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TheSnowman

Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5

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Me personally here: I wouldn't have 80% confidence if I'm banking on a 25 mile shift north to verify warnings.

 

And even if models did shift another 25 mi north, I'm not sure I'd want to issue warnings anyway....too nervous about that NNW flow at the surface acting to dry out the lower levels. 0.50" of QPF and NNW sfc flow isn't exactly screaming warning....

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And even if models did shift another 25 mi north, I'm not sure I'd want to issue warnings anyway....too nervous about that NNW flow at the surface acting to dry out the lower levels. 0.50" of QPF and NNW sfc flow isn't exactly screaming warning....

 

Ratios! Sun angle! Fridusia!

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Me personally here: I wouldn't have 80% confidence if I'm banking on a 25 mile shift north to verify warnings.

 

Just to be clear, its 80% for a warning, 50% for a watch, and 25% for an outlook? That's what I always believed it was.

 

And the lead time for a watch, I've seen anything from 24-48 hours, to up to 54 hours, to 72 hours (according to NWS binghampton) They say watches can go up 24-72 hours lead time.

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Agree. My only concern is this is rush hour tomorrow along the south coast. While that doesn't factor in to meeting warning criteria, I think advisories are generally brushed aside by the public. 95 and Merritt in CT will be a complete cluster screwjob tomorrow morning.

 

 

Fun times ahead. Merritt is always a fun ride in the snow. 95 is generally warmer with more cars, more plows, closer to the water, its usually not as bad. But the Merritt in the hilly terrain pfffft it sucks.

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Just to be clear, its 80% for a warning, 50% for a watch, and 25% for an outlook? That's what I always believed it was.

 

And the lead time for a watch, I've seen anything from 24-48 hours, to up to 54 hours, to 72 hours (according to NWS binghampton) They say watches can go up 24-72 hours lead time.

 

 

If the model agreement is really strong and the synoptics are favorable, that's when you normally see watches at 60-72 hours out...makes sense because that is one of the few situations you can be as high as 50/50 that warning snows will fall that far out.

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The Ghost of Grady Sizemore!

:weenie:!

 

Slightly off topic, but I did get to touch him last spring.

 

Well, technically he touched me.

 

In fact, that may be what made the magic of this winter possible. Think about it. Think about that blessing.

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The Day Kevin will post a negative snow post is the day snow melts instantly at 32* lol.

Am I weird for being more excited about the fact that this will be Measurable Snow Event #17 in 41 Days than almost any other amazing stat I'm breaking?

17 in 41 is freaking Insanity.

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The Day Kevin will post a negative snow post is the day snow melts instantly at 32* lol.

Am I weird for being more excited about the fact that this will be Measurable Snow Event #17 in 41 Days than almost any other amazing stat I'm breaking?

17 in 41 is freaking Insanity.

You ought to get this post aired on NECN

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Huh?

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1235 PM UPDATE...

PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ALONG S COAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY SAGGING S THROUGH
REGION. SOME BREAKS OR THINNING IN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO 30S AND LOWER 40S AS OF MIDDAY...AND
READINGS MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

EARLY THOUGHTS FOR NEXT UPDATE...
12Z MODELS HAVE NUDGED THINGS A BIT FARTHER S FROM EARLIER RUNS...
ESPECIALLY HIGH-RES MODELS WHICH SHOW SHARP CUTOFF TO NORTHERN
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH HAS TO BE TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION. INITIAL PLAN IS TO CUT BACK ON SNOWFALL TOTALS
ALONG AND N OF MASS PIKE...AND NUDGE AMOUNTS DOWN A TAD FARTHER TO
S. WILL MAKE FINAL DECISION ON TOTALS/HEADLINES AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.


THERE ARE SEVERAL RED FLAGS TO CONSIDER AGAINST GOING WITH OVERLY
HIGH AMOUNTS INCLUDING BEING ABLE TO OVERCOME INITIALLY WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /WHICH AFFECTS PRECIP TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS/...CONTINUED SOUTHWARD NUDGE ON MODELS AND FACT
THAT BEST LIFT IN MAX SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS LIMITED TO LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THU MORNING NEAR S COAST. FACT THAT HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL N OF MASS PIKE MAKES SENSE GIVEN WE EXPECT
A SHARP GRADIENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM.

 

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What is box looking at?  Most of the 12z suite was north...No?

 

 

Eh, north with the stuff tonight and south with the stuff tomorrow...I kind of found the trends to be a wash...but not sure I'd say the whole thing shifted south.

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From their twitter they seem to be leaning towards a lot of qpf being lost to rain/sleet keeping totals down as a result.

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Just to be clear, its 80% for a warning, 50% for a watch, and 25% for an outlook? That's what I always believed it was.

 

And the lead time for a watch, I've seen anything from 24-48 hours, to up to 54 hours, to 72 hours (according to NWS binghampton) They say watches can go up 24-72 hours lead time.

 

80/50/30%

 

And a watch can be valid anywhere between 12 hour and 96 hours. We aren't required to forecast QPF/snowfall/ice beyond 72 hours so it would be hard to issue a watch if you don't know the potential snow/ice, but like Will said if confidence is high it can be done. Inside 12 hours it's sh!t or get off the pot time.

 

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Based on the new box storm total map, it was bullish to think that even the immediate coast would get a warning.  

 

They know what they're doing, and I'm more inclined to think they are right, than my ignorant weenie optimism, but the explanation in the discussion would have made more sense last night, so its a bit confusing.

 

StormTotalSnowRange.png

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From their twitter they seem to be leaning towards a lot of qpf being lost to rain/sleet keeping totals down as a result.

 

I wouldn't be confident in this.  I'd be more worried about the heavier precip bands missing us farther to the south than I would that it won't get cold enough to snow.  This next batch of cold air means business for the end of the week, and it wouldn't surprise me that it gets here a little quicker then expected once the front moves through.

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New BOX map, quite frankly, this makes no sense considering the trends we saw re. the first wave at on the 12z guidance. This map is essentially throwing out all other guidance but the NAM, which is a dangerous dangerous dangerous proposition.

 

I also think they've got way too wide a 1-2 area, the northern cutoff of it is decent but all guidance suggests a relatively sharp rampup from nothing to 2-4".

post-8652-0-02402000-1425496374_thumb.pn

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Not sure what's going on there today , but if they are reading this thread.. Then hopefully they realize what's going on

 

I'd be deeply worried if they spent a lot of time reading this thread for forecast guidance.

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Based on the new box storm total map, it was bullish to think that even the immediate coast would get a warning.  

 

They know what they're doing, and I'm more inclined to think they are right, than my ignorant weenie optimism, but the explanation in the discussion would have made more sense last night, so its a bit confusing.

 

StormTotalSnowRange.png

 

That map is going to give Kevin a heart attack. 

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New BOX map, quite frankly, this makes no sense considering the trends we saw re. the first wave at on the 12z guidance. This map is essentially throwing out all other guidance but the NAM, which is a dangerous dangerous dangerous proposition.

 

I also think they've got way too wide a 1-2 area, the northern cutoff of it is decent but all guidance suggests a relatively sharp rampup from nothing to 2-4".

The 3-4" and 4-6" ranges will probably end up a little farther north then what this map is showing, but we're only looking at 25-30 miles of movement.

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