UNCCmetgrad Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tend to agree. I don't look at it either. It's like it has all of these whacked out members that come together into a mean that, if it ends up being correct, it's for the wrong reasons. totally agree here. I've often looked at its QPF just hours before an event and think how can there be this much spread in this short of a lead time. Its mean QPF is often useful though. My rule is to cut it by a third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tend to agree. I don't look at it either. It's like it has all of these whacked out members that come together into a mean that, if it ends up being correct, it's for the wrong reasons.it's good when you look at them individually. There is usually two camps on them and when you get within 24 hours they get pretty close. It's been gsp favorite model for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well, the SREF is either a genius model or out to lunch. Looks like it did bump snowfall totals back up here with some ridiculous QPF. Looks like the mean is 7" with most members evenly distributed between 2-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WRAL says there is a chance for someone in our area to get some snow wednesday night after starting as rain. Yes. WRAL has a viewing area that stretches nearly to the southern coast. The southern viewing area may start as rain. Wake County will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Does it really matter what the temp is now, if tomorrow will be bright and sunny for most of the day in RDU. Does it matter if it is bright and sunny but still cold? The snow is hanging around longer today than expected. It will be colder tonight than expected, so it probably won't get that warm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I honestly dont think we'll have a good handle on accumulations until we see how much we warm tomorrow. If it gets out of hand, we're in trouble. If the snow from today keeps temps down, we could be in for an even better show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well, the SREF is either a genius model or out to lunch. Looks like it did bump snowfall totals back up here with some ridiculous QPF. Looks like the mean is 7" with most members evenly distributed between 2-12". I guess they don't mean anything but the plumes for MWK are up to 9 I have no idea if they are useful? Some says yes, and some says no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 343 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 ...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES AND THE TEMPERATURE COOLS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS BY THE AREA. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE EAST AND TAPER OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF WHERE THE DIVISION BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SITUATED WHICH COULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELBERT...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>010-012>014-250445- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0003.150225T2300Z-150226T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0004.150225T2100Z-150226T1200Z/ RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL- DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-LAURENS-CHESTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA... ROYSTON...LAVONIA...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL... REED CREEK...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...CROSSNORE... SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT... STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...MARS HILL...MARSHALL... HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY... NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...SHELBY... KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD... KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...TRINITY... WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...NINE TIMES...PUMPKINTOWN... ROCKY BOTTOM...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...GOWENSVILLE... MARIETTA...TIGERVILLE...SENECA...EASLEY...CLEMSON...GREENVILLE... TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG... GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION... CHESTER...GREAT FALLS 343 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. * HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW ON HIGHWAYS THAT WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW ON HIGHWAYS. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I honestly dont think we'll have a good handle on accumulations until we see how much we warm tomorrow. If it gets out of hand, we're in trouble. If the snow from today keeps temps down, we could be in for an even better show. It has been discussed to death how the temps tomorrow won't be that big of a deal. The soil temp was already right at freezing before today's snow. And temps will crash when the precip starts. And it is not going to be that warm tomorrow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't get the obsession w/ the sref. It's an ensemble of NAM members. Everyone know's how extreme the NAM and other various hi-res sr models can be. One member showing wound up SLP will throw off the entire precip type forecast mean. Therefore these snow avgs are highly unreliable on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just went under WSW!!! WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF THE TWO STATES.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND LOWER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH INTO VIRGINIA.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS SNOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like WPC thinks this thing rounds the corner at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looking at the trends im gonna not be conservative and say 5-7 inches for Mooresville as a compromise between all the models. (20mi N of CLT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF shows rain/snow start for RDU... Then mainly snow. Transitioning to sleet, and then tapering off as snow. RAH needs to get out there winter storm watch. Taking a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like WPC thinks this thing rounds the corner at this point. LC seems to think so too last time I checked on his FB posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM/SREF vs everything else Maybe, just maybe everyone else isn't wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tend to agree. I don't look at it either. It's like it has all of these whacked out members that come together into a mean that, if it ends up being correct, it's for the wrong reasons. exactly. I don't bother looking at them myself unless i'm just really bored and want something to look at for that very reason. Hasn't stopped people from obsessively posting it. In fact, i don't think i've ever seen the sref mentioned this much. Which is sort of odd to me considering how it arrives at it's end result. I don't get the obsession w/ the sref. It's an ensemble of NAM members. Everyone know's how extreme the NAM and other various hi-res sr models can be. One member showing wound up SLP will throw off the entire precip type forecast mean. Therefore these snow avgs are highly unreliable on it. Bingo. I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Fishel just posted on Facebook he is not convinced everything that falls will be snow and not everything will stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Per Van Denton at Fox8 in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Today's cunundrum: The NWS in Raleigh says our area may be hard-pressed to see snow. Meanwhile, the NWS in Wilmington has placed counties to our south under a Winter Storm Watch for up to 3 inches of snow. I gotta believe they're looking at the same models. Who to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Per Van Denton at Fox8 in the Triad. Looks a little high in the triad if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just for fun I'm going w/ 4-7 for RDU w/ precip starting Wednesday around 9pm and ending around 8am Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Anybody got any updated snow totals from the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Fishel just posted on Facebook he is not convinced everything that falls will be snow and not everything will stick. not sure what to say that hasnt been said. i have 2" of powder outside right now. pretty sure there wont be an issue w/ snow sticking. and rdu is fine temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 question...I know Brad and Matt East does it, but does most of yall's stations put out there personal forecasts on graphics that they make? I know we always see model output, but do many take the time to make there own maps? just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Liking my sisters chances for a 6" snowfall in Cullowhee. Tougher forecast for a friend in Gray Court, SC south of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I mean...there HAS to be a reason Fishel is going so low. and it isn't just for fun. I think he is concerned with temperatures struggling to get to freezing in the wake county area and how that is going to impact accumulation and/or type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just for fun I'm going w/ 4-7 for RDU w/ precip starting Wednesday around 9pm and ending around 8am Thursday. im thinking about the same. light snow transitioning to mod/hvy overnight. 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Fishel just posted on Facebook he is not convinced everything that falls will be snow and not everything will stick. There should be a finger of snow/precip that extends well out ahead of the main system. the nam and gfs have it cutting across north ga and sc. Gfs/nam seem to allow precip to reach the ground with this feature from shortly after 15z in the west to 18z in sc. This feature should help keep surface temps from warming too much tomorrow, especially if it starts sooner. Depending on how cold it gets tonight, those under this might not get much above the mid 30s...which obviously would be huge as it would take much less to drop surface temps and get accumulations...as opposed to prior runs showing temps into the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gotta loved FFC's opening line in their latest AFD. Sums it up nicely I think... HIGHLY BUSTABLE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO KEEP CONFIDENCE SLOWLY IMPROVING. BIGGEST UNKNOWN RIGHT NOW REMAINS THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH WILL DRIVE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND THE TRANSITIONS BETWEEN THEM. MODELS ARE ALL PUSHING THE THERMAL PROFILES INTO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME ACROSS ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA AND I DO BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING BETWEEN VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW/RAIN. HOWEVER STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SNOWFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE AND EVEN WHEN THE PRECIPITATION IS MIXED. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. BASED ON TEMPERATURES FROM THE HI-REZ MODELS WE END UP GENERATING SNOWFALL TOTALS REACHING WARNING LEVELS ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA WITH A STEEP GRADIENT TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHOSEN TO UPGRADE THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...AND NOT ADD ANY COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH EDGE AS EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. INTERESTS SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA NEED TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR ANY CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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