radar right now not the most exciting

• Logan 40/29F... we don't want to waste qpf on cooling

 

Positive column:

• 18z RGEM trended significantly better, maybe 3-4" in Boston

• 18z NAM/GFS trended significantly better, GFS ~4" in Boston

• 12z UK significantly better, maybe 2" in Boston

 

Good reasons to argue either way.

 

Bottom line, we watch radar trends and 0z guidance.

 

(and been sick as well x 3 days, hope you feel better!)

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Yeah I'm not sure.

 

Negative column:

• NWS Box really conservative and went even more meh... they have had a great season, they must be seeing something though the AFD rationale was kind of confusing

• Euro still kind of meh, maybe 2" in Boston

• Radar right now not the most exciting

• Logan 40/29F... we don't want to waste qpf on cooling

 

Positive column:

• 18z RGEM trended significantly better, maybe 3-4" in Boston

• 18z NAM/GFS trended significantly better, GFS ~4" in Boston

• 12z UK significantly better, maybe 2" in Boston

 

Good reasons to argue either way.

 

Bottom line, we watch radar trends and 0z guidance.

 

(and been sick as well x 3 days, hope you feel better!)

You as well get better! Been a burn at both ends winter and we pay

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Wow.  I haven't seen Box updates since this morning. Looks like this thing is a gonner for the most part.  Winter storm watches gone poof! except for warnings on the islands. Boston left hanging with a 2nd place historical winter.

 

Maybe an inch or so here to refresh the grime, and then on to Spring. 

 

Quite honestly, after today's news I'm pretty much changing out of winter mode.

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The GEFS look suspiciously north and wet.  A few members spread plowable snow all the way to NW MA with heavy snow south of the CT/MA border.  I think these might already be too far north in IN and OH.  I wonder if and how they were updated when the new GFS came online.

Down to 35.9/28

Cooling pretty quickly...what ever I get should be snow.

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Wow.  I haven't seen Box updates since this morning. Looks like this thing is a gonner for the most part.  Winter storm watches gone poof! except for warnings on the islands.

 

Maybe an inch or so here to refresh the grime, and then on to Spring. 

 

Quite honestly, after today's news I'm pretty much changing out of winter mode.

Take a look at the 18z GFS/RGEM and you might change your tune re the first part of your post.

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The GEFS look suspiciously north and wet. A few members spread plowable snow all the way to NW MA with heavy snow south of the CT/MA border. I think these might already be too far north in IN and OH. I wonder if and how they were updated when the new GFS came online.

We have seen the trends and a good 4-6 at the Pike is very likely. But the pike is a long stretch. We talkin about western mass or near boston. Jesus.
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IMO the slow temp drop argues that the farther north solutions have more merit. If the cold air was already in and established that would tend to eat the precip on northern periphery. I think the temps not cooling as quickly as forecast is a good thing

Seems like maybe the slow temp drop lends some truth to BOX's opinion that there would be some qpf wasted as rain/sleet...especially near the coast.

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Yeah I'm not sure.

 

Negative column:

• NWS Box really conservative and went even more meh... they have had a great season, they must be seeing something though the AFD rationale was kind of confusing

• Euro still kind of meh, maybe 2" in Boston

• Radar right now not the most exciting

• Logan 40/29F... we don't want to waste qpf on cooling

 

Positive column:

• 18z RGEM trended significantly better, maybe 3-4" in Boston

• 18z NAM/GFS trended significantly better, GFS ~4" in Boston

• 12z UK significantly better, maybe 2" in Boston

 

Good reasons to argue either way.

 

Bottom line, we watch radar trends and 0z guidance.

 

(and been sick as well x 3 days, hope you feel better!)

nice summary

 

One point to add (In negative) is surface NNW winds and I think Ryan mentioned some dry air in the column

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