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Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5


TheSnowman

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Definitely better than 12z...

 

QPF from 00z tomorrow night through the end of the event (I picked 00z because even the south coast should be going over to snow by then...the bit of QPF for them in the afternoon is likely rain):

 

0.10" line goes right along the northern MA border with NH/VT than back S of ALB.

0.25" line is directly through BOS-ORH-CEF

0.50" line is PYM-WST and follows the Merritt once it reaches I-91 longitude.

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Definitely better than 12z...

 

QPF from 00z tomorrow night through the end of the event (I picked 00z because even the south coast should be going over to snow by then...the bit of QPF for them in the afternoon is likely rain):

 

0.10" line goes right along the northern MA border with NH/VT than back S of ALB.

0.25" line is directly through BOS-ORH-CEF

0.50" line is PYM-WST and follows the Merritt once it reaches I-91 longitude.

Thanks for staying up Will.

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Euro improved, and the southward trend stopped with most models.  Still, what we end up with is a pretty significant model spread, quite close to the event.  Not that novel a conundrum with this winter really.

We get into the good stuff on that Euro run, so does NYC actually.

 

I'm not sure who in NYC is going to be so trusting of the Euro though, after their massive bust.

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Euro improved, and the southward trend stopped with most models. Still, what we end up with is a pretty significant model spread, quite close to the event. Not that novel a conundrum with this winter really.

We get into the good stuff on that Euro run, so does NYC actually.

I'm not sure who in NYC is going to be so trusting of the Euro though, after their massive bust.

The euro is not the outlier here, its the GFS, that's the difference.

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6z NAM gonna raise a scare down in Philly-NYC...

 

This system is so complex: At least 3 pulses of energy riding the front.

Right now looks like the first 2 pulses miss us.

 

I'm intrigued by the potential of the 3rd and last pulse to have some interaction with northern stream energy that will be pretty close by the time this 3rd pulse moves south of us 21zThurs-0zFri. 

 

The 3 pulses have trended more separate, and I think the more delayed the 3rd pulse is, the more potential it could have to interact with the northern stream energy.

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If you had to make one..what would you forecast for amounts north of 90 and south of 90?

 

I'm busy looking at other stuff, but the pike might be the dividing line between flurries and an inch or two. If I had to, maybe blend 6z GFS and euro/rgem..but the flags are out.  6z GFS makes sense to me, but am aware it did tick north. I suppose Euro and RGEM have to be taken into consideration given how reliable they can be....but like I said...I think I may take those with heavy heavy caution flags. 

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Having trouble buying euro and rgem. RGEM is almost a toaster bath for the pike anyways.

Would be funny, if this is just wet flakes falling and not accumulating. I asked about BL temps before but if this is light , we may have trouble in BOS until 430 or so to stack some light snow and chip away at record

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