Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 lol, what a sophisticated algorithm IF 850 <= 0 and 2M <= 3, then SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is what I'm looking forward to...some real rippage This is a tasty run. Only .2-.3 falls between 6-12z. Sure looks like a snow sounding by 12z. Around .60 falls after 12. Very nice widespread event. Warn criteria for the vast majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is a tasty run. Only .2-.3 falls between 6-12z. Sure looks like a snow sounding by 12z. Around .60 falls after 12. Very nice widespread event. Warn criteria for the vast majority. One more Euro run before our Watch gets issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking at soundings and thicknesses for the last 2 GFS runs and the 0z NAM, I think a good rule of thumb for this storm is that we flip to snow when thicknesses drop below 546. That is pretty much the way it worked on those runs. so for the Euro, MRB flips around 9z, IAD/BWI around 11z, and DCA around 13z. With several hours of sleet before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 LOL. LWX guesstimate maps for DCA range between 0.0 and 10 inches. The 6zNAM is trying to give me about 8". And DC TV7 just spotted the snow bandwagon in the distance. Please, snowlovers, take it all away from here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 LOL. LWX guesstimate maps for DCA range between 0.0 and 10 inches. The 6zNAM is trying to give me about 8". And DC TV7 just spotted the snow bandwagon in the distance. Please, snowlovers, take it all away from here! Think you mean the gfs; nam is almost an all sleet/zr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 New GFS is incredible with snowfall Thursday! 12 hours of moderate accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The run to run consistency for both the gfs and the euro is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishStorm Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Something's gotta give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Dry out this way...hoping for an earlier flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sterlings first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nice 1st call map from LWX - it would be cool to finish up with an area-wide decent snow with no one getting left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 06Z GFS is a shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 06Z GFS is a shellacking. another great term. up there with crushed, pasting, beat down, and stone cold snow assassin. it does look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 6z gfs is the best run yet area wide. It is a total mauling. Would be 6+ for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 6z gfs is the best run yet area wide. It is a total mauling. Would be 6+ for everyone. Any chance for someone to double digit lolli? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Any chance for someone to double digit lolli? According to the 6Z GFS as you move NE of Baltimore, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like sleet switchover around 6-7z. At 9z at DCA, all levels below 0 except 800 which is 0.5. By 12z it's -.5 so we probably flip between 10-11z to all snow. It looks like a slightly colder run than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like sleet switchover around 6-7z. At 9z at DCA, all levels below 0 except 800 which is 0.5. By 12z it's -.5 so we probably flip between 10-11z to all snow. It looks like a slightly colder run than 00z. Using the TwisterData sounding for Silver Spring even 6z looks like a marginal snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 According to the 6Z GFS as you move NE of Baltimore, yes. Sweet. I'll keep my personal backyard bar set at 6. Anything more is pure white gravy. Ok I'm going to be that guy--wouldn't ratios continue to improve during the event as temps continue to drop? Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sweet. I'll keep my personal backyard bar set at 6. Anything more is pure white gravy. Ok I'm going to be that guy--wouldn't ratios continue to improve during the event as temps continue to drop? Just a thought. BWI is all snow at 1AM on the 6z GFS so here's the precip map after 6Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model GFS MOS for BWI after 6Z is .97" EDIT: sounding for mby yard is all snow at 6Z, BWI I'll post in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 BWI is all snow at 1AM on the 6z GFS so here's the precip map after 6Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model GFS MOS for BWI after 6Z is .97" EDIT: sounding for mby yard is all snow at 6Z, BWI I'll post in a minute yep, BWI all snow too (assuming no warming between 750 and 800mb and 800 and 850mb, which I don't see on the skewt) LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1010 72 0.2 -0.6 94 0.9 -0.1 358 13 272.6 273.2 272.5 282.3 3.61 1 1000 154 -0.2 -1.0 95 0.8 -0.6 359 19 272.9 273.5 272.6 282.5 3.55 2 950 562 -3.3 -3.5 98 0.2 -3.4 352 28 273.9 274.4 272.5 282.3 3.11 3 900 990 -2.5 -2.8 98 0.3 -2.6 316 30 279.0 279.6 275.9 288.6 3.45 4 850 1445 -0.7 -1.0 98 0.2 -0.9 279 29 285.4 286.1 280.1 297.3 4.19 5 800 1931 0.0 -0.2 98 0.2 -0.1 255 30 291.2 292.0 283.3 304.8 4.71 6 750 2447 -0.9 -1.0 99 0.1 -1.0 253 33 295.6 296.4 285.1 309.5 4.73 7 700 2997 -2.4 -2.5 99 0.2 -2.4 242 40 299.8 300.7 286.5 313.4 4.53 8 650 3585 -3.9 -4.1 99 0.1 -4.0 228 54 304.5 305.3 288.1 317.9 4.36 9 600 4215 -6.1 -6.3 99 0.1 -6.2 226 66 309.0 309.8 289.2 321.5 3.99 10 550 4892 -9.7 -9.8 99 0.1 -9.7 235 77 312.6 313.3 289.8 323.2 3.32 11 500 5622 -14.0 -14.2 98 0.2 -14.1 246 91 315.9 316.4 290.0 324.3 2.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs is honestly about 10" for BWI, mtn, APG, dmh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 another great term. up there with crushed, pasting, beat down, and stone cold snow assassin. it does look nice. shellacking is an old term for getting beat, heck even bho used it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 6Z GFS BWI http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI DCA http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDCA IAD http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs is honestly about 10" for BWI, mtn, APG, dmh DT's 8-12" First Call suddenly looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 6Z GFS BWI http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI DCA http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDCA IAD http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KIAD Mitch, is the total precip column for the 3-hr period ending at the specified time? ETA: because if it is, GFS says this is a 6-inch event even at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DT's 8-12" First Call suddenly looks pretty goodI wasn't going to put it out there yet, but for this one I'm pretty bullish as well. Maybe not to the tune of DT and 8-12 but I do understand rates will be very formidable. Someone is going to pick up 4-5" in 3 hours and I feel as though that'll be right along the BWI area. That should help them make up for not changing as early as the MAapgirl, sparky, losetoa crew. The snow falling outside that 3 hour frame will also be accompanied by an area of intense subtropical moisture flow, so in most cases this will have good rates after the flip all the way til the end. Early thoughts include 5-8" for BWI, 4-7" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The flip does look like it's right at 6z with very little sleet. This would be all or nearly all snow http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mitch, is the total precip column for the 3-hr period ending at the specified time? ETA: because if it is, GFS says this is a 6-inch event even at DCA YES and YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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