Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 that seems right. unfortunately it is only 1-2" after 12z....the "fun" is what happens overnight. GFS says a ~4 hour period of torrential sleet. Sounds like it could be a noisy night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Whoops too slow... Thanks Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If dca gets less than 4....it would be very dissapointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mitch? OKV please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If dca gets less than 4....it would be very dissapointing Doesn't matter. You said 4-6 was like 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 For gods sake Mitch just post the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Do OKV and MRB Mitch you need precise lat/long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like mrb would be snow by h54 based on sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So the shocked face for hr 60 was because it was better than the NAM or the amount of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 At 9z, DCA is 1.2 at 800 and 0.7 at 750. By 12z, we're -.4 and -.8, respectively so we're all snow by 12z. We probably flip to snow around 11z? Okay, so the big ? is how much QPF after the changeover. I would think a good first guess 'lower bound' of the forecast snow range would be whatever the liquid QPF is from 12-18Z, multiplied by 10, assuming (at that point) at least a 10-1 SLR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 For gods sake Mitch just post the linkAlso pull up KRAP while you're at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 you need precise lat/long 39.27, 78.17 My house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So the shocked face for hr 60 was because it was better than the NAM or the amount of sleet? People don't know how to use the face. It should be restricted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DCA 54 hrs. LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1010 58 0.9 0.2 96 0.6 0.6 17 9 273.2 273.9 273.2 283.6 3.85 1 1000 141 0.3 -0.3 95 0.6 0.1 16 14 273.5 274.1 273.2 283.6 3.73 2 950 550 -2.7 -2.8 99 0.1 -2.7 3 23 274.5 275.0 273.1 283.4 3.28 3 900 979 -2.2 -2.4 99 0.2 -2.3 323 23 279.2 279.8 276.2 289.1 3.55 4 850 1435 0.4 0.1 98 0.3 0.3 253 16 286.5 287.3 281.1 299.4 4.52 5 800 1923 1.6 0.8 95 0.7 1.2 238 29 292.8 293.7 284.4 307.6 5.08 6 750 2444 1.4 -0.3 88 1.7 0.5 242 38 298.1 299.0 286.4 312.9 4.99 Is this cold enough for non accumulating sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 About the same at bwi. Both are snow at h60. nah, BWI is better...very likely all snow at 57 hrs., 58 at the latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DC screwzone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Can we pin down ratios at all? maybe 8:1 at the flip, and 15:1 towards the end. Average of 10:1, given the most intense precip will have lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 For gods sake Mitch just post the link there is no direct link knucklehead or I would have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 39.27, 78.17 My house http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php Bookmark it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS has the entire column at or below freezing at 06z Thursday imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 39.27, 78.17 My house great, now I have the Cruise missile coordinates I've been dying to have lol here's 51 hrs. you don't need 54 because you are comfortably all snow and remain that way until the end LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 144 SFC 988 242 1.2 0.8 97 0.4 1.0 357 4 275.3 276.0 274.8 286.5 4.10 2 950 557 0.3 -0.9 92 1.2 -0.2 335 16 277.5 278.1 275.5 287.8 3.76 3 900 989 -1.5 -1.9 97 0.4 -1.7 296 19 279.9 280.6 276.7 290.2 3.69 4 850 1444 -1.8 -2.0 98 0.3 -1.9 264 24 284.3 284.9 279.2 295.2 3.87 5 800 1928 -0.0 -0.8 95 0.7 -0.4 251 32 291.1 291.9 283.1 304.2 4.53 6 750 2446 -0.4 -1.0 95 0.6 -0.7 253 40 296.2 297.0 285.4 310.1 4.73 7 700 2996 -2.4 -2.9 97 0.4 -2.6 254 46 299.8 300.6 286.4 313.1 4.42 8 650 3582 -4.6 -4.8 98 0.3 -4.7 245 55 303.8 304.6 287.5 316.4 4.11 9 600 4210 -6.9 -7.0 99 0.2 -7.0 237 68 308.2 308.9 288.7 319.9 3.76 10 550 4886 -10.1 -10.2 99 0.1 -10.2 237 75 312.1 312.7 289.5 322.3 3.19 11 500 5615 -14.2 -14.3 99 0.1 -14.2 240 82 315.7 316.2 290.0 324.0 2.53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php Bookmark it problem is, you won't get the numbers there until the run is finished I'm getting them off DuPage College, where they are available simultaneously to the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think it's going to be a grande finale to a grand run. Think 60 might happen briefly Wed, then another arctic mega front drops temps 25-30* in 4 hours and it's cold aloft quicker than that, snowing hard at 34/35. DC gets 6-12 hours of snow from midnight to dawn/noon. At night, March can do it bigtime;it's daylight that's bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM is way better than the 12z run and is actually a frozen pummeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There is a lot of qpf in that GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM is way better than the 12z run and is actually a frozen pummeling Whatever comes down...sleet or snow is going to fall at intense rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm going to go with 7-1 or 8-1 ratios for the entire sleet/snow event resulting in an area wide 3-6" total ice/snow accumulation, with roughly 0.50 - 0.75" qpf total frozen precip from Fredericksburg on north. I suspect a few 6"+ slant stick obs will come in too, but will be the exception to the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm only out to 54 on GGEM but looks much better than 12z and farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Agreed with matt, the ggem looks solid, good rates, heavy qpf, and colder than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Whatever comes down...sleet or snow is going to fall at intense rates. The GGEM is not a very skilled model compared to GFS/EURO, especially this winter. But its solution is way better than earlier today. The globals are now all kind of similar in that they thump us in the cold sector. It is just a matter of snow vs sleet. But our heaviest precip comes in frozen form as opposed to heavy rain transitioning to a brief period of heavy snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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