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TheSnowman

Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5

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That's really juicy. Still not sure we don't suck NW wind dry air disaster for awhile , but the trend since 6z has been a bit wetter. What a PITA storm.

Cweat special its his parting gift for us to microanalyze

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At least for BOS, they have that sneaky not-quite-saturated look that Ekster hates so much.

 

Right but what the bufkit for what run of what...

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I just said 3-6 m 84 s/e , appears I may be under

 

You said it could easily bump back north another 50 miles yesterday after the south trends at 12z

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Matches the RGEM pretty well for SNE

 

I think the takeaway right now is a very late-in-the-game north shift... almost everything has bumped up in its latest run, now, no?

 

The wetter the better, it seems, to get this done.

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I think the takeaway right now is a very late-in-the-game north shift... almost everything has bumped up in its latest run, now, no?

 

The wetter the better, it seems, to get this done.

 

And the JMA. Crazy Uncle. GGEM. Nav-a-who. What's that one with an E?

 

Oh wait, darn, we don't have the 12z NAM though. Or the 15z SREFs.

 

Decisions, decisions...

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At least for BOS, they have that sneaky not-quite-saturated look that Ekster hates so much.

Glad to know others get a bad feeling when that shows up. It's been off and on for a few runs now along the northern fringe of precip shield even in locations that were getting decent qpf. Yday the GFS had the best omega around 450 hpa around here with an awfully dry look from 850 hpa to sfc.

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I think we will soon see one of the quickest changes to the BOX snow maps this winter, along with a change in their outlook, along with some advisories/warnings, lol.  What recent piece of guidance could they use to back up their current stance?

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Get those advisories, at least, up on the board asap upton.

 

Eh, it's usually telling when the folks who get paid to do this stuff are the ones who aren't honking one bit.

 

It could be a really lackluster bunch of spittle; for some -- myself included -- the point is what we can get to close in on the BOS record.

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Basically a GFS/GGEM/Euro blend, tossed UKMET/RGEM as wet outliers and NAM as the dry one. I'm more worried that this busts low than high however.

Airglow, any thoughts of redoing the map based on 18z compendium?

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Eh, it's usually telling when the folks who get paid to do this stuff are the ones who aren't honking one bit.

It could be a really lackluster bunch of spittle; for some -- myself included -- the point is what we can get to close in on the BOS record.

Point is, I'm not in a WWA but I should be...and THAT is very important to my pysche.

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Eh, it's usually telling when the folks who get paid to do this stuff are the ones who aren't honking one bit.

 

It could be a really lackluster bunch of spittle; for some -- myself included -- the point is what we can get to close in on the BOS record.

 

I'd be more cautious up there. Down in the southern zones, they are banking on 4 to 1 ratios since the latest consensus on guidance is 0.5" qpf to the CT/MA border.

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Airglow, any thoughts of redoing the map based on 18z compendium?

 

Compendium is hereafter a banned term in these forums.

 

We appreciate your understanding as we work toward a better future for me/us/royal we.

 

-- great moogly googly

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Glad to know others get a bad feeling when that shows up. It's been off and on for a few runs now along the northern fringe of precip shield even in locations that were getting decent qpf. Yday the GFS had the best omega around 450 hpa around here with an awfully dry look from 850 hpa to sfc.

 

 

It goes back to the unfavorable sfc/BL flow. This is why if I'm within 30-40 miles of the northern edge of the precip shield as depicted on QPF maps, I'd be nervous.

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Glad to know others get a bad feeling when that shows up. It's been off and on for a few runs now along the northern fringe of precip shield even in locations that were getting decent qpf. Yday the GFS had the best omega around 450 hpa around here with an awfully dry look from 850 hpa to sfc.

yea they were pretty ugly but I imagine thats all changed

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I think we will soon see one of the quickest changes to the BOX snow maps this winter, along with a change in their outlook, along with some advisories/warnings, lol.  What recent piece of guidance could they use to back up their current stance?

 

I wouldn't bet the farm on the WFO wholesale changing the forecast based on 18z.

 

If 00z continues the north wobbles, then you'll see changes. This wouldn't be the first happy hour that disappointed come game time.

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I'd be more cautious up there. Down in the southern zones, they are banking on 4 to 1 ratios since the latest consensus on guidance is 0.5" qpf to the CT/MA border.

 

I don't know if I'd call .5" to the border a "consensus" so much as something "barely featured" on -- what -- two models in the late game?

 

This is still a messy squeaker until proven otherwise. But it's our messy squeaker. With upside.

 

As for advisories... who cares.

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I don't know if I'd call .5" to the border a "consensus" so much as something "barely featured" on -- what -- two models in the late game?

 

I don't know if you would either. I also don't know if you look at any of the models.

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I wouldn't bet the farm on the WFO wholesale changing the forecast based on 18z.

 

If 00z continues the north wobbles, then you'll see changes. This wouldn't be the first happy hour that disappointed come game time.

I need a lousy.25 to join the mile high club. Have the Patron chilin, if I have to stay up to 2 am , oh well.

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It goes back to the unfavorable sfc/BL flow. This is why if I'm within 30-40 miles of the northern edge of the precip shield as depicted on QPF maps, I'd be nervous.

 

RAP actually dries BOS out below 800 mb between 09z and 15z tomorrow. Not what you're looking for unless you expect all the 06-12z QPF to fall between 06 and 09z.

 

Now you're introducing a lot of caveats to the forecast. Not ideal when bumping up totals and expanding headlines.

 

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I wouldn't bet the farm on the WFO wholesale changing the forecast based on 18z.

 

If 00z continues the north wobbles, then you'll see changes. This wouldn't be the first happy hour that disappointed come game time.

Problem with waiting for the 0Zs is that most people will be asleep after having seen the meager advisories or lack thereof, only to awake to a new regime...  Might reek havoc with the morning plans, etc... or not.. but should at least be a consideration.  Upton's playing it the same way as Box; middletown and shelton dont even have an advisory...  Those areas might have to go from nothing to a warning.

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