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Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5


TheSnowman

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Euro says 5" ish, UKMET probably does it verbatim but I'd want to see one more bump north at 18z to feel comfortable pulling the trigger. 

 

 

Reasoning?

.50+ to the border..factor in another bumper two north as models sense they were too strong with confluence..and it gets fluffier as time goes on so ratios go up. 6+ seems likely IMO

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What a complex set up, still not sure the handling of these multiple waves is finalized.

 

To be clear:

1st wave: 6z-12z Thurs, roughly Thurs AM

2nd/3rd wave: 18z Thurs, roughly Thurs afternoon-evening

 

Yesterday I thought the 2nd/3rd wave could have better potential for our region as it had best potential for interaction with northern stream energy.

 

But now models seem to be emphasizing wave 1 and squashing waves 2/3, and this may be because baroclinic zone is even further southeast by the time waves 2/3 arrive.

 

All in all, GFS is not that far behind, just a tick north on wave 1 and it has pretty similar impact on our region as Euro. It similarly emphasizes wave 1 and squashes waves 2/3. It squashes waves 2/3 even more than Euro, but the impact there is more significant for NYC-Philly than for SNE.

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.50+ to the border..factor in another bumper two north as models sense they were too strong with confluence..and it gets fluffier as time goes on so ratios go up. 6+ seems likely IMO

 

Why would you factor in something that hasn't happened yet.  It's like forecasting based on a forecast.

 

I think its more likely that southern regions get a warning.  And the rest will be advisories.  Box has been great at not over steering as the models veer this way and that. 

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Why would you factor in something that hasn't happened yet. It's like forecasting based on a forecast.

I think its more likely that southern regions get a warning. And the rest will be advisories. Box has been great at not over steering as the models veer this way and that.

Just because I don't believe it's done moving north. I could be totally wrong.. But models love to overestimate confluence in the days leading up to storms
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Just because I don't believe it's done moving north. I could be totally wrong.. But models love to overestimate confluence in the days leading up to storms

 

 

Is that why we've seen so many storms trend SE at the last minute this winter?

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The watch/warning/advisory conjecture is fun. Especially when I already have a good idea what the true outcome will be. :devilsmiley:

 

Hahaha.

 

Well, I hope I'm wrong, BOX have been really good this year, and I'd love for a bigger event for everyone (and myself of course).  That said, I don't think I've ever been able to cross country ski on headlines alone.

 

I get more than 6" from this and I'm going to cross country ski around ocean drive.  Should take me a few hrs.

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Not like we have a couple more days for this to trend north, it's pretty much go time...it is what it is, wishful thinking aside.

 

 

You could conceivably inch this another 25-30 miles north at this lead time...but you certainly wouldn't count on it as part of your reasoning for issuing warnings up to the pike or even N CT/N RI

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You could conceivably inch this another 25-30 miles north at this lead time...but you certainly wouldn't count on it as part of your reasoning for issuing warnings up to the pike or even N CT/N RI

 

Me personally here: I wouldn't have 80% confidence if I'm banking on a 25 mile shift north to verify warnings.

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When winter is young it's all filet steak, but as the days go by, you have to move on to the cheap cuts, to paraphrase M. Gustave.

 

What a banner reference!

 

I don't necessarily subscribe to that particular angle, however; all snow is good snow and my snow is best snow.

 

Rather, the degree of excitement and/or anxiety I'm experiencing over possible snowfall right now is usually reserved for situations with considerably more accumulation upside.

 

It's all about the record, though. I would readily sell most of you to Satan this evening just to move the needle ever so slightly into the "more than enough" category. But, alas. He wasn't interested.

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You could conceivably inch this another 25-30 miles north at this lead time...but you certainly wouldn't count on it as part of your reasoning for issuing warnings up to the pike or even N CT/N RI

Agree. My only concern is this is rush hour tomorrow along the south coast. While that doesn't factor in to meeting warning criteria, I think advisories are generally brushed aside by the public. 95 and Merritt in CT will be a complete cluster screwjob tomorrow morning.

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