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TheSnowman

Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5

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What in GOD's name is the NWS doing? My PNC says about 0.5", and it's a massive 1-2, when now All models are going way North agreeing on about 3"-5" for me. There's Proof in their insanity, because their maximum map is so much larger than what they are forecasting. Not even an Advisory???? Kevin - Nice Prediction. Warning to the Pike = Not ECEN a Hazardous Weather Outlook to the Pike. attachicon.gifimage.jpg

It's a probablistic tool.

That is the max amount that they deem fathomable at a given location considering the current pantheon of guidance.

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Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM.

I tried responding and it wouldn't let me lol

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Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM.

That's a dangerous combo to ride. hope they're clenching their cheeks really tight.

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I tried responding and it wouldn't let me lol

They have to follow you to be able to respond, I tried as well. Guess they sent that to everyone who called them out.

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Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM.

Personally, I'd ride the Euro but who am I but a lowly man

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Personally, I'd ride the Euro but who am I but a lowly man

 

We knows nothing!

 

... SREF's tho? Honestly.

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Not as robust as Euro.  Let's just say that.

 

I know but... that plus 12z NAM as guidance of choice?

 

I guess it's good the 18z NAM came north a bit then...

 

As they say in my homelands: da fuq?

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What in GOD's name is the NWS doing? My PNC says about 0.5", and it's a massive 1-2, when now All models are going way North agreeing on about 3"-5" for me. There's Proof in their insanity, because their maximum map is so much larger than what they are forecasting. Not even an Advisory???? Kevin - Nice Prediction. Warning to the Pike = Not ECEN a Hazardous Weather Outlook to the Pike. attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

And your min map gives you 0.

 

That max map will fail to occur 9 out of 10 times.

 

In reality, a warning should be issued about every time that min map shows 5-6 inches. That would be 90% confidence of occurrence.

 

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I know but... that plus 12z NAM as guidance of choice?

 

I guess it's good the 18z NAM came north a bit then...

 

As they say in my homelands: da fuq?

Yes, it's N, no too far off from the Euro, maybe a touch drier.

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As expected based on their forecast, WWA on the S coast and that's it.

 

All of these last few events have been a rollercoaster ride, ultimately ending in mediocrity.  There have been quite a few though, hence the 4 foot tall piles a stones throw from the ocean here.

 

I think this is where the south coast gets off the winter ride.  Would like enough to cross country ski on the roads, looking very doubtful.  Hopefully they bust low and don't adequately plough, but they've been pretty much dead on here.

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36.7 . Should start as snow

 

I would say you're right on the edge. Wet bulb 0s around 950 are hanging out in your neighborhood. Any farther south doesn't look all that awesome as things currently stand, until after 00z.

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I know but... that plus 12z NAM as guidance of choice?

 

I guess it's good the 18z NAM came north a bit then...

 

As they say in my homelands: da fuq?

 

I'm with you...da fuq?

 

Sometimes, modelology is important as well. Like, knowing that going with a NAM/SREF combo when they are on their own compared to all other global guidance is a pretty safe bet to lose every single time.

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Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM.

 

Can you post their message verbatim

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I'm with you...da fuq?

 

Sometimes, modelology is important as well. Like, knowing that going with a NAM/SREF combo when they are on their own compared to all other global guidance is a pretty safe bet to lose every single time.

 

Ah but that is exactly what indicates we're not meteorologists.

 

The NWS surely has some reason or rationale for preferring the camp they do... at least they usually do.

 

I ain't know. Da fuq, I says!

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Upton with nothing for us, not even a WWA.

 

 

 

CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-051000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
403 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

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I would say you're right on the edge. Wet bulb 0s around 950 are hanging out in your neighborhood. Any farther south doesn't look all that awesome as things currently stand, until after 00z.

Dew is 30..Little bit of room to wet bulb..and thinking elevation will help too

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Upton with nothing for us, not even a WWA.

I wouldn't worry, there coverage of zones make no sense sometimes. for instance, Peekskill, NY is under a WWA but I'm not? It's a joke. Their coloring looks like a Pre school project.

Wilton, ct is nothing but you go west over the border into pound ridge, NY and you have a WWA.

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Can you post their message verbatim

Our tweet to them: SCW ‏@SouthernCTWX  2h

@NWSBoston Riding the NAM on new map? Only guidance that really supports only 1-2" that far south.

 

Their response:

New 15z SREF snow probs support the 12z NAM & ARW. 70% of 4" Islands decreasing to 45% at PVD. Vry progressive & ptype issues

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I wouldn't worry, there coverage of zones make no sense sometimes. for instance, Peekskill, NY is under a WWA but I'm not? It's a joke. Their coloring looks like a Pre school project.

Wilton, ct is nothing but you go west over the border into pound ridge, NY and you have a WWA.

 

It just seems strange considering a Watch was issued yesterday and considering the trends today.

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